Many Men wrote:
Remember that the consumption tax would also suppress consumption, which will hurt the economy. But who knows, maybe reducing consumption would be a good thing in out crazy consumer culture...
Also, remember that a lot of states use sales tax to get revenue. These states will most likely have to ditch that plan an move to an income tax, so people won't necessarily be getting away from it.
we are moving into purely academic points, so the level of disagreement here is quite low. nevertheless, i'd argue that a consumption tax wouldn't really lower the level of consumption too much. start with the premise that i've already laid out (and that i've laid out in detail on this board before) - a consumption tax is the same as an income tax with an unlimited deduction for traditional IRAs/401(k)'s (the same is true for Roth style IRA/401(k)'s, but believing that usually takes a little more evidence).
then ask what percentage of taxpayers are actually able to max out their allotment for IRAs/401(k)'s. i would bet, without looking it up, that the number is well below 50%, most likely below 20%. so i'd argue that for those who aren't already maxing out, their level of consumption wouldn't change (b/c their tax wouldn't change; or at least their tax base wouldn't change, their rate might).
what would really happen under a consumption tax, for the large majority of americans, is that the tax base wouldn't change for those in the bottom 80% or so of incomes (again, because they already spend as much as they can and they don't save even when it is tax-preferenced to do so) but it will shrink substantially for the wealthiest americans. someone who makes $1 million per year doesn't need to spend most of her income. in fact, she probably only spends 10-20% of it, maybe 50% at the high end. so her tax base would shrink from $1 million to between $100,000 and $500,000.
on the other hand, properly constructed, a consumption tax would tax consumption from capital gains the same as consumption from income, so it would raise the tax rate on some trust fund babies.