Just read a good point...when interest rates were rocketing up last year, we all thought something was likely to 'break' because of rates' rapid rise. Housing, banks, stocks, something.
But nothing broke. Except crypto in a way I guess. Sure stocks fell, but nothing too crazy.
In my view that is a function of the stimulus that continues to be added to the economy. Sure financial conditions have tightened, but there is still enough Government spending to give the aura that all is fine.
We hear over and over that econ activity has slowed down dramatically...but the Fed's GDP Now prediction for the 1Q just went up to solid growth.
Latest estimate: 2.1 percent — February 7, 2023
The bad news is that inflation is just not coming down...seems to be stuck in the 4-5% range per the Fed's Inflation Nowcast. Which may not great for stocks. Although steady 4% inflation doesn't seem to have much effect on the economy.
On the other hand, wasn't inflation 4% for much of the 80s? Stonks did ok then so maybe they will do ok here. Maybe 4% is a sweet spot for the economy, with debts deflating but giant demand for bonds keeping interest rates relatively low.
Couple of anecdotes, transmission shop had work overload, took a month to get car back. The shop lot was packed with cars, and the owner noted an unfilled technician vacancy. Scheduled oil change same vehicle, two weeks out to first appointment. Got right in for Porsche service. We had a service technician out to replace a dryer belt $225, and a microwave light $190. I had similar service calls in the past, and I would say a good $50-75 less for similar parts and labor. In our neighborhood, the house I noted earlier remains unsold, six plus months out. It is the only house for sale in our development. At the market top there were a half dozen for sale at any given time, and turnover in weeks. The current house on the market was listed about a year after the wife died. He missed the listing peak by about six months. If I had to guess, it won’t sell before a 30-40% cut to peak pricing. Currently listed about 20-25% below the peak.
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Couple of anecdotes, transmission shop had work overload, took a month to get car back. The shop lot was packed with cars, and the owner noted an unfilled technician vacancy. Scheduled oil change same vehicle, two weeks out to first appointment. Got right in for Porsche service. We had a service technician out to replace a dryer belt $225, and a microwave light $190. I had similar service calls in the past, and would say a good $50-75 more for similar parts and labor. In our neighborhood, the house I noted earlier remains unsold, six plus months out. It is the only house for sale in our development. At the market top there were a half dozen for sale at any given time, and turnover in weeks. The current house on the market was listed about a year after the wife died. He missed the listing peak by about six months. If I had to guess, it won’t sell before a 30-40% cut to peak pricing. Currently listed about 20-25% below the peak.
Igy - Do you know if there is a statute of limitations on recalls? I have been looking around and they are all over the place. I will call Acura later and see what they say.
We hear over and over that econ activity has slowed down dramatically...but the Fed's GDP Now prediction for the 1Q just went up to solid growth.
Latest estimate: 2.1 percent — February 7, 2023
The bad news is that inflation is just not coming down...seems to be stuck in the 4-5% range per the Fed's Inflation Nowcast. Which may not great for stocks. Although steady 4% inflation doesn't seem to have much effect on the economy.
On the other hand, wasn't inflation 4% for much of the 80s? Stonks did ok then so maybe they will do ok here. Maybe 4% is a sweet spot for the economy, with debts deflating but giant demand for bonds keeping interest rates relatively low.
Agip - for most of the 80s inflation was around 4% except for '80 and '81 when it was in single digits. For most of the Trump presidency it was around 1.5%. The good ole days! LOL.
We hear over and over that econ activity has slowed down dramatically...but the Fed's GDP Now prediction for the 1Q just went up to solid growth.
Latest estimate: 2.1 percent — February 7, 2023
The bad news is that inflation is just not coming down...seems to be stuck in the 4-5% range per the Fed's Inflation Nowcast. Which may not great for stocks. Although steady 4% inflation doesn't seem to have much effect on the economy.
On the other hand, wasn't inflation 4% for much of the 80s? Stonks did ok then so maybe they will do ok here. Maybe 4% is a sweet spot for the economy, with debts deflating but giant demand for bonds keeping interest rates relatively low.
Agip - for most of the 80s inflation was around 4% except for '80 and '81 when it was in single digits. For most of the Trump presidency it was around 1.5%. The good ole days! LOL.
Just read a good point...when interest rates were rocketing up last year, we all thought something was likely to 'break' because of rates' rapid rise. Housing, banks, stocks, something.
But nothing broke. Except crypto in a way I guess. Sure stocks fell, but nothing too crazy.
Shows the resilience of the economy. So far.
Don't kid yourself, housing is pretty broken. The West Coast is in the thick of a crash. The rest of the country is on its way. Median time on market last year was less than a month where I live. Right now, it is 4 months. My neighbor's home has been on the market for three and a half months and they hardly get any people looking at their home. They have had open houses where two people come. A couple of doctors we know that live a couple blocks over made an offer on a horse property contingent on them selling their house about 6 months ago and still haven't had an offer on their home.
I have all my records on the Acura. The original transmission warranty extension was received October 2002, about six months after purchase. The coverage was extended to 7 years or 100,000 miles from 4 years or 50,000 miles on the torque converter. As the result of a class action lawsuit August 2006, the coverage was extended by 9 months and 9,000 miles. My vehicle was well beyond coverage, and if your vehicle is 2000-2003 TL I would assume the same.
We hear over and over that econ activity has slowed down dramatically...but the Fed's GDP Now prediction for the 1Q just went up to solid growth.
Latest estimate: 2.1 percent — February 7, 2023
The bad news is that inflation is just not coming down...seems to be stuck in the 4-5% range per the Fed's Inflation Nowcast. Which may not great for stocks. Although steady 4% inflation doesn't seem to have much effect on the economy.
On the other hand, wasn't inflation 4% for much of the 80s? Stonks did ok then so maybe they will do ok here. Maybe 4% is a sweet spot for the economy, with debts deflating but giant demand for bonds keeping interest rates relatively low.
Agip - for most of the 80s inflation was around 4% except for '80 and '81 when it was in single digits. For most of the Trump presidency it was around 1.5%. The good ole days! LOL.
Our first home purchase in 1979 was at 11.9% interest rate. We purchased a new vehicle in 1981 with an interest rate of 17%.
Agip - for most of the 80s inflation was around 4% except for '80 and '81 when it was in single digits. For most of the Trump presidency it was around 1.5%. The good ole days! LOL.
Our first home purchase in 1979 was at 11.9% interest rate. We purchased a new vehicle in 1981 with an interest rate of 17%.
OUCH!!!! That must have hurt. A guy talked to my wife and said our 2003 Acura TL recall would still be honored. I told her now way so we will see what happens. 12% interest rate - that is crazy.
Just read a good point...when interest rates were rocketing up last year, we all thought something was likely to 'break' because of rates' rapid rise. Housing, banks, stocks, something.
But nothing broke. Except crypto in a way I guess. Sure stocks fell, but nothing too crazy.
Shows the resilience of the economy. So far.
Don't kid yourself, housing is pretty broken. The West Coast is in the thick of a crash. The rest of the country is on its way. Median time on market last year was less than a month where I live. Right now, it is 4 months. My neighbor's home has been on the market for three and a half months and they hardly get any people looking at their home. They have had open houses where two people come. A couple of doctors we know that live a couple blocks over made an offer on a horse property contingent on them selling their house about 6 months ago and still haven't had an offer on their home.
nah housing had a bad few months but it is ticking back up again.
mortgage rates below 6% are, honestly, not that bad and most people think they will have a chance to refinance at lower rates over the next few years.
Homebuilding stocks are up massively, reflecting that. Up 16% in 2023 and even over the past year they've done great: +5%. Much better than the stock marekt.
That said, previous regional bubble spots have come back down to earth a bit. but the housing picture is looking up,not down.
Couple of anecdotes, transmission shop had work overload, took a month to get car back. The shop lot was packed with cars, and the owner noted an unfilled technician vacancy. Scheduled oil change same vehicle, two weeks out to first appointment. Got right in for Porsche service. We had a service technician out to replace a dryer belt $225, and a microwave light $190. I had similar service calls in the past, and I would say a good $50-75 less for similar parts and labor. In our neighborhood, the house I noted earlier remains unsold, six plus months out. It is the only house for sale in our development. At the market top there were a half dozen for sale at any given time, and turnover in weeks. The current house on the market was listed about a year after the wife died. He missed the listing peak by about six months. If I had to guess, it won’t sell before a 30-40% cut to peak pricing. Currently listed about 20-25% below the peak.
For a guy that paints his own house, I would have thought things like changing the oil and replacing belts and lights would be child’s play.
Couple of anecdotes, transmission shop had work overload, took a month to get car back. The shop lot was packed with cars, and the owner noted an unfilled technician vacancy. Scheduled oil change same vehicle, two weeks out to first appointment. Got right in for Porsche service. We had a service technician out to replace a dryer belt $225, and a microwave light $190. I had similar service calls in the past, and I would say a good $50-75 less for similar parts and labor. In our neighborhood, the house I noted earlier remains unsold, six plus months out. It is the only house for sale in our development. At the market top there were a half dozen for sale at any given time, and turnover in weeks. The current house on the market was listed about a year after the wife died. He missed the listing peak by about six months. If I had to guess, it won’t sell before a 30-40% cut to peak pricing. Currently listed about 20-25% below the peak.
For a guy that paints his own house, I would have thought things like changing the oil and replacing belts and lights would be child’s play.
I rebuilt a 1981 VW Diesel Rabbit and 1983 Renault Alliance engines during the summer of my coaching years 1990s. I have changed the oil on the Acura, however the Porsche is more difficult, you would need a lift. I have replaced heating element on a dryer, newer major appliances less friendly for a do-it-yourselfer. I could do it. Still reasonably flexible for my age, but auto service on the cold concrete is an issue even with a heated garage. Both of the autos need to be checked out by professional after recent investment in the tranny, and to preserve Porsche value. Even though I have no intention to do so, a future Porsche purchaser would like to have those records.
250 million contracts traded hands this week, the highest weekly volume in history. What you’ve got is a situation where the tail is wagging the dog. This is a significant event that deserves close attention.
Option Market Anomalies (Thread)
250 million contracts traded hands this week, the highest weekly volume in history. What you’ve got is a situation where the tail is wagging the dog.
This is a significant event that deserves close attention.
Extending recent findings from Barber et al. (2022) and Welch (2022), we document that retail investors from the discount broker Robinhood swarm into stocks wit
250 million contracts traded hands this week, the highest weekly volume in history. What you’ve got is a situation where the tail is wagging the dog. This is a significant event that deserves close attention.
right, so do you bet against the stupid or sigh and say they are too much to fight, and go along with it.
To name it, I am heavily in value rather than growth. I am underweight tech. That was a great thing in 2022 but in 2023 it has cost me a lot of relative performance. Do I throw in the towel on value and wade back into growth? Or figure that the wall street bets crowd plus the short-covering hedgies will eventually disappear and tech will stop outperforming.
Part of the hard part of investing is that it's not math...it's a quarter math and 3/4 pyschology and how well you can stick to strategy or conversely how well you can switch strategies if need be.
I don't know the answer. I *want* value to outperform because I like the idea that owning stocks at PEs of10-15 should do better than buying stocks at PEs of 30+...but if short covering hedgies and wall street bets thinks otherwise, I may lose out.
I rebuilt a 1981 VW Diesel Rabbit and 1983 Renault Alliance engines during the summer of my coaching years 1990s. I have changed the oil on the Acura, however the Porsche is more difficult, you would need a lift. I have replaced heating element on a dryer, newer major appliances less friendly for a do-it-yourselfer. I could do it. Still reasonably flexible for my age, but auto service on the cold concrete is an issue even with a heated garage. Both of the autos need to be checked out by professional after recent investment in the tranny, and to preserve Porsche value. Even though I have no intention to do so, a future Porsche purchaser would like to have those records.
Why do you need a lift for the Porsche? And a belt in a dryer is much simpler than a heating element. Almost as easy as a microwave bulb.
I rebuilt a 1981 VW Diesel Rabbit and 1983 Renault Alliance engines during the summer of my coaching years 1990s. I have changed the oil on the Acura, however the Porsche is more difficult, you would need a lift. I have replaced heating element on a dryer, newer major appliances less friendly for a do-it-yourselfer. I could do it. Still reasonably flexible for my age, but auto service on the cold concrete is an issue even with a heated garage. Both of the autos need to be checked out by professional after recent investment in the tranny, and to preserve Porsche value. Even though I have no intention to do so, a future Porsche purchaser would like to have those records.
Why do you need a lift for the Porsche? And a belt in a dryer is much simpler than a heating element. Almost as easy as a microwave bulb.
More amusing than interesting: there is now an ETF that seems to track buys and sells by elected Dems, and another to track buys and sells by elected Rs. Elected to congress that is.
