Less of a chance wrote:
Nope. It is 20% chance of an American winning, not 40%. Think of it this way. One entrant has a 35% of winning. 65 entrants each have a 1% chance of wining. The 65 entrants do not have a 65% of winning.
Yes they do if they are taken as a group. The statement is guy A has a 35% chance. The odds of the winner being a member of the big group is 65%.
coach d wrote:
The odds are 50%, but not because of what you said. Assuming Renato meant a 20% chance to EACH of Solomon and Symmonds--
odds of Aman losing: 1 - 0.35 = 0.65
odds of Souleyman losing: 0.8
odds of an unknown losing: 0.9
Odds of a non-American (that's Aman AND Souleyman AND an unknnown) NOT winning: 0.65 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.468
Chances of Solomon or Symmonds winning = 1 - .468 ~ 53.2%
You guys all spent too many days doing mileage when you should have been in class.
Put the same problem another way:
Given four overturned aces what are the chances of picking the ace of spades? The answer is 25%. The chance of not picking the ace of spades is (1-.25) or 75%. It is not the product of the complementary independent probabilities as you suggest. You’re saying it’s 31.64% , or (1-.25)*4.
You're welcome to my poker table any day.
"In no other branch of mathematics is it so easy for experts to blunder as in probability theory" - Martin Gardner
Ladbrokes Odds as of 1140pm EDT
Aman 13/8 (1.625:1)
Solomon 9/4 (2.25:1)
Symmonds 9/2 (4.5:1)
SoulMan 8/1
Bosse 14/1
Mo 16/1
Lew 66/1
Osagie 150/1 lol
I'd throw a bone on Osagie at those odds.
coach d, maybe you should go back to class instead of telling others to do so. You add the chances in this case, instead of multiplying them.
The chance you calculated are for these events occurring consequently, not simultaneously. The chance that Symmonds or Solomon win is 40% according to the chances mentioned by Canova (and correctly observed by Wejo) and 60% (35%+15%+10%) for someone else winning.
Dudes people been doing this since beginning of civilization. Rome 100 AD for example. However, comma, Solomon looked like a monster out there. Is he consistent or not? I really haven't followed him and Symm. this year.
The chance is always 50%. For everybody. Either you win or you don't.
Aman will win.
come on now wrote:
coach d, maybe you should go back to class instead of telling others to do so. You add the chances in this case, instead of multiplying them.
The chance you calculated are for these events occurring consequently, not simultaneously. The chance that Symmonds or Solomon win is 40% according to the chances mentioned by Canova (and correctly observed by Wejo) and 60% (35%+15%+10%) for someone else winning.
This is correct. You cannot multiply chances unless you want the chance of the events happening consequently.
bet on the bear
Man, reading threads like these makes me amazed that almost everyone I see walking down the street has managed to successfully get dressed in the morning. It's not just the ignorance of fools, it's the incredible confidence they have in their idiocy. Based on these threads, I'd expect to meet more people saying things like "No, YOU'RE dressed wrong. The left arm always goes through the hole with the collar around it."
(And just for the record, Canova was estimating 40% chance of an American victory.)
Using the bookies odds:
Aman 40%
Solomon 33%
Symmonds 20%
Souileman 14%
Bosse 6.5%
Mohammed 5%
Lewandoski 1.5%
Osagie 1%
Total = 121%
21% vig is high because bookies don't know shit about athletics so just offer bad odds all round.
You can get The field versus Aman @ -200 = 67%
Aman vs field is +150 = 40%
Only 7% vig. I like this bet on the field. Only SkyBet seem to be taking this bet.
laggy degen wrote:
Using the bookies odds:
Aman 40%
Solomon 33%
Symmonds 20%
Souileman 14%
Bosse 6.5%
Mohammed 5%
Lewandoski 1.5%
Osagie 1%
Total = 121%
21% vig is high because bookies don't know shit about athletics so just offer bad odds all round.
You can get The field versus Aman @ -200 = 67%
Aman vs field is +150 = 40%
Only 7% vig. I like this bet on the field. Only SkyBet seem to be taking this bet.
That is because bookies make money. It it all added up to 100% their profit would be 0%.
Huh?????. wrote:
wejo wrote:Renato Canove has a nice break down of the men's 800m final. 40% chance an American wins it: "If I have to give my percentages, I give 35% to Aman, 20% to Simmonds and Solomon, 15% to Souleyman and 10% for some surprise, connected with possible accidents can happen during the race."
http://www.albertostretti.org/2013/08/moscow2013-800m-men-preview-of-coach.html?m=1The final is at 1:10 eastern on Tuesday.
LRC thoughts on final here:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/08/time-to-get-excited-for-tomorrows-800m-final-can-the-usa-get-gold-5-things-to-consider/Are you dyslexic?
How can you be covering this sport so long and spell Symmonds "Simmonds" even once?
You must be socially dyslexic too, because you and your crew keep allowing massive amounts of racism on this board...btw...worse than ever this week...I hope black athletes start calling you out on it.
Autocorrect spell check probably. 'Canova' came out as 'Canove' too. Racists posts are despicable but the mods generally allow a bit of debate and counter argument. The mot offensive stuff is always deleted fairly swiftly considering how active the board is.
The coverage of distance running on this site is 2nd to none.
TrackCoach wrote:
Every year the 800m has a performance no one accounts for.
Actually Renato accounts for it:
"and 10% for some surprise, connected with possible accidents can happen during the race."
Huh?????. wrote:
Are you dyslexic?
How can you be covering this sport so long and spell Symmonds "Simmonds" even once?
Actually, kiddo, thats a quote. He copied Renatos word from Alberto Strettis blog, how can you not understand that? The link is even in the comment.
hold the phone wrote:
Man, reading threads like these makes me amazed that almost everyone I see walking down the street has managed to successfully get dressed in the morning. It's not just the ignorance of fools, it's the incredible confidence they have in their idiocy. Based on these threads, I'd expect to meet more people saying things like "No, YOU'RE dressed wrong. The left arm always goes through the hole with the collar around it."
(And just for the record, Canova was estimating 40% chance of an American victory.)
My thoughts exactly. I hoping to find a loop of trolling going on I think they might be serious :(
Vegas has Oman winning, then Soloman.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/athletics/2013-world-championships?ev_oc_grp_ids=1255762
Come on coach d. Runner A losing and runner B losing are NOT independent events. You should know that.
800 analyzer wrote:
Aman 13/8 (1.625:1)
Solomon 9/4 (2.25:1)
Symmonds 9/2 (4.5:1)
SoulMan 8/1
Bosse 14/1
Mo 16/1
Lew 66/1
Osagie 150/1 lol
The Brits were never very good at math were they...
Those don't add up to 100%!
BTW, Americans are a stone cold mortal lock for Gold. So You can put your shoes back on and your calculators in your pokcet protecters.
poquw wrote:
The chance is always 50%. For everybody. Either you win or you don't.
No injuries, no disqualification, no false start, no falling,....... nothing!
Everyone finishes the race.
In a hundred metre race between Usain Bolt and yourself,
(a). What is the probability that Bolt would win?
(b). What is the probability that you would win?