In my view QE is not rationl at all. Treasury issues bonds to cover deficit spending-Federal Reserve buys the bonds and moves to their balance sheet-interest rates fall and more lendable funds enter the financial markets- investors make imprudent investments seeking a normal investment return.
If I have $100 in my pocket, and I have not eaten in three days, I may gladly pay my $100 for a Big Mac. Likewise, in the current distorted market I may decide buying a Blue Chip dividend stock with a 3% yield is a better value than a 10 year Treasury Bond with a 2.25% coupon. However, the stock contains a great deal of more risk if it is priced incorrectly, why? Well, investors are yield starved.
No I am not making a judgement call on a buy in point. Rather my view is there is substantial downside risk with little upside potential at current valuation. Making no move is a decision.
There is no free lunch that isn't paid by someone. I came under criticism a few weeks back for noting that someone buys at the top and rides that investment down. In a normal market with full price disclosure the distortions are less and one can determine what is fair value.
in regards to quiting your day job, don't. If anything my advice to all is to scale backmyour risk and see how things play out. Years ago one of my managers told me: "the easiest way to lose a paycheck is to trade your own account.
Lastly, I believe the last two market lows give you potential downside targets if things get bad. The 1,100 S&P 500 is the last serious market correction in the fall of 2011. I believe median stock valuations have never ever been this high. I believe bond valuations have never ever been this high. Cash, short term bonds, and a smaller allocation to short stock positions are areas where I see value.