Well, it is difficult to predict a time since the weather is such a major factor on a hilly, point-to-point course. As for placement, I think Hall's worst finish was at the Olympics. His has been impressive in his ability to mix it up near or at the front without completely blowing up. He has also been healthy for the duration of his marathon career. I don't believe he has ever cited any sort of injury as a reason for not winning or placing top 3. He is not an idiot. He knows what times he needs to hit in workouts to be in certain marathon shape. If he has been hitting those times then there is no reason to think he won't be in the mix for a win or top placing. I agree that a certain fast time doesn't mean a win because there will be just one more Kenyan or Ethiopian who might be just a little better. This isn't very specific, but if there is good weather, Hall goes sub 2:09 and top 3. If there is bad weather, He runs 2:11+ and finishes 4-10th.