Geb better get the marathon WR soon...

oh really?

if he does (which he wont) i will stop posting here and it will be the end of all humanity.

tergat is just too good, and it wont ever happen.

So if Wanjiru breaks the WR, you'll stop posting here? Wejo, put this on the front page!!

(Does anyone know where to send donations to help Wanjiru's training?)

Wanjuru wrote:

b/c Sammy's gonna put it out of sight by the end of 2008

Sammy has to get past Sammy first.

As we have learned from the performances of Haile G. and Paul Tergat, amazing performances of 10km to Half marathon do not necessarily mean that an athlete will perform as well in the full marathon that he/she does in the half.

We all thought that Paul Tergat would immediately destroy the marathon world record when he had his first go at the full marathon at London in 2001, but it took him 2 and a half years to do it, and he was almost beaten by Sammy Korir!

Samuel Wanjiru's new world record at Den Haag is truly amazing, and all of us eagerly await to see what he can do for the full marathon, but as we know, half-marathons are to full marathons as "apples are to watermelons."

Jason

I agree with Jason and others that super 1/2 marathons performances don't instantly translate to super full marathons. I've also notice that Samuel Wanjiru isn't like many of the thousands elite runners who have raced the 5000m, 10000m, and 1/2 marathon before him. While there has been numerous runners who personal best get better the higher the distance goes from 5000m to 1/2 marathon. Very, very few of them if any have such a dramatic performance difference from the 5000m to 10000m and 10000m to 1/2 marathon.

Samuel Personal best:

5000m.................13:11

10000m........26:41.75 (WJR)

1/2 marathon......58:35 (WR)

his stats prove that he gets MUCH better the further the distance. The fact that he recently improved his former 1/2 World Record so drastically in such a short period of time (both solo runs)- shows he can go much faster. I don't expect him to break the marathon World Record in his first attempt but Samuel does have all the neccessary tools needed to break Paul Tergats formiable WR. The question is how many marathon WR attempts/time trials will it take? I say less than 5!

Vipam wrote:

I say less than 5!

So, 2.5 years, minimum. Like Tergat.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Tergat, but I don't see why people have always assumed his marathon record will last forever when Korir was only one second behind him. KK WR wasn't all that much slower either. Not to mention you have guys like Geb and Kenny B out there. I still think Geb could break it, and I also think Bekele will eventually run faster than Tergat or Geb. Wanjiru, or however you spell his name, will blow Tergat's record away most likely. Like the other posters said, it will probably take several attempts, but it will happen. 2:04:30 or faster will happen.

Look, in September 2003, everything came together for Tergat (and Korir) on that day. Perfect weather, perfect pacing, the perfect course and competition.

EVERYTHING has to go just right to even have a chance for the world record. We are going on 4 years since Tergat and Korir had their amazing run in Berlin.

After watching Evans Rutto win the 2004 London Marathon after his amazing 2003 debut in Chicago, I thought that he could beat Tergat's record with his silky-smooth stride, but how wrong I was!

What makes the marathon so unpredictable is the last 10km. The body can only store enough glycogen to last 32km, but the race is 42km. The athlete has to have the ability to burn fat very efficiently, and time will tell if Samuel Wanjiru can do this better than anybody.

Look at what happened to Haile G. at Berlin last year. He was ahead of record pack going into the final 10km but fell apart in the last 5km, due to the less-than-ideal weather (wind and heat). So many things have to go just perfectly.

I think that there will be a huge bidding war between the big marathons for Wanjiru's "marathon virginity."

Jason

Jason

I know you have alot of marathon experience and training. Maybe I'm wrong but I think Samuel Wanjiru will be to marathon what I thought Kenenisa Bekele would be to track several years ago. I do know that marathon is another beast compared to the 1/2 marathon; therefore, my prediction is based on my belief in Samuel Wanjiru talent. I believe the guy will show the world that his endurance in the marathon is what Kenenisa's is in the 10000m.

Samuel Wanjiru in my book is a marathoner waiting to happen. He may not go undefeated like Kenenisa in the 10000m but the marathon world record will eventually follow the name of Samuel Wanjiru. In the next few years I think he could improve 10-15 seconds in the 10000m and anywhere from 20-35 seconds in the 1/2 marathon. If he stays healthy and focused I think his endurance and body's enegry proficency will be better suited for the marathon then his great 1/2 marathon performances.

Vipam wrote:

While there has been numerous runners who personal best get better the higher the distance goes from 5000m to 1/2 marathon. Very, very few of them if any have such a dramatic performance difference from the 5000m to 10000m and 10000m to 1/2 marathon.

Samuel Personal best:

5000m.................13:11

10000m........26:41.75 (WJR)

1/2 marathon......58:35 (WR)

his stats prove that he gets MUCH better the further the distance.

I wouldn't say that a 58:35 half-marathon by a 20-year-old is "MUCH better" than a 26:41 10,000 by an 18-year-old. In fact, I'm not sure which performance is more impressive.

There have been a number of world-class half-marathoners who have not yet managed a world-class marathon. I remember how Mark Curp, for example, used to come apart in the last few miles of each marathon he attempted. And in recent years, brilliant half-marathoners like Fabiano Joseph and John Yuda of Tanzania have yet to master the marathon. (Joseph still has time.)

Although I don't buy the extreme view that great half-marathon performances have little correlation with great marathon performances, or that great half-marathon performances may actually signal problems in later marathons, I'm not yet willing to declare Wanjiru to be the heir apparent in the marathon. But I agree that he's a very exciting prospect.

I will say this for Wanjiru's marathoning prospects: I think it bodes well that he has developed his talent in Japan, which has developed so many pure marathoners over the years.

Wanjiru has stated in an after race interview that he is going to attempt the Fukuoka marathon in december this year, he also said that he will be attempting to lower the half marathon WR even further in rottredam after running the 10,000m at the world champs

Just throwing this out there ... but what about him possibly doing amazing things to the 10000m record in the future?

well, he is defintly capable of lowering his 26:41 but getting down to 26:17 will be hard even for someone like him. Personally i think that bekele is going to lower his world record even further, if wanjiru is in the race then it could be very fast because he isnt concerned about taking it on himself and running from the front

I think that part of the reason why there is such a range between his 5k, 10k and half PB's is because he has run so few of the former 2....

I watched the 10k race where he ran 26.41 (the same race in which Bekele broke the WR) and he was head to head with Bek until beyond 6k.... i.e. I think if he had run a more conservative first 5k, he could have come home around the 26.30 mark....

So given that he has since improved his half marathon time by 40+ seconds, I don't think it is beyond the bounds of reality for this guy to get 10k track time down below 26.17.... hopefully we will see him make a few attempts this summer!

I think that you have a point there, i agree with you about the fact that he has only ran a few 5's and 10's. If the pace was right he probably could get the 10k world record, i still think that he will lower the half marathon record another 20 seconds. I hope that he does try out a few 10k's this year because it would be great to see him and bekele battling it out. I would also like to see tadesse and gebrselassie race wanjiru at the half marathon because in my view they are the three best half marathoners in the world at the moment. How fast do u reckon Wanjiru could go in the 10k, half marathon and marathon as he will be competing in at least one of each this year.

I feel the same as MAYEROFF. If conditions are not perfect it will be difficult for Geb to beat the record. If Korir was not there would Tergat have run under 2:05? At the moment the win was way more important to Tergat then the record.

runninggod wrote:

How fast do u reckon Wanjiru could go in the 10k, half marathon and marathon as he will be competing in at least one of each this year.

He mentions running the 10k in the world champs, but doesn't talk about chasing records.... If he does I would predict:

10k: 26.20- 26.25

Half: 58.20

Marathon: 2.04:30 - 2.05:30

Whether those are all achieveable this season.... I haven't got a clue!

I do think he would cane Geb at the half though.... I think Geb has come very close to the limit with both his half and marathon times.

Why do you think that geb has reached his potential? Last year he only ran two half marathons which both had barely any opposition, do you not think that if he was in a race with someone like Wanjiru, Tadesse or Kosgei that he might not be pushed to a better time. Likewise in the marathon, i think that he might go close to the world record in London this year if he wanted to because there is such great competition. I agree with the title though because if he doesnt get the record soon it will probably be put out of reach by someone like tadesse or wanjiru because time is with them. Im not sure who else is doing the Fukuoka marathon but if there is competition i wouldnt be surprised if Wanjiru ran under 2:06 but it all depends on if he can get pacing for the first half right because we all know that he can push himself enough in the second half of the race