Renato Canove has a nice break down of the men's 800m final. 40% chance an American wins it: "If I have to give my percentages, I give 35% to Aman, 20% to Simmonds and Solomon, 15% to Souleyman and 10% for some surprise, connected with possible accidents can happen during the race."
http://www.albertostretti.org/2013/08/moscow2013-800m-men-preview-of-coach.html?m=1
The final is at 1:10 eastern on Tuesday.
LRC thoughts on final here:
That should be a 20% chance an American wins it. You shouldn't be adding the adding the 20% for each of them together to get 40%.
It is 40%. If you look at the total percentages he's saying 20% for Solomon and 20% for Symmonds. It has to be that way to get to 100%.
No, I'd agree with wejo on this one.
If both U.S. athletes have 20% each, the % sum to 100.
Simmonds FTW in 1:43.57 you read it here first!
Less of a chance wrote:
That should be a 20% chance an American wins it. You shouldn't be adding the adding the 20% for each of them together to get 40%.
You appear to have no clue how these things work.
Next time when you have no clue try not saying anything. Nobody will ever know you are clueless.
Ovett fan 1980 wrote:
No, I'd agree with wejo on this one.
If both U.S. athletes have 20% each, the % sum to 100.
Simmonds FTW in 1:43.57 you read it here first!
Every year the 800m has a performance no one accounts for.
Less of a chance wrote:
That should be a 20% chance an American wins it. You shouldn't be adding the adding the 20% for each of them together to get 40%.
Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt
Hoping for an exciting race and American success.
2012 London Olympics mens 800 was fun to watch with so many runners with fantastic times, but I will always remember Dave Wottle's victory in 1972.
The way it was written suggested 20% was combined.
Solomon for the win in 1:42.41.
Aman second in 1:42.52.
Symmonds third in 1:42.58.
I hadn't realized that Aman had run 1:42 mid, so he has more of a claim to favorite status. But he's only run 1:43.2 or 1:43.3 this year.
And a 60% chance an American doesn't win. I think Canova is being way too generous to the American chances.
Actually there is a 2 out of 8 chance that an American wins the 800m final, which is 25%.
I think Aman is going to sit behind Solomon and wait until the homestretch before passing. Symmonds will be trying to make a move on the bend with 150 to go and will end up with the silver as Solomon ties up for third.
Math PhD wrote:
Actually there is a 2 out of 8 chance that an American wins the 800m final, which is 25%.
So Rudisha had a 1 out of 8 chance to win the 800 last year at the Olympics?
Math PhD wrote:
Actually there is a 2 out of 8 chance that an American wins the 800m final, which is 25%.
It is amazing how lucky Dibaba is. I mean, the odds of winning a 10k are so much lower and yet she seems to win every time! What were the odds yesterday? 6%?!?! And she had done that 11 times in a row?!?!
Either she needs to buy a lottery ticket or you need to return your PhD!
Math Gene-e-us wrote:
Math PhD wrote:Actually there is a 2 out of 8 chance that an American wins the 800m final, which is 25%.
It is amazing how lucky Dibaba is. I mean, the odds of winning a 10k are so much lower and yet she seems to win every time! What were the odds yesterday? 6%?!?! And she had done that 11 times in a row?!?!
Either she needs to buy a lottery ticket or you need to return your PhD!
Not that lucky, really. She had a 3.6 x 10^(-14) to get those 11 straight. Not bad odds when you think about it.
jjjjjjjjj wrote:
The way it was written suggested 20% was combined.
Actually the opposite. If it was 20% combined you end up with 80% all together if you add them up. So no, it was meant as 20% plus 20%.
yogibear wrote:
You guys don't know nuthin about math.
The odds of an American winning the 800m is 50%.
Either they will, or they won't.
1 divided by 2 is 50%.
The odds are 50%, but not because of what you said. Assuming Renato meant a 20% chance to EACH of Solomon and Symmonds--
odds of Aman losing: 1 - 0.35 = 0.65
odds of Souleyman losing: 0.8
odds of an unknown losing: 0.9
Odds of a non-American (that's Aman AND Souleyman AND an unknnown) NOT winning: 0.65 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.468
Chances of Solomon or Symmonds winning = 1 - .468 ~ 53.2%
You guys all spent too many days doing mileage when you should have been in class.
coach d wrote:
The odds are 50%, but not because of what you said. Assuming Renato meant a 20% chance to EACH of Solomon and Symmonds--
odds of Aman losing: 1 - 0.35 = 0.65
odds of Souleyman losing: 0.8
odds of an unknown losing: 0.9
Odds of a non-American (that's Aman AND Souleyman AND an unknnown) NOT winning: 0.65 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.468
Chances of Solomon or Symmonds winning = 1 - .468 ~ 53.2%
You guys all spent too many days doing mileage when you should have been in class.
Maybe you should think for a moment about these words:
"When in the course of human events..."
wejo wrote:
It is 40%. If you look at the total percentages he's saying 20% for Solomon and 20% for Symmonds. It has to be that way to get to 100%.
Nope. It is 20% chance of an American winning, not 40%. Think of it this way. One entrant has a 35% of winning. 65 entrants each have a 1% chance of wining. The 65 entrants do not have a 65% of winning.
Mr Obvious wrote: Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt
You are a fool then for speaking. It is a 20% chance an American wins.
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