The heat and humidity at Nationals will be the real story.
I fully expect those WIACers to lay down some Uberfast times.
Throw in the Pomona boys for the 800 and mile convos too.
Steeple could be really exiting with Kirkpatrick, Patzka, Collet all capable of running sub 8:40. The real question is whether they run fast enough to make the trials.
We all know who the front runners are going to be in the races by now I’m more interested in what people think the qualifying standards will be in the 1500-10k. Also rumor has it the steeple prelim/final are now thursday/friday instead of thursday/saturday. How does this effect those planning to double in events like patska. Does it now make the steeple/5k/10k triple possible? My guess for qualifying is 3:46/9:00/14:06/29:48. I want to hear others thoughts though.
Mile was weak to get in this year, so the 1500 might be as well. It was 3:47.7 last year, and could be a little faster but I’d be surprised if it’s by a full second. Most of the final from last year ended up graduating/ transferring. My guess is 3:47 mid.
Steeple was 9:03 last year. From a quick glance at tfrrs I think it only has 4 guys graduating from last year. Could see it being even faster than 9:00, I’ll say 8:58.
The indoor 5k was really strong, especially for All-American. 14:06 seems really quick though, and fast outdoor races are sometimes harder to come by compared to indoor. 14:08 is my guess for that.
Last year the 10k was extremely weak, 29:57 to get in. I think guys will look at that and think it’s their best shot, and the time will improve by a ton as a result. I’ll say 29:42. And no, the triple is not feasible.
I feel like steeple is what most people view as their best shot. 9:00 isn't easy on debut but a tall 8:20 runner knows he has no shot at qualifying in the 5000 so why not give it a go? In D1 east, the 48th fastest 5000m runner was 13:50, while the 48th best steepler was 8:54. A lot of people are scared of the steeple but I believe a sub 8:10 runner should be able to break 9:00 in a debut regardless of how bad his form is.
10000 is hard because few programs fly out to California and running a 10000 in crap northeast weather isn't conducive to fast times.
Mile was weak to get in this year, so the 1500 might be as well. It was 3:47.7 last year, and could be a little faster but I’d be surprised if it’s by a full second. Most of the final from last year ended up graduating/ transferring. My guess is 3:47 mid.
Steeple was 9:03 last year. From a quick glance at tfrrs I think it only has 4 guys graduating from last year. Could see it being even faster than 9:00, I’ll say 8:58.
The indoor 5k was really strong, especially for All-American. 14:06 seems really quick though, and fast outdoor races are sometimes harder to come by compared to indoor. 14:08 is my guess for that.
Last year the 10k was extremely weak, 29:57 to get in. I think guys will look at that and think it’s their best shot, and the time will improve by a ton as a result. I’ll say 29:42. And no, the triple is not feasible.
I feel like steeple is what most people view as their best shot. 9:00 isn't easy on debut but a tall 8:20 runner knows he has no shot at qualifying in the 5000 so why not give it a go? In D1 east, the 48th fastest 5000m runner was 13:50, while the 48th best steepler was 8:54. A lot of people are scared of the steeple but I believe a sub 8:10 runner should be able to break 9:00 in a debut regardless of how bad his form is.
10000 is hard because few programs fly out to California and running a 10000 in crap northeast weather isn't conducive to fast times.
In theory, it sounds easy. But the number of men that have broken 9:00 is still pretty small. During the regular season - 12 men last year, 3 in 2022, 1 in 2021, 3 in 2019.
Over 50 men ran a time faster than 8:20 converted, so maybe we'll see something incredible this Spring. Pretty much the whole field is returning, so it should be fast. I think seven men ran top 25 marks in D3 history and all but Ruggles return.
Hard to tell right now, but Wartburg was pretty dominant at nationals in that single event. La-Crosse on a tear right now though and I'd probably bet they will perform better this year with a team title repeat (from indoors) on the line.
After Platteville 5k’s, there’s conversation with not only the Steeple, but the 5k as well. La Crosse and Wartburg are easily the strongest teams at the top (and depth wise, too) in the Steeple, 5k, and 10k, for that matter. Will be cool to see them go at it at not only Nationals, but next fall, too.
UW-La Crosse has 9000 more students than Wartburg and is considerably cheaper (in a state with only one decent D1). They should be crushing Wartburg. The next couple weeks I bet they'll pass them up.
This is such a stupid and over used argument. This is not high school where you try to convert the student body to athletics, runners choose to compete in college before they attend that college, not after (at least none worth anything). The only comparable argument is number of majors or roi, which then you probably have a pretty good argument since La Crosse is a lot of in state at a state school vs a private college.
Halfway through the season, La Crosse is currently 2, 9, 18, 24, 25, and Wartburg is currently 6, 7, 13, 16, 26, in the steeple. Really cool to see how dominate these schools are and how much depth they have in this event. A big steeple week is ahead of us, though, so this will likely change.
This post was edited 18 seconds after it was posted.
This is such a stupid and over used argument. This is not high school where you try to convert the student body to athletics, runners choose to compete in college before they attend that college, not after (at least none worth anything). The only comparable argument is number of majors or roi, which then you probably have a pretty good argument since La Crosse is a lot of in state at a state school vs a private college.
You're missing the point, intentionally.
The point the referring poster was making is that LaCrosse has a huge advantage because Wisconsin is a state that only has few D1 schools and almost no D2 programs to speak of, therefore a lot of talent that would otherwise be going up and level stays put and pays little to attend.
Compare that to say, Pennsylvania, where there are 14 D1 schools and 22 D2 schools.
If you're a 1:54 guy coming out of PA, you have a lot of options and you're likely getting some money to go D2; if you're in WI, you're going to Lax or EC and that's just a huge advantage over a school like Wartburg.