Can I break 3hr marathon?

nematode...yes, that was most definitely the race! Ha very funny that you stumbled across this and are doing the ING in Miami. And yes, the conditions for the rock n roll were terrible. Being un-rested didn't help either. I was hurting the last 5 miles. Went from 6:20-30 pace all the way to 7:15 on those bridges into the wind. Abysmal.

Will you be pacing for a 3 hr at ING, too? Thanks for the thoughts!

gn1tmac, yes, it is 2013 when they kick in and it is 2:45. That's why I really would like to hit 2:55 this year. I believe they still consider races run this year for 2012 entry, right?

4:20 is incredibly solid, damn. What do you run your half in when you go 4:20?

Splits in my 5 hr half:

28 min swim (didn't train swimming since I swam in college)

2:53 bike (slow bike time...I hate biking, that's why I'm running now)

1:34 run

breakingthree wrote:

This should read I pushed the last 5 miles to right around 7 minute pace per mile.

This is a good start, but you should be finishing that run @ 6:50 and feeling very comfortable. 3 hrs is @ 6:52 pace so you should be able to easily run that pace at the end of a 20 miler.

The predictor I like to do is a 21 mile run with the last 7 at marathon pace (the first 14 easy.) If you can do that one and still feel like you have something in the tank, you're good to go.

I think you're REALLY close to breaking three but probably optimum pacing would be for a 3:03-3:08.

If I were you I'd concentrate on nailing a solid sub-3:10, then bouncing into the next cycle and nailing a comfortable sub 3 in the late spring.

It's hard to say without seeing your training log though; if you were ten years older I'd give you more of a chance of breaking three, in that your endurance would be better developed relative to your speed. Even then though that would be cutting it close.

breakingthree wrote:

Will you be pacing for a 3 hr at ING, too? Thanks for the thoughts!

No man, you posted on my thread, remember? I was trying to run about 2:35.

nematode wrote:

breakingthree wrote:

Will you be pacing for a 3 hr at ING, too? Thanks for the thoughts!

No man, you posted on my thread, remember? I was trying to run about 2:35.

whoops...didn't catch the username. haha...again, good luck you speedy sonofab*tch!

based on your long run, i would definitely say yes. I did 22 mile long runs in 2:24 before running a 2:40 marathon on a hilly course.

Sub 38:00 for 10K

Sub 18:00 for 5K

1:23 for the half

Can you race that fast for those distances?

That along with your mileage should get you 2:55.

On my best marathon, my 23rd, I ran 3:03. I knew going in that 6:50 pace was too tough to maintain for the whole distance. So I tried to keep it at 7:00 per mile or just under. I knew from ten years of running and the previous 22 marathons whether 6:50 was possible or not. That's why I didn't try for sub-3. I also ran a 2:24 20 miler three weeks before. I could run a sub 39:00 10K at the time (barely) and a sub 19 (barely) 5K. I was 50 years old and the race was NY, so it wasn't an easy course. If you're going to have a good race, in my opinion, you have to be able to maintain the pace in the last 10K. Like someone else said, it doesn't matter what you can do for twenty, it's about not falling apart at the end. That's when you see the most people hobbling of shuffling. You're a lot younger and if that's a flat course maybe you have a shot.

breakingthree,

I think you may be a couple minutes faster than 3:00 with a solid race.

I think I am right on that 3 hr line too and you ran the 10 mile and 12 mile tempo a little faster than I could. Your longer runs were pretty similar but I ran some of the 16 and 17 milers I have done pretty hard. I raced more than a dozen times last fall and the paces and comparison to other runners I ran against all gave me a time between 3:00-3:02. I am in a little better shape now and have done 16 miles progression at 6:58 pace, a more even paced and easier effort 20 mile in 2:30, and a 67 minute progression 10 mile in the middle of 17 miles.(32:30 last 5) One of my races last fall was a 30k in 2:06 (6:45 pace).

I think you are under 3 shape but maybe not quite at 2:55 based on your workouts. (of course not knowing the effort level of those workouts)

So, disaster struck me. A little background...I have sickle cell trait, which can lead to serious problems in prolonged physical exertion in extreme humidity. Race morning, humidity was over 70% and temps were in the low 70s. The first half of the race was great. I was talkative and my legs had a lot of bounce to them. Through 10 miles I was on pace for 2:57-2:58; I felt strong, loose and relaxed. Around mile 11 the back cramps started coming on, which was weird since I had been strengthening my back, shoulders, etc. in anticipation of their exhaustion. Never had the problem on any of my training runs, besides one that I did back in July in Miami under high heat and humidity.

At the half I was on pace for 3:02, but I didn't feel right. Given my training, there was no way I should have bonked at mile 13. At that point, the smart thing would have been for me to pull out, but I had to finish. I did finish, through full body cramps and all, in 3:36. I could barely stand up after the race and had extreme vertigo, accelerated heart rate a full half hour after the race, etc. Gatorade didn't do the trick or help me at all. I couldn't stand up or even move myself. At that point, I knew I had no choice.

I called over a race volunteer and struggled to ask for medical assistance. In the medical tent I was given an IV to get my fluids and sodium levels back where they needed to be. I still can barely walk.

Now that it's all said and done, I feel pretty ashamed of myself. I know I really can't blame myself for a genetic trait I have, but I also know I was a little too proud to give in when I should have. Next time I need to be smarter, for my health.

I know there will be doubters that will say I just "bonked", but this was not your average bonk. This was just a disastrous experience caused not by lack of conditioning, but rather by something I have no control over. Next time I'll find a race in more mild conditions. And if the humidity is high, I won't be running.

holy cow man - what an experience.

The funny thing about running is that we tend to remember the extreme situations as much as the victories. it sounds like you saw into the abyss there and came out the other side - that's not a bad memory to keep.

um...new focus?

breakingthree wrote:

So, disaster struck me. .

Kudos to you for coming on here and telling us how it ended up. Was your peak weekly mileage 50 MPW? If so, upping your weekly mileage may help. I attempted a sub 3 once and went through the half in 1:29 . . . and ended up running a 3:35. It was awful. In my case, I was training at about 45 MPW. Later, I upped my mileage and finally ran a sub3 a few years after that when my weekly mileage was 65+.

Yeah, there are many threads of letsrunners running sub3 on less than 50 miles a week, but if you dig deeper most of those guys are club level runners, young guys fresh out of college or other freaks of nature. My speculation is that the vast majority of sub3 marathoners approach 70MPW in their peak training.

Wow, tough break man. Welcome to the marathon.

How / Why does sickle cell impact you in this manner? Living in Southern FL, I am surprised you didn't run into this problem in training.

Those kinds of temps and humidity can be suicide when you are trying to run a certain pace for a marathon. That can easily be worth 15 seconds per mile. Find a marathon in cooler (50°) weather for your next attempt and it will make a huge difference.

don't feel bad, anyone who has raced enough has experienced something like this. it happens, just put it behind you and move on....

No new focus! I just won't run a full in FLA ever again. I'm going to concentrate on the half marathon this year. I really wanna break 1:20 in that eventually. Might take a few years, but I think with the proper training, a little more knowledge about my condition, etc. that I can do it.

Thanks...it wasn't easy to stomach such catastrophic results, nevertheless post about it. But, I wanted to let people know how I fared. Especially since I came to these message boards looking for advice on breaking 3 in the first place.

My weekly milage was 40-45 for the month of October. 50 on average for the month of November and then in December I upped it to 53, 60 and 65, with one rest week. My 3 week taper was 53 with an 18 mile long run two weeks out, fast finish. Then 35 with a 11 miler the week before and finally, the week of I only did two runs. I think I possibly tapered too much, but who knows?

Next time I'll be at 70-80 for at least 4 weeks.

I actually did run into it once. I experienced the same symptoms I had on mile 13, too. I was doing my first long run over 12 miles in the summer in my build up. It was extremely hot and humid (90 degrees plus Florida humidity) and my back started tensing up. I also got a little dizzy. I tried stopping and drinking water, but it didn't help (turns out it makes it worse).

Since my bonk I've done a lot of research on sickle cell trait. There's not much I can do besides not run in humid/hot temps or hope I have the right electrolyte/sodium and water balance in my cells.