Could Lance win the Ironman in Hawaii?

Depends... how much doping is there in triathlons?

LiveWrong

Dude is old, and probably no longer doping. Zero chance.

As long as he is ready to run 2:40 off the bike.

PreRunner wrote:

I say he will....after he drops down a big PR in Chicago, I bet he will focus on the Ironman and dominate.

Short answer is "no chance"

Longer answer is that he'll be behind coming out of the swim, try to make it up on the bike, and blow up on the run. It would take a run off the bike faster than his open PR to be competitive.

If he's not careful, he could get chicked by Wellington. I'm not convinced he could out swim or out run her.

You guys know nothing about Armstrong. He started with this kind of stuff. He still works out everyday, and is in amazing shape. He may be old, but he is strong. do you homework.

Lance wrote:

You guys know nothing about Armstrong. He started with this kind of stuff. He still works out everyday, and is in amazing shape. He may be old, but he is strong. do you homework.

Yea, I can see how doing Triathlons in the late 80s would translate to beating the best in the world over 20 years later, as age 40 approaches. Makes perfect sense.

Perhaps he should try to win the NYC marathon too. He may be old, but he is strong and in amazing shape, and after all he used to run before the cycling career took off.

Ya I'm pretty sure he was 1st or 2nd in the world as a teen. If he remastered the running and swimming *skills*, his fitness would easily be competitive.

Lance wrote:

You guys know nothing about Armstrong. He started with this kind of stuff. He still works out everyday, and is in amazing shape. He may be old, but he is strong. do you homework.

I read an interview with him a bit ago and his working out is certainly not up to what a pro triathlete does.

I say no chance barring some really weird thing like a current taking all the leaders out into the ocean, shark attacks on the leaders or rampant food poisoning.

Yeah, no chance. None.

In Question wrote:

Ya I'm pretty sure he was 1st or 2nd in the world as a teen. If he remastered the running and swimming *skills*, his fitness would easily be competitive.

There's just no way (even in his prime), he could run a marathon fast enough to win Ironman. Pretty sure, he wasn't running any marathons when he was a teen. None of the top triathletes are as big as Lance.

He doesn't think he can, but his fans expect him to win; which is why he hasn't tried it. ( according to what I read in RW)

no

When he was younger

It's not just the age but the years training he would need doing all three disciplines to be competitive

Just for context, just because you're a good endurance athlete doesn't mean you'll make a good endurance athlete in another sport. Hell, Chris McCormack (2-time Ironman World Champ and 7:55 Ironman best) came to Ironman after being an ITU world Champion (Olympic Distance racing) and he exploded in Kona for years. Lance obviously has a huge leg up on the competition in the bike regularly, but how many times has he practiced swimming for nearly an hour (or in his case, probably 1:10-1:15) and then getting on his bike and racing. There are guys who race half iron distance Tri's who people wouldn't even say are going to be contenders for the win in Kona. I think he can have some success in Irons on an age-group level, but there is no way in God's green earth that he's challenging for the win in Kona. His running is no where near where it needs to be to hang with these guys should he be racing them fresh while they are in the run portion of an iron.

twofourty wrote:

As long as he is ready to run 2:40 off the bike.

This answers the original question. Lance might be at the front after the swim and bike, but he would loose 20 minutes+ on the run.

cf Jurgen Zack

With the amount of steroids and HGH Lance Armstrong takes he could beat Usain Bolt in the 100M and 200M with one leg amputated.

funny wrote:

but how many times has he practiced swimming for nearly an hour (or in his case, probably 1:10-1:15)

I do not think he will be swimming over an hour and he wont be out the water far behind the leaders

No, simply no.

He won't be at the front after the swim, at best he will be a mid-packer. He will lose up to 10 min on the swim. He may have been a "world class junior triathlete" in the early 90's but the pro scene, including IM, has changed drastically since then. Raelert, winner of Roth IM swims about a 16:30 flat 1500m in the pool, and if you have 10-15 people around that ability pulling each other along on the IM part of the swim - they get away from the main pack significantly.

At age 38 it is unfortunately impossible for Armstrong to make up his swim deficit. I heard Lance was just under 19min for his swim when he was young, and believe me: at 38 he will be very happy to just get down to this time again, but not swim faster.

Realistically Armstrong may not even have the strongest bike leg, but that depends on how he reacts to cycling after the swim. We will see, and I am curious to find out.

But yes, I believe he will loose 40 - 60 min on the swim and run combined to the top 2 and won't be able to regain this on the cycling leg.

I am also not sure how much serious training Lance puts into his IM effort.