Will Mary Cain be the first woman to break the 4 minute mile?

you bring great dishonor to your predictor status

I don't know whether it's possible for Cain but I really would like to see women chase the barrier (I know they're far off but hell the men were far off once too)

Problem is, a big part of her success seems to be from simply being very physically mature at a very early age. Not saying she isn't very disciplined and talented. She will get better. I just don't think anyone should extrapolate great unprecedented performances at 16 years old to what they will do at 24.

I don't know if the Nike Saladbar can cook up that good of a recipe for her but hey they got Rupp to run a 3:50

Cain is the greatest AMERICAN girl for her age but you are forgetting that multiple foreigners have run as fast or faster than her at 16 and they never came close to breaking 4:00.

Also, think how many hundreds of high school boys her age run her times every year versus how many actually go on to break 4:00. And factor in that girls often peak at a younger age than boys.

It's not going to happen. Do you really think she is going to run about 15 seconds faster than the Chinese, Soviet, Romanian and Slaneys of the 80's and 90's were all probably doping?

NO!

What's her 400 speed?

Dingler wrote:

Cain is the greatest AMERICAN girl for her age but you are forgetting that multiple foreigners have run as fast or faster than her at 16 and they never came close to breaking 4:00.

I tried to find some world junior lists to see how many other 16 year old girls have run 4:32 and I couldn't find anything, just world junior records. Zola Budd ran 4:17 but she was 19 at the time and never ran faster. Looking at the World Junior Championships there are lots of girls who run 1500 times converting to about 4:27 miles but they're all 18 or 19 years old. Do you have any specific examples of 16 year old girls running faster than 4:32?

ryan foreman wrote:

Problem is, a big part of her success seems to be from simply being very physically mature at a very early age. Not saying she isn't very disciplined and talented. She will get better. I just don't think anyone should extrapolate great unprecedented performances at 16 years old to what they will do at 24.

she isn't very physically mature at a very early age. did you see what she looked like as a freshman? she was tiny and that was just 2 years ago. she's physically very normal.

htr wrote:

Dingler wrote:

Cain is the greatest AMERICAN girl for her age but you are forgetting that multiple foreigners have run as fast or faster than her at 16 and they never came close to breaking 4:00.

I tried to find some world junior lists to see how many other 16 year old girls have run 4:32 and I couldn't find anything, just world junior records. Zola Budd ran 4:17 but she was 19 at the time and never ran faster. Looking at the World Junior Championships there are lots of girls who run 1500 times converting to about 4:27 miles but they're all 18 or 19 years old. Do you have any specific examples of 16 year old girls running faster than 4:32?

you trippin'.

You can't be serious. Sub-Four? A more provocative question would be could she run under 4:10 for a Mile. (The world record is 4:12.56.) To answer my own question: I don't think it's impossible. She is a phenomenal talent. But if I was a betting man, I would say no, she won't break 4:10. Too many variables to get from where she is at age sixteen to a sub 4:10, or even to a WR time.

Lets put this in perspective, Alan Webb, the American record holder in the mile, is ~7 seconds slower than the WR. This shows how inadequate our country is compared to WR countries. Mary Cain is very good for an American high schooler, but so are some others. It's not being good from a young age, but not burning out or just peaking too early. If she can stick with it, she will almost definelty qualify for Rio, but how well is she really going to do? I'll give you an example. Alyson Felix, the 100 and 200 runner that ran in London, holds the AHSR in a couple sprinting events, and from what I've heard, by a good bit. But she is not anywhere near the WR for it though. Think of it this way, a 1600 is 16 times a 100. Mary Cain would have to beat the mile WR by 13 seconds. 13/16= 0.8125 seconds. That's like Usain Bolt running a well under 9 second 100, which is very likely not going to happen in his lifetime. So a 32 second drop in her mile time from high school to elite level? That's not very likely. Pre ran a 3:52, that's like him running a 4:24 in his near peak condition in HS. He was a later maturer, and he definelty didn't run 4:24 then.

No one knows. Her 400 PR is 55.5h, set as a freshman. There is a NY high sophomore on her tail -- well not quite on Cain's tail. Had a better freshman 400 PR than Cain. Ran a sub 2:10 800 last year as a freshman. This last weekend ran the 600 in 1:30.35. Like her middle distance colleagues at Garden City HS, runs the 400/800. Not built like Cain. More like a high school Alysia Johnson Montano, who also ran the 400/800. Emma Gallagher.

I believe that it is impossible for a woman to break 4min in the mile, unless she has abnormally high testosterone levels, be it for

1. being somewhere between woman and man (i.e. Caster Semenya)

2. doping like the East Germans or Russians did in the 70/80s.

One more thing to keep in mind is that women peak earlier in their athletic ability than men. It is not unheard of for a 16yo woman to be world class in sports but I don't remember any man that age being world class.

Jerome Kopf wrote:

No one knows. Her 400 PR is 55.5h, set as a freshman. There is a NY high sophomore on her tail -- well not quite on Cain's tail. Had a better freshman 400 PR than Cain. Ran a sub 2:10 800 last year as a freshman. This last weekend ran the 600 in 1:30.35. Like her middle distance colleagues at Garden City HS, runs the 400/800. Not built like Cain. More like a high school Alysia Johnson Montano, who also ran the 400/800. Emma Gallagher.

while where talking about youngsters heres one to watch.

raevyn rogers born 1999

ran on schools 3:43 mile relay

800-best of 2:07, goes out in 58-59 and fades

mile-4:53 as a 6th grader

2nd in state cross country even though someone clipped her shoe at the start and she ran the race with 1 shoe on and one shoe off. she also won a cross country race in 18:08.

she is in 8th grade now and will graduate high school in 2017.

Only a few errors here.

yeah, like 3 seconds is 7 seconds in that dope's world.

No, but she will be the first woman to break the 3:50 mile