NCAA mens 10,000

I would suspect it will be tactical for at least 8k and then Rupp will put in a long surge for home. Given that McDougal will have run a 5k prelim and he is the class of the field, it might not be a bad idea to make the race sub 28:30 pace early on. However, I think that would be a huge risk to do alone so unless he gets help with the pacing, I would not do that. Additionally,Rupp's has now got a really good kick and if I were his coaches I would tell him to sit on someone and hangout until about 8k and see what he feels like and if it is too slow, just take it from there. He won the West regional 5k by waiting until the last 600 or so and considering the 10k is his best race, outkicking some other runners in the field should not be a problem given his gas tank.

How is McDougal the class of the field?

hes not. At the moment, that honor belongs to Rupp.

Doesn't McDougal have the best 5k pr out of everybody from Mr. Sac, 13:20?

umm...you sure? wrote:

Doesn't McDougal have the best 5k pr out of everybody from Mr. Sac, 13:20?

I do believe they are running the 10K, and that someone in the race not named McDougal has the American collegiate 10K record.

I guess McDougal is the class of the 5000 field, but not in the 10,000. This is especially evident in that he ran 28:27 in Rupp's record setting race. Yes, he is good, but doubling back so soon will be difficult against fresh guys.

i think the 2nd poster(u and me) was referring to Rupp when he said the "class of the field". He just didn't write it properly.

seeds?

What is the weather forcast? That will certainly play a role in the overall finishing time but I have no doubt the race will be tactical for at least the first 6-8k. After that, depending on how things shake out, folks could start making moves. I'll go out on a limb and predict Galen for the win. http://www.winningrunner.com

i think rupp is going to run hard and run under 28, he knows he will win off a fast pace, things get harder off a slow pace. he is only running one race so he should just go for it, drop the people who arent fast enough and those having a bad day right away. it will be interesting to see how mcdougal does, i would like to see him come in second to rupp, both with fast times.

What about Rohatinsky?? Does anyone think he will be up there? I think he has a good chance to battle with Rupp and McDougle

Rohatinsky will def. be up there. I feel as if a tactical race only benefits McDougal. He's got the endurance to be there with 2 laps to go and his 3:57 earlier in the season shows he's got some speed. If it's slow enough he could def. get the W or even second.

First 5K 14:15-14:20, then Rupp starts laying some surges that will not be fun to cover, and every time someone covers, BOOM another surge. He will break hearts and finish the second 5K in around 14:00-14:05 on uneven pacing, and a kick if need be. He's just starting to have fun.

The only thing McDougal will accomplish by entering both the 5K & 10K, will be to lose both. He probably couldn't beat Rupp and Rohatinsky anyway, and he certainly won't beat them having run a 5K semi-final the day before. Then when it comes to the 5K finals where McDougal would normally be expected to win, he won't because he will have likely run a very hard 10K the day before.

No one can fully recover from a 5K or 10K race within 24 hours. Some runners have doubled at NCAAs and won both the 5K and 10K -- but they were a big step up from their competition. McDougal isn't and I don't think Sally Kipyego of Kenya/Texas Tech. is either (at least not this year).

There is an old stock market adage that goes something like this: Bulls and Bears will each have their day, but Pigs always lose. In going for two NCAA championships, Josh and Sally will get none. Galen Rupp & Amy Hastings win the 10K and Chris Solinsky and Molly Huddle win the 5K.

you obviously haven't been following sally k's results this year, eh? it's not a matter of if she will pull off the double, it'll be by how much.

McDougal's top competitors in the 5K should run a very fast semi-finals race in both heats and make McDougal run a hard 5K to qualify. Then after a likely hard 10K the following day (Thursday), when it comes to the 5K finals on Friday, McDougal will be sufficiently exhausted so as to not be a factor.

2 Greety wrote:

There is an old stock market adage that goes something like this: Bulls and Bears will each have their day, but Pigs always lose. In going for two NCAA championships, Josh and Sally will get none. Galen Rupp & Amy Hastings win the 10K and Chris Solinsky and Molly Huddle win the 5K.

Finally a salient message board post!

rohat FTW!

how can anyone bet on mcdougal? he's a nice kid, but he's consistently shown he cannot run fast "when it matters".