Can I break 3hr marathon?

***Correction***

Started off at a nice sustainable moderate pace and pushed the last 5 to 7 minutes (fast finish).

This should read I pushed the last 5 miles to right around 7 minute pace per mile.

No no no no.

Actually run 1:24, and you might have a chance. I predict 3:10 for you.

Yes, you can do it. I ran a 1:29, turned around a month later and ran 2:52. Don't worry about whether you should or not, just go out 5-10 seconds slower than 2:55 pace for the first half and try to negative split the thing. You'll be fine.

I agree with above poster, without the overuse of No.

All this sounds like a girl I was training and pacing.

We worked together and flew done to the Phoenix Marathon where she ran a 3:06, after doing sub-88 at Las Vegas a few weeks earlier.

Depending on when you plan to run your next Marathon, you have some work to do.

Are you sure, bangalang? If you extrapolate my 20 miler above out to 26.1 (just 6 more miles) my pace puts me right around 3:08-3:10. That was a moderate run. I appreciate the response and this is why I came here, for a variety of opinions. Just think about the long run time. Also, for more context, I do a workout every two-three weeks of 3 miles tempo (18-19 minutes), 4 to 6 x 800s under 3 minutes and then another 3 straight at 18-19. Willing to reconsider?

That turnaround is wild. I was hoping for a 1:25 that day but the winds and some hills on the back half murdered me. Wasn't tapered for it, either, but I was expecting better. I can't wait to run this and post my results...appreciate the feedback and support!

breakingthree wrote:

Are you sure, bangalang? If you extrapolate my 20 miler above out to 26.1 (just 6 more miles) my pace puts me right around 3:08-3:10. That was a moderate run. I appreciate the response and this is why I came here, for a variety of opinions. Just think about the long run time. Also, for more context, I do a workout every two-three weeks of 3 miles tempo (18-19 minutes), 4 to 6 x 800s under 3 minutes and then another 3 straight at 18-19. Willing to reconsider?

Bangalang may reconsider but I wouldn't. It's "just 6 more miles" = famous last words of new marathoners trying for a goal that is right at the limits of their current fitness. You might squeek in under 3 but I doubt it. Workouts predict nothing - show some race times (a 10K or a 10miler or a half marathon or a 30K or whatever) that say you can do it.

I wish you the best of luck but I think you need more training under your belt. I'd be happy if you proved me wrong!

I hope I do, too! Should be a good case test scenario. Hoping the conditions are good and I taper well...3 weeks to go...

If it is 65-70 degrees on race day and you are not currently training in those conditions everyday, you have no chance. If you are used to the weather, then you are in the ballpark, but it will need to be a very good day for you. I think you need way more longer efforts in your training (6-10 mi at MP, long intervals of 1k to 3k, etc.). Shorter tempos of 3 mi and 800s do not make a marathoner. But, the potential 1:25 half is a good indication that you are in range. If you don't hit it this time, you will probably do it next time with some better training.

Roy, thanks for the comment. So yeah, I live in South Florida (where the race is), where I've been training in this temp (or hotter) all year. I've done one ten mile tempo at 1:06 and a 12 mile tempo at 1:20. Unfortunately I don't have any other race times besides the atrocious/windy half I posted above. If I don't do it this time you can guarantee I will be going for it again!

Why are you running that fast in training (maybe I missed something)?

IF (big if) you had a chance at sub three sounds like you are leaving it in your training rather than saving it for an actual race.

I say no. Prove me wrong.

Ecin, sorry...just a little confused. Are you asking me why I'm running so many tempos and other fast runs or the previous poster? If so...

I built up a pretty good base 3-4 months out so I could get in some quality speed and hill work when my mileage peaked. I ran at least one intense hill workout and one tempo/speed workout a week, with a long run. The other 2-3 days were recovery or moderate running, sometimes with short 1000m strides.

In general, I stuck to the rule of listening to my body. If I felt good, I went after it. If not (and my legs felt over-trained or heavy), I usually added in a day of rest. For the most part, I completed every workout in the 6 months of training I had. Now It's on to my taper...

Personally, I think I'm borderline for 3 hrs. A good race and I'm under, bad race and I think I'll be closer to 3:05. It all comes down to my taper and mental state. Love hearing this feedback, though. Thanks to all that have replied.

breakingthree wrote:

I ran a 20.1 mile long run recently in around 2:24. Started off at a nice sustainable moderate pace and pushed the last 5 to 7 minutes (fast finish).

I guess I miscalculated something, but when I originally read the 2:24, I got 8:20 pace when it is in fact 7:15 pace.

Nice job!

Haha, err, sorry. I think you've got 3:05 in the bag. 3:00 isn't out of the question, but 2:55 might be setting yourself up for disaster.

Should read 100M (not 1000M, or a 1K) strides...

1. you need a 2:48 for NY

2. based on your half ironman time you won't break 3 hours... not the 1:34 just the overall time. unless it was st croix

3. 70 degrees while perfect for a training run is actually too warm for a fast marathon

4. You're half time sucks...you need to run 1:22-1:25 in your sleep to break 3 in a full

Haha thanks Evan. I'll take the disaster comment to heart. Don't want to risk the 3 hr by going too hard in pursuit of 2:55. Good stuff!

gn1tmac - can you let me know from where you got the 2:48 qualifying time? I'd like to know so I don't go after some arbitrary 2:55 time. I found the current 2012 guaranteed entry times here:http://www.nycmarathon.org/entrantinfo/apply_instruct.htm

Interesting regarding the half Ironman time. I had someone tell me after I finished it the exact opposite you just did. Funny how people's POVs differ. What about the 5 hr time says I can't? Just curious.

I'd prefer 50 degree weather for the marathon, so yeah, not ideal weather...

Agreed half time sucks...not what I was shooting for. However, I know I can do better. Some of my training times have been at a faster pace (see 12 mile tempo).

based on your half time, i don't think you'll break 3:00. you'll be lucky to run 3:05. but maybe your strength will be the marathon.

also, as pointed out above, it'll be too hot. you're going to be right on the edge, and 65-70 temps are going to kill you.

Dude I found your thread from my thread b/c we're both running ING Miami. Good luck to you!

Was your 1:28 half at the Miami Beach Rock N Roll? If so, that was worth a 1:24 because of the winds and heat.

If we are lucky enough to have calm, cool air on 1/29/2012, I think you probably can break 3 hours but it's going to be a close shave for you. I don't think you can qualify for NY but 3:00 is within your capabilities if you have a good day.

Good luck!!!