Predict the leaders will go through on pace or under with Young in tow, Nico will start to feel last weekend's races in his legs around 8k, will not be able to hang with the leaders at that point (Fisher, Grijalva, Nur, maybe Klecker) and will drop out to prevent injury since he won't get the standard. If he decides to finish instead he'll be right around 27:15-27:20.
I think he has a better shot at the 5k this year anyways and can try for a faster 10k time next year in preparation for Tokyo 2025. My guess is he goes pro this summer and won't have to race as much before the Ten next year.