If Katir brings his indoor 3000m shape he can be should be one of the top favorites. His finish in the 1500m final in Eugene was "OK".
I also think Kipkorir has earned a place with the top dogs considering his performances in fast 5000m´s in the last year.
Kejelcha normally runs rather defensively apart from last year where he needed a time to qualify to the WC.
Why is Mo Ahmed not valued higher: He almost always delivers in the important races? Even though he exploded in the finish in the 5000m final in Eugene he still 50m out looked to take another international medal (and still beating Barega, Cheptegei and Kejelcha).
Reasoning:
Katir has a decent, not great finish, this was an assessment of whether I expect a win not a top 3 finish. He very well could run a great race but I find other athletes more likely to win.
I am high on Kipkorir, but I feel like this field is so deep and he struggles the deeper a field gets. Could see him waste a lot of energy maneuvering.
Kejelcha has run 12:50 and I suspect he wants a track time, too. He’s run all season aggressively so I’m dubious he’ll sit and kick.
For Mo Ahmed, is this an important race? It’s June 2nd and he skipped indoors. I suspect running sub-13 would be a good result for him.
OK I agree that it is very difficult to come out as a winner in this loaded field.
I agree with your 3 most likely winners.
I think your groups 2A-3 runners AND Woody and Ahmed are most likely to podium.
But humle enough to realizing there still can be surprises. Not many would have guessed the silver medalist in the 10.000m final in Eugene last year (supposing some people here can´t remember who it was!?) or the no. 3 and 4 in the 5000m final.
Historically the top athletes are ready to run fast early in the DL season. For just one relevant example, last year’s Pre Classic was run 5 days earlier than the upcoming Rome DL and Kipyegon beat Tsegay 3:52 to 3:54, with 9th place being 4:00.34 (Cory McGee in her lifetime best). And Kipyegon just ran 3:58.57 with a 58.7 last 400 in Doha which clearly shows she’s ready to run well under 3:57. So your post is honestly phooey.
We'll have to wait and see....
I hope I'm wrong and it ends up quicker than my guess.
