idle observer wrote:
If you had a HS junior boy with PRs of 4:32 and 9:38 for full 1 & 2 miles you would say he was decent. If someone told you they expected him to break 4:00 for the mile some day you would be slightly puzzled and ask for his 800/400 PRs. When you hear they are 2:10 and 55.x you would laugh at this prediction.
I really disagree with this.
Again, the 800 PR is 2:03.
I say those are pretty good indicators for a boy to potentially break 4 at some point.
I am sure there are tons of men that broke 4 that had those numbers or worse at that age.
My 1500 PR is 3:42.1 - basically a 4 flat mile effort.
At 16 I had split 55s in the 400 but certainly could not hit those times in the longer events.
Senior year I ran 2:02.
The key for me is that I did improve to 50.2 for a 400 in high school and you need speed close to that for sub 4.
I am not saying Mary Cain will break 4 but if a high scool boy had her numbers, you could say he had a shot as there could be greater improvemnt with physical maturation.
Women in general have made pretty pathetic improvement in middle distance running over the last 30 years even as participation and training methods have improved.
Mary Slaney's 1500m American record turns 30 this year.
I think women are due for a few jumps in performance.
It may be reasonable to think that this Mary may run a 4:10 mile at some point.
But again, if a boy was running her times, you could talk about a future sub 4.