NCAA XC Predictions

This is for all the people pushing their home team, mainly Nova, Portland and Louisville. Your teams are good but not top 5 teams. Portland will be a top 10 team, but Nova and Louisville... probably top 15 range. Here's why:

From worst to best... (* indicates runner with regional time in outdoor)

Nova: Didn't even make nationals this past year! They lost to American! Are you kidding? The team has stellar athletes but they don't have great long distance runners, they are made up of middle distance guys who preform on the track but are average at XC. Here's their lineup, less I missed a transfer.

Bobby Curtis* - great runner, possible individual threat

Robert Papizan - transfer from CU... but did nothing there; I wouldn't expect more now

Richard Corcoran - From Ireland... yep

Sean Tully* - Great 800m runner, not a distance guy...

No one else with a regional standard.... Right, don't see these guys beating American.

Louisville: 15th this past year and they only lose their #6!!! Wow, I don't see any other teams that would be able to hold onto them. Maybe Korrir had a bad race but seriously. There is a huge difference between 15th and 4th. I know you Atlantic Region guys are all geeked to see them pound your regional competition, but the fact of the matter is your region is garbage. The lineup...

Corey Thorne* - Good runner, probably a top 30 kind of guy on the right day; 8:49 steepler not bad but there are a lot better

Wesley Korir* - another stand out could be similar to Corey but he's more likely to have a bad one. I will give him credit on the 13:50, that's solid but he seems inconsistant to me, maybe that's just what XC does to him.

Siomo Kipalgat - A good midrange guy who can get inside the top 100, probably

Mike Eaton - Great freshman year, but injuries could limit his summer and performance... hmmmm, top 100 on a good day.

Ryan Bryne - Got close to 200th this past year, great guy to have as a 5th. most trophy teams will score as much (as a team) as he did this past season alone... watch for him to sneak into the top 150!

Scott McClain - Again, if you finish higher than 200th you aren't helping anyone but the teams running against you.

predicted point total and place: 370-450 (I know big range), 12th to 15th

Portland: Much, much better than the other two teams. After seeing so many people think Nova and Louisville have a shot at a trophy I think UP could win! But seriously, UP is a good team that should be top 10 for sure. They just aren't at the level of the Colorados, Stanfords, Ionas, Wiscos and Oregons. Here's the team...

John Moore* - Great runner, had a bad race this past year but he's a top 20 kind of guy . He could have a big impact on the race for Conner and Co.

Mike Kilburg* - Another good runner who had a bad day at nats last time, but he has great credentials on the track and should be a top 50 runner if not a wild card top 30.

David Kinsella* - Another great runner, but he's had some injury problems keeping him down. Staying injury free puts him top 50 with a similar option as Kilburg.

Justin Houck* - Good runner, not great but good (8:59 steeple). Finished 180th(ish) this past year... He might be able to get between 100-150. Again that's the problem, finding the 4th and 5th. Much like Louisville, they are scoring as many points with their 5th as the top 5 teams score total.

Mike Quackenbush - Another good runner who had a bad day at nationals. I am starting to see a trend... He's better than he ran this past season, but who knows how much. He'll finish top 150 if he runs decent.

Point total and place: 280-370 7th to 12th (this is if they stay injury-free)

OK, so logic prevails.

And to CU's national title hopes... Doubt it, unless there is something I'm missing.

I have a sneaking suspision that Tebo is out with an injury. Vaughn is getting over a plantar tear, not easy to quickly overcome. They lost Strang, Heinonen and Nelson, and they are counting on true freshman to come through for the team, not just one but two... Tough to get just one to do it, let alone two. Here's their team:

Stephen Pifer* - One of the best the NCAA has to offer a top 10 kind of guy, need I say more

Brent Vaughn* - Without the plantar tear I would say an individual threat, with it... well it's ambiguous as best. I would think he should still be a top 40 guy but we'll have to see how he rounds into form.

Brad Harkraker - Chronically injured... Haven't seen him run a complete season yet. The kills consistancy, which is very important for this sort of thing. finishes around 125.

Pete Janson* - I'm counting him as a regional qualifier just because he has before and ran fast enough to in outdoor. But he doesn't seem to preform in XC for the buffs. But he does have the ability to be a top 30 guy, so I won't count him out..

Kenyon Nueman* - Very good runner, should be top 50. Maybe higher with Wetmore magic.

Anthony Chiluli* - Not a cross guy from what I've seen in the past. But he might be this year's surprise top 30 guy. I doubt it though.

Seth Demar - He beat Vaughn at the Shootout because they jog the Shootout... Has no one noticed that? It's a tune-up race. He might be this year's Erik Heinonen, but we'll see. Top 120

Matt Tebo - a great up-and-comer, but he's just that, up-and-coming. Plus, I've heard rumors that he still isn't over the injury he sustained at World XC. He could be the missing piece of the puzzle this year, but I doubt it.

Richard Medina - I watched this kid on the Footlocker video, great style, reminded me of a Mercado, but then he faded from the front to 18th in the last half mile. Tough to do it the first year in the NCAA, probably only a top 100 kind of guy (though that's very impressive for a true freshman)

Points and place: 170-275; 2nd to 7th but I could be wrong with Wetmore's Magic... but they are due for an off year so I will stick to my guns!

I have never seen someone look at worse case scenarios then you. Louisville was 15th last year and have improved a lot. Wesley Korir took 3rd at the NCAA 5k last year. And you think he is 30th at best? He has a very good shot at top 10. If everyone is healthy Louisville is a top 10 team.

And the way you give CU no credit makes me laugh.

I like your analysis of Portland and it's probably about right. I could see them finishing as high as 5th or 6th, or as low as 12th or so. I think your overall assessment is good, but some things in there need tweaking. A healthy Kinsella can run with Moore, do not be surprised if he is the #1 guy come nationals, he is THAT good. Let's not forget 12th at NCAA 10k. He and Moore both could challenge for top 15-20. I find it unlikely they'll both break into the top 20, but I wouldn't be surprised for them to go 17, 23, 40 (Kilburg). They've also got Colin Longmuir and Tommy Betterbed who are about on Houck and Quackenbush's level. Any two of them have breakout seasons and they'll finish in the top-100. But many teams can make this claim, so it's moot really. Throw in injury wildcard Zuber Ahmed who could finish in the top-80 if he's healthy or just as likely not run a race all season.

The top 3-4 teams though are very, very far ahead. Two years ago when Portland got 8th (9th?) and Moore garnered AA, he would've finished as Wisco's 6th man I believe. That's how good the top teams are. It's usually a 3-5 team battle for first, while everyone else fights to see who can be the best of the rest.

I'm not sure if this has been brought up but Northern Arizona is getting a new Aussie, David McNiel, he finished top 50 at WORLD CROSS (open) this year also. Him plus Lopez Lamong will be nasty mix for NA.

and maybe Scott Simmons and one of his runners.

Tim Goldsack wrote:

I have never seen someone look at worse case scenarios then you. Louisville was 15th last year and have improved a lot. Wesley Korir took 3rd at the NCAA 5k last year. And you think he is 30th at best? He has a very good shot at top 10. If everyone is healthy Louisville is a top 10 team.

And the way you give CU no credit makes me laugh.

Glad to make you laugh, but I never once said, "30 at best" for Korir. I said he was a similar runner to Thorne, placing-wise, who I said could be in the top 30.

Also, how is saying they will run better as a team than the previous season a worst case senarios?

One way or another we will see who's right at the end of the season. Maybe Louisville has done more than I know about, but given the stats and what I've seen from them they are a 12th to 15th kind of team.

I think I gave CU ample credit. I said they would be between 2nd and 7th! How is 2nd not good? I also gave CU credit when I said Wetmore could very well prove me wrong...

But I give you the facts:

1) Vaughn tore his plantar (tough to make a full comback off that kind of thing)

2) Tebo is rumored to still be hurt

3) If you're counting on freshman to come through at nationals you're in trouble

4) Janson has yet to have a stand out season in XC

5) Harkraker is always hurt

6) The Buffs jog (should I say steady-state) the Shootout

7) I left this one out but it could be inferred by my Wetmore's Magic comment, Wetmore knows what he's doing and will have his team ready

[quote]To all the idiots wrote:

Wesley Korir* - another stand out could be similar to Corey but he's more likely to have a bad one. I will give him credit on the 13:50, that's solid but he seems inconsistant to me, maybe that's just what XC does to him.

How is taking 3rd at NCAAs in the 5k inconsistent? He also ran 13:40 in that race not 13:50. Mann has his runners improve not run what they did last year. Plus the biggest talent on their team may actually be healthy this year.

PS. no way Vaughn takes 40th

Tim Goldsack wrote:

[quote]To all the idiots wrote:

Wesley Korir* - another stand out could be similar to Corey but he's more likely to have a bad one. I will give him credit on the 13:50, that's solid but he seems inconsistant to me, maybe that's just what XC does to him.

How is taking 3rd at NCAAs in the 5k inconsistent? He also ran 13:40 in that race not 13:50. Mann has his runners improve not run what they did last year. Plus the biggest talent on their team may actually be healthy this year.

PS. no way Vaughn takes 40th

OK, I don't know what your deal is. It looks like I gave him a very good write-up, minus the typo, sorry about that. Should have been a 13:40. I will explain my inconsistancy comment though. Here was my reasoning. He took 11th at the regional and 93rd at Nationals... 93rd, a guy who places 93rd usually is not a top 3 guy in track. He was, he seems to run better in track, an inconsistancy between seasons if you will. That was also my gut feeling about him in cross, it could be wrong.

Now, if you would read what I wrote you would see that I did not say Vaughn will BE 40th. I said he will probably drop to a top 40 kind of guy DUE TO AN INJURY, which he sustained at the NCAA nationals. He tore his plantar muscle which can be difficult to come back from. The prediction is based on the injury and the difficult of recovering from a big injury like the one he sustained.

You are obviously a big Louisville fan, would you care to tell me who your most talented, healthy runner is? I'm thinking it is Mike Eaton... am I right?

No I'm not a Louisville fan just a fan of the sport. And no it is not Eaton. It is a kid who has one nationals before.

a kid who has "one" nationals before, or a kid who has "won" nationals before?

Either way I have no idea who you're talking about.

No one does.

Nelson back for one more season.

CU wrote:

Nelson back for one more season.

Maybe in indoors but there is no way he gets XC. He has already competed in four NCAA nationals and four Big XII XC races. He doesn't have any XC left.

[/quote]CU wrote:

Nelson back for one more season.[/quote]

Here's Billy Nelson's NCAA history:

2002 finished 42

2003 finished 13

2004 red shirted

2005 finished 76

2006 finished 56

Thus no more XC for Billy Nelson, good try though.

Are some of you seriously as dumb as you sound?

Kiplagat.

Oregon will win it all...but the west is stacked with Portland, Stanford, Washington all up there nationally.

NAU should be very solid this year. Whoever inherits this program could look good. Lamong at #1, then probably the Aussie guy that was top 50 or 60 at Worlds, then either Bostrum or Cardenais. That is 4 VERY solid people. After that they have a lot of guys that could step up including a freshman from Cali (9:00 or something close) and several 14:30 guys. Should be decent - certainly top 10 if they get someone that even knows a little about running.

You are right about NAU. think people have discounted them as being out the past few years when all along they've been 1 guy away from doing VERY well. this will be the year with all those guys you mention (Lomong and the Aussie leading). Too bad Hayes won't be there to see it play out. hope they bring in someone good, but even if not, they could still do well with that crew.