not a marathoner wrote:
This is exactly the way I feel and why I'm concerned about it, even with my half time. My mileage isn't that high (60,60,62 the last 3 weeks) with only 12-15 mile long runs. I basically find myself in the best shape in my life and want to take a crack at it. I plan to hit 70 the next 3 weeks with long runs of 20,20,18 and then taper for 2 weeks. With midweek workouts of 12-14 mi. running mp to hmp for 8-10 mi.
I have to say that your training looks a lot like mine from last year, and I blew up hard, though your half marathon speed is a bit better than I probably was at the time. My top mileage was 68, with several weeks around 60. I was comfortable with 15ish mile long runs, but only had 3 20 milers, only one of them with any time spent at marathon pace.
In short, I was in great shape for a half marathon, but not a marathon. I went out at roughly 2:56 pace, feeling great. I tried to hold back, and went through the half in 1:28:27. I felt great at 15 miles. In the 16th mile, I began to tell that the pace was starting to hurt me. In the 17th mile, I started to fall of the pace. By 18, I had given up on 3:00 and was just going to 'bring it in easy' and settle for BQ (3:10:59). Bring it in easy didn't happen, and the last 8-10 miles were the worst I've ever run. I blew up about as bad as all those other blow up stories you hear.
Here's what I've learned and what I've corrected for this year:
-higher mileage: lots of 70+ and 80+ weeks, and at least 6-7 20+ milers instead of 3
-more medium long runs: if you do 70 MPW in doubles, you're not really getting that many medium-long runs. Most of it should be in doubles. Running for 1:45 or 2 hours at least once or twice during the week will do a lot to toughen your legs and make those 20+ milers seem easy. I'm trying not to double more than 2-3 days a week, except on the week I went for 100+
-more time spent at marathon pace: I try to run a few miles at M pace during the end of easy runs, and have at least one workout per week where I specifically aim for it for 8+ miles, including the second half of many of my 20+ milers
-less rest for shorter races during the buildup: 'nuff said
-use workouts as indicators of marathon fitness, not shorter races: any race shorter than a half marathon really doesn't tell you that much. Talk to experienced marathoners and you'll get a good idea of what workouts mean what. It seems an old standby is that if you can run 10-12 miles at M pace on the back end of a 20 miler, without tapering, then you're set.
-figure out the nutrition/hydration ahead of time
-race conservatively: no matter how good you feel, don't let yourself get ahead of pace for the first 15-18 miles. You'll feel great for the first half and will really enjoy passing people but you can't let yourself do it.
-if it's hot, bag it: this one is debatable and different for different people, but for me, I run horribly in the heat, even when I've trained in it. Sometimes you just need to stop being stubborn and realize that it's not going to happen that day. You could settle for a slower time, or if you're really on top of it, you could have a backup marathon planned a couple weeks later.
That's what I've learned and addressed this year, and I feel it has made a huge difference. We'll find out if I'm right on October 11th.
And to MRB, I'm not sure if I should give you any advice, as I've never been where you are and it's a little late to make any real changes anyway. However, a couple things I think are very important that you didn't mention are marathon paced runs and nutrition/hydration. I'd make sure you get some longer work done at your goal marathon pace, and also practice nutrition/hydration. Maybe you're already doing those and didn't mention it, but it seemed a lot of your mileage was easy. I'd think for you, a 22 miler with the last 12 miles at marathon pace, practicing nutrition, on the back of a 100 mile week, would tell you alot about whether you're prepared to run 26.2 fast, or if you can just train a lot of high mileage and run shorter races fast.
I have a feeling that you would nail that workout really well, and that would serve as good information about nutrition strategies and a great confidence booster.