If Wariner continues to dominate the 400m, winning gold in Osaka and Beijing in 2008, I think the odds become better than 50:50 that he will eventually run the 800. Here are the reasons:
First, most runners that consistently dominate a single event eventually want to extend their dominance to another event. For a 400m man, the obvious event is the 200m. But Wariner’s history, especially in 2007, when he dedicated himself to the distance, clearly indicates that his odds of ever being a 200 gold medalist in a major championship are low. (Yes MJ, improved in the 200m as he got older but he was world champion in 1991 at the age of 24.)
Second, Wariner’s tendency to pull away from his opponents only in the last 100m clearly indicates that his strength is extraordinary speed endurance. MJ and other 400 greats generally dominated throughout the race, indicating both tremendous speed and good, but less extraordinary, speed endurance. Wariner’s good, but not great, 200 times point to the same conclusion. Wariner’s unusually slight physique (6’ 155lbs) also indicate he is not a traditional 400 man.
How will it happen? If he wins gold in Osaka, we can expect he’ll try to duplicate his 2007 season in 2008, focusing on improving his speed in the 200 and then winning gold in 400. If he again fails to break 20s in the 200 in 2008, he’ll begin doubting his potential in the 200 (if he hasn’t already). Perhaps he’ll focus on the 200 one more time 2009, especially if he hasn’t yet set the 400 record. But eventually, when it becomes clear that he’s accomplished all he can in the 400 and shown himself that he will never be a champion in the 200, he’ll start thinking seriously about moving up. In the indoor season of 2009 or 2010, he’ll run a few 500s and possibly a 600. It’s hard to imagine he couldn’t easily be a world champion and set the world record in the 500, which is currently 60.17 (Ken Lowery 1987). After tasting some success in these events, he’ll gradually make the transition. By 2012 at the age of 28, with 2-3 years of building his endurance, he could be a world beater. Of course 800 dominance might prove beyond his range. Physiologically he might be limited to being the best 400-500 or 400-600 man of all time. But I think the odds are good that eventually Wariner will try these distances and even give the 800 a serious shot.
Thoughts?