NCAA 10k - The Way I see It

NCAA Couch Quarterback wrote:Rupps biggest advantage over the field is his strength and he gave that advantage away by letting the pace be slow. Not real bright racing.

I've never had a hamstring injury, but (aside from possible compromised training) would that kind of injury desire someone to go slower?? The only thing is, a slower pace means a sprint finish.

Rupp has worn the hamstring wrap all season including in his 27:31 10k a few weeks ago. It's precautionary Vin has said.

so many competitors had a chance? there were three guys who had a chance, the same as you posit would be there under your race plan. mcdougal certainly wouldn't have been dropped at a faster pace and songok wouldn't have either. both of those guys could run 28:00, too.

chuck d wrote:

so many competitors had a chance? there were three guys who had a chance, the same as you posit would be there under your race plan. mcdougal certainly wouldn't have been dropped at a faster pace and songok wouldn't have either. both of those guys could run 28:00, too.

So you actually think the better 10k runner has just a good a shot in a slow paced race then he does in a fast paced race?????????????? Even when he has shown a past history of being outkicked?

usually it shouldn't make much of a difference; at a place like ncaa champs, though, a faster pace would be more advisable if you are worried about faster kickers. but i just don't think 28:00 pace would have made much of a difference. it's all pissing in the wind, anyway. songok ran a perfect race. he's peaking. rupp has other fish to fry this year. i don't think anyone in the oregon or rupp camp is crying about second place at ncaa.

I don't know how much you want to split hairs and analyze, but I have a few clarifications for you:

Rupp ran 27:33 for his record. Abdi actually ran 27:31 a few weeks ago in Hengelo.

Rupp didn't actually make it out of his 5000 prelim last year. In 2005, he finished second in the 10,000 in 28:23 to Cheseret's PR of 28:20.

The 'kid' from BYU is Josh Rohatinsky. I'm glad he was in that race, although I never found out for sure how since he was competing unattached when he ran his 27:55 (due to BYU not being allowed to compete on Sundays?).

True, he allowed the pace to go slower, but the others, like Songok, are no slouches and should be commended for their efforts. It was a great race and I sure as hell hope Flocasts is allowed to show it after this weekend (since I'm sure the CBS highlight will not do it justice...I hope I'm proven wrong).

chuck d wrote:

so many competitors had a chance? there were three guys who had a chance, the same as you posit would be there under your race plan. mcdougal certainly wouldn't have been dropped at a faster pace and songok wouldn't have either. both of those guys could run 28:00, too.

When you've run 27:31 for a collegiate record, then you're doing the competitors a favor by not setting a good pace. The threadstarter's right. Regarding McDougal, he hasn't proven to run 28:00 at all. In fact, he's proven the contrary.

Huge difference between running 27:33 in a perfectly rabbited race under pristine conditions and trying to run that kind of pace from the front without a rabbit. No way Rupp would have run that kind of time yesterday if he took it from the gun. Probably looking more at a time in the ballpark of 28:00. As Chuck D said, Songok & McDougal can run that kind of pace, so that doesn't solve his problem of getting rid of those guys before the final drive. The moral of the story is that you have to be able to kick to win championships for the most part.How many times have we seen the favorite in a distance race lose in the olympics or U.S. champs or NCAA champs because there was a better kicker in the field? Winning championships means you have to have a great kick.

ttc wrote:

chuck d wrote:

so many competitors had a chance? there were three guys who had a chance, the same as you posit would be there under your race plan. mcdougal certainly wouldn't have been dropped at a faster pace and songok wouldn't have either. both of those guys could run 28:00, too.

When you've run 27:31 for a collegiate record, then you're doing the competitors a favor by not setting a good pace. The threadstarter's right. Regarding McDougal, he hasn't proven to run 28:00 at all. In fact, he's proven the contrary.

the way i look at it, rupp's plan effectively eliminated all competition for the win, except one. songok ran a great race. he's in peak form. he has the endurance and he also has the speed. as californian points out, that's a deadly combination in championships. i don't believe rupp the rabbit runs away from those guys under any circumstances and, quite frankly, he may actually lose out to other guys (like macdougal) if he tried. rupp ran a pretty good race; songok just ran a better one.

And if McDougal hadn't run a 5K the evening before, don't you think he might have been able to squeeze out a 2.5+ second faster time and won this race. We'll never know, but I've got to believe the day before 5K that Mcdougal raced did take something out of him. No one fully recovers from a 5K within 24 hours.

maybe Rupp wasn't feeling good; having an off day. it happens.

i tend to agree with the original poster. of course, the results may not have been any different, but if you're the best guy in the field, you can control the race in a lot of different ways. rupp didn't have to lead from the gun, but he could've pushed the pace at 4 or 5k in when the pace was crawling or made a strong move earlier in the race. perhaps he thought he had the best kick of anyone, but he made a mistake in letting it come down to a kick.

he didn't really "let" it come down to a straight kick. his plan was to go from far enough out to draw the sting from the true kickers. he did do that but, as both rupp and salazar admitted, he didn't have enough "zip" between 800 and 400, for some reason.

You people are fools. I'm sick of hear about Rupp's 27.33 at Cardinal. He sat mid pack for a solid 20 minutes and started to move up with about 3k to go. He sat behind Galvan at 1200 and then started to push the pace. He just edged out Galvan.

This was the same strategy he used last night. Sat back, let Songok lead and he figured he'd move up and have more because he hadn't been frontrunning. He lost. Not a smart move when the guy frontrunning isn't running 27.33 too, but 28.55.

Rupp's 27.33 on a night where 15 guys ran sub 28 is not placing him as high as ya'll put him up.

People can have a bad race, but people can have a good race too that they never duplicate or surpass again.

?? wrote:

i tend to agree with the original poster. of course, the results may not have been any different, but if you're the best guy in the field, you can control the race in a lot of different ways. rupp didn't have to lead from the gun, but he could've pushed the pace at 4 or 5k in when the pace was crawling or made a strong move earlier in the race. perhaps he thought he had the best kick of anyone, but he made a mistake in letting it come down to a kick.

The chances of a faster paced race giving Rupp a better chance to win isn't much. About all it would have accomplished is making him feel better because he ran faster. I don't think the moral victory is what Rupp has in mind.

NCAA Couch Quarterback wrote:

Taken all these points together I'm not sure why Rupp would sit back and let the pace dwindle and allow so many people to have a shot at it.

Developmental purposes.