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PWNED!!!!
fisky wrote:
I charted the SPX last week and again this morning. The uptrend has stalled at Fib 61.8% with two failed attempts to move higher. I can't see anything that I'd follow one way or the other.
Subjectively, it looks like the FOMO crowd is now all in or taking a rest.
I was sort of part of the FOMO crowd and am now in a combination of all in and taking a rest. I have more cash on hand have decided to sit out with it for now after putting in damn near everything I had during the dip. What's been a little scary for me is that while some of my picks have done well, I am still at a net loss. I was up $6000 in one day at first and then again around April 30, but now I'm down some... It's stressful, but the stocks I bought were all down 40% or more from recent highs, some down 55% or more. Assuming they survive, I will likely do very well, but I've accepted there is real chance they won't survive. Even if my gamble pays off, I think in the future I will be much less cavalier... I exchanged half of my portfolio for individual stocks and sector ETFs from an S & P 500 index fund. Time will tell if I was a fool or a genius (reality is that I'm neither).
Igy, what does it say? Is it in support of some point you wish to make?
I read mainstream media for the most part. It makes me uncomfortable to think someone on the internet simply instructs me to read everything they come across.
It says small investors are buying stocks at record high valuations while economic fundamentals are at 1930s levels.
Here is a couple of fair value valuation calculations. S&P 500 2020 GAAP EPS forecasted at $95.50 multiplied by historic average Shiller CAPE of 16 would place current fair value at 1,529.44. That is assuming rebound in earnings Q3 and Q4 2020. A further reduction in earnings to $80.00 a share would drop fair value to 1,280. Typically the multiple drops as imbedded EPS is downgraded over time. Something the Bulls are ignoring for the moment. Using the same $80.00 EPS and a reasonable downgraded multiple of 12 results in a somewhat unthinkable but historically accurate $960.
Small investors hold a tiny fraction of all stocks.
Johannes wrote:
Small investors hold a tiny fraction of all stocks.
Supply liquidity to institutions, as in “sell to you.”
Thanks, Igy. I would think large institutions have a hard time making moves of any significance without thwarting the transaction they are trying to make. Due to it's shear size, it would move the offer price to its disadvantage.
The reason i say this is because i heard, years ago, that the small investor, unlike their institutional counterparts, has a discrete trading advantage in being able to move quickly and often, and their recommendation was to use this to your advantage. That advice stuck with me.
https://money.com/stock-ownership-10-percent-richest/Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Johannes wrote:
Small investors hold a tiny fraction of all stocks.
Supply liquidity to institutions, as in “sell to you.”
Sure, but smaller traders are the ones that lubricates the institutional trades. Why else do you see advertising for online tracing all day long on the financial channels? Provides the hype to make the system work.
Online “trading”....
Johannes wrote:
https://money.com/stock-ownership-10-percent-richest/Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Supply liquidity to institutions, as in “sell to you.”
Hey, LRC brain trust, what do you make of this except from the article?:
"The concentration of stock holdings among the rich, Wolff says, is due to the twin stock market busts of 2001 and 2008. While the middle class was scared off by these declines, he explains, wealthier investors were able to swoop in and increase their holdings."
So, one might rightly wonder, what are the wealthier (successful) investors doing in the wake of the Covid-19 market busts? LOL.
I would say a substantial rise is due to insiders stock based compensation via buybacks. And of course those numbers are magnified by the largest market cap companies.
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