Oly Trials Marathon Top 5--Pick em'

Hall

Trafeh

Ritz (if healthy)

Meb (if healthy)

Nick

Hartmann (if Ritz or Meb is hurt)

Abdi (if ritz or Meb is hurt)

Desi

Shalane

Kara

Magda

Hastings

Crazy, simply crazy to think Kara will win the OT

niarun wrote:

Men

1 Hall

2 Meb

3 Ritz

4 Nick Arciniaga

5 Hartman

Three easy, then a drop off as mentioned.

Women

1 Kara

2 Shalane

3 Rothstein

4 Desi

5 Deena

I like Desi or Deena for the third spot as well. Desi is probably the better bet on paper, but Rothstein is improving amazingly fast. Desi is awesome, so may take the third spot. I don't like her for the win because she runs her own race, rather than racing. Not sure she can go after a slow 20 miles. Deena may find one last marathon and claw her way on the team.

usatf wannabe wrote:

ok, lets hear it...who will be fit, who won't....going to be here soon. A few unanswered questions of who and won't run, but lets hear your guesses....and if you're going to watch

Picking a winner in a marathon is a crap shoot. Its always better to bet the field. Pick your own and bump the thread in january.

I'm with goucher or flanagan for the first two spots and the other three competing for third.

Outrageous wrote:

Crazy, simply crazy to think Kara will win the OT.

Kara wouldn't be my first pick, but she has the second best American time for this year and she's been one of the top Americans for several years. She's not exactly a dark horse pick here.

Did you watch Boston this year? Desi raced after Mile 20.

January will be different than September yet this weekend Deena beat Stephanie Rothstein decidedly at Cow Harbor.

For the men I think the real contenders are the following:

Hall-2:04

Ritz-1256

Meb-Olympic silver

Trafeh (has beaten hall in a half)

Nelson-(has made worlds team and is primed to make an Olympic team)

Torres (Olympian)

Goucher (Olympian)

Abdi (Olympian)

I'm sorry but Arciniaga, Lehm, Gotcher, Hartman, Fasil, Carney have never shown that they can really compete on a huge stage in a tactical race.

I think guys like Brahn, Smyth, or Bauhs will do very well if they run.

I'm going with Mario Macias as darkhorse OT top 3. Dude has been killing it in CO this year in some unconventional races. I think he could run 2:12 and make the team.

Desi ran awesome at boston. She picked off people who ran too fast and lost a sprint. She did not surge with the pack or anything like it.

Here are her 5k splits:

0:17:11 0:33:57 0:51:02 1:08:00 1:11:42 1:25:03 1:41:54 1:58:37 2:15:13

or, here they are in each 5k:

17

17

17

17

17

16.83333333

16.85714286

16.875

That is even pacing. Very smart stuff. Not 'racing' as in a championship race.

I didn't know about cowtown, but will stick with rothstein anyway. What's 40 seconds anyway...

hall

tapia

meb

torres

ritz

You are wrong. Here is one example:Southwest Spine & Sports Mountain To Fountain 15K - 15K RunMarch 12, 201110 Stephanie Rothstein FEMALE 2529 27 F 53:07 53:09 28

Flagstaff Dropout wrote:

Whoever the uninformed person that said Rothstein is "improving" may want to note that she ran her first race this past weekend since January.

ljkdflaf wrote:

For the men I think the real contenders are the following:

Hall-2:04

Ritz-1256

Meb-Olympic silver

Trafeh (has beaten hall in a half)

Nelson-(has made worlds team and is primed to make an Olympic team)

Torres (Olympian)

Goucher (Olympian)

Abdi (Olympian)

I'm sorry but Arciniaga, Lehm, Gotcher, Hartman, Fasil, Carney have never shown that they can really compete on a huge stage in a tactical race.

I think guys like Brahn, Smyth, or Bauhs will do very well if they run.

You do realize that this race will be a marathon, right? Almost without fail, you've picked people who are either unproven at the distance, or have proven to suck at the distance. And what is with all of the Ritz picks? Someone even mentioned that he'll have a big base? Am I just living in an alternate reality where he hasn't been healthy in a year?

So Ritz was in a boot as of a month ago, Trafeh has never finished a marathon, Nelson has run one mediocre marathon, and Goucher barely ran 65 minutes this weekend. Were you joking with those picks? I would take a guy like Jason Hartmann in a second over any of those guys.

Also, Rupp is not running the marathon. He just ran 26:48. There is no way on this earth that Salazar will throw him into the marathon trials on a whim.

Loofa Dog wrote:

I am not so convinced Hall is a given, though it would be quite an upset if he didn't, but I am not so sure.

I noticed nobody thinks Kastor for the ladies will make the team.

Personally I want to see Desi make it. I am not so conviced Kara is a given.

You are joking right; Hall could qualify with slightly faster than a training run. Unless Ritz finally puts it together and/or Meb finds the fountain of youth, the U.S. trails will be a cakewalk for Hall. Remember, Hall is probably a 2:10 guy on a bad day.

You people saying Meb and Abdi are not smart. These two are over the hill! They're part of ooollllddddd US distance running. Their time has come and gone (as has one Adam "Deer" Goucher's). This is the first Olympics where the new wave in distance running steps in and shows how they have progressed our sport where those others couldn't. We're talking the sub 13, sub 27, sub 2:05 generation. It's time to move on! Having said that I'm going with:

Meb

Abdi

Khanoucchi

Goucher....

Just kidding:

Ritz

Hall

Gotcher

1. Hall

2. Ritz

3. Goucher

im calling it right now.

CO represent wrote:

I'm going with Mario Macias as darkhorse OT top 3. Dude has been killing it in CO this year in some unconventional races. I think he could run 2:12 and make the team.

I thought he would represent Mexico? If I am wrong please let me know, I just thought I read an article that he was trying to qualify for Mexico.

Ah, I stand corrected, I just read an article saying you are correct. Interesting. Anyway, he's fast.

Other than Hall, are any of the contenders running a fall marathon?

Regarding Desi and her Boston splits, I recall that Brian Sell ran almost identical 5K splits one year in Boston. Particularly in a 3-winner race, Desi can run however she wants to, knowing that if the pace is too fast people will come back to her and if it's too slow people may let her go and fight for the other two spots. Fast and steady.

Someone posted on the Adam Goucher gets OTQ thread the link for all of the sub-1:05 guys who are in. I think one of those guys can pop one and take a spot. I was thinking Bobby Curtis, but then saw that he's running NY and I don't think however well he does there that he can recover for Houston.

Hall

Meb

One of the debuters.

Desi

Goucher

McGregor

dumdum wrote:

This is the first Olympics where the new wave in distance running steps in and shows how they have progressed our sport where those others couldn't.

I agree except for the marathon. Hall is a beast, but otherwise we are not progressing in the marathon.

Hall

Abdi

Morgan

Besides Hall: Curtis if he recovers well from NYC, Carney if he can stop dicking around (he won the Houston half a few years ago), Goucher if he stays injury-free (he's a tenacious racer). I don't think you can count out H-B runners after what Brian Sell pulled off in 07 and considering the marathon is really their bread and butter.

Flanagan

Moody

Davila

I like Kara, but based on her recent performances I'm really not convinced. Wouldn't be suprised to see Hastings or Rothstein but I think Moody is due for a moment.