Here is the race video:
Note from Rojo: This thread was initially titled, "NCAA top 16 improvements men distance" but we changed it to make it more descriptive. I appreciate the OP's research but his data reveals the exact opposite of what he or she concluded. Their own data reveals the average yearly improvement from 2020 to now is much greater than from 2010 to 2020.
The data reveals in the mile that from 2010 to 2020, the average improvement was .108 seconds per year. Since then, it's been 0.67 seconds per year so that's 620% more per year.
The data reveals in the 3k that from 2010 to 2020, the average imporvement was 0.642 saconds per year. Since then it's been 1.1833 seconds per year. That's an 84% improvement.
For the 5k, the average improvement per year from 2010 to 2020 was 1.262 seconds per year. Since then it's been 2.23 seconds per year - a 76.7% improvement.
Shoes matter A LOT. Go ask Andy Powell, Jerry S, Dave Smith, Jason Vigilante, etc. Hell ask any college coach that has been at the same school for 10 years. They haven't changed their coaching but their guys are suddenly way faster.
Here is a story I wrote comparing things from 2021 to 2019:
Recall that the leading collegiate times referred to above do not typically include the NCAA championships because they are indoor qualifying times from tfrrs. So, in the year COVID shut everything down in March (2019-20), only a few conference champs--usually slow anyway--were cancelled (Ivies and some D3, at least), along with nationals. Hence, I don't think the #'s were affected by that. 2020-21, the first full COVID indoors, it is true that indoor times were affected by xc continuing until March, but it was also affected by the fact that not only were numerous runners suspended from training and racing at various times because of positive COVID tests and illness, but a number of the best meets were outdoors that fall-winter, and those times didn't count for indoor qualifying. Hence, the NAU times outdoors didn't go on there, and I'm sure there were quite a few others. 2021-22 was the first indoor year during COVID to not be too visibly affected by it, though deaths were still high in December-January that year and cases were extremely high from omicron, so I imagine that some couldn't race or train at times from positive tests.
Shoes driving almost all of the time improvements both in training (can work out harder, more often, quicker recovery) and racing (general tech improvements akin to shift to carbon plate but on steroids). Combine the two and you have 90-100+ guys running sub 4 in the NCAA across divisions in the last two years versus roughly 30-40 per year in the decade prior.
sorry you set your PRs in new tech, nobody is saying you aren’t a good athlete, it’s just very obvious that you had a greater advantage than runners 5 years ago — just like they had an advantage over runners 10 years before then and so on.
Rumford wrote:
The data is even clearer outdoors--probably because anybody any good at all goes somewhere to attempt a regional mark, whereas indoors programs might not send someone out of region who can't get an indoor qualifier (infinitely harder). Here is the 100th best 5000m NCAA time over the last decade.
2022 13:46 Super spikes, post covid
2021 13:52 Super spikes, but COVID limited travel and overall participation
2019 14:03 Old shoes
2018 14:03
2017 14:04
2016 14:02
2015 14:04
2014 14:05
2013 14:06
2012 14:04
This data, along with that of altitude-hermit, basically destroy the OP's argument.
Also, for those saying the extra COVID 5th/6th years account for a significant percentage of the performance gain:
2019: 13:46 was 28th in NCAA
2019: 32 Seniors in top 100
2022: 13:46 was 100th in NCAA
2022: 33 Seniors in top 100
If you believe that coaching and opportunities improved in 3 years to account for any significant percentage of these enormous shifts in performance, I think you are delusional.
Rumford wrote:
Also, for those saying the extra COVID 5th/6th years account for a significant percentage of the performance gain:
2019: 13:46 was 28th in NCAA
2019: 32 Seniors in top 1002022: 13:46 was 100th in NCAA
2022: 33 Seniors in top 100If you believe that coaching and opportunities improved in 3 years to account for any significant percentage of these enormous shifts in performance, I think you are delusional.
I mean, wow.
I'd like to hear the arguments of people who disagree with the "super shoes give you an advantage" theory who have now seen this data.
13:36 went from 28th to 100th in the NCAA in 3 years.
Emma Coburn to miss Olympic Trials after breaking ankle in Suzhou
Jakob on Oly 1500- “Walk in the park if I don’t get injured or sick”
VALBY has graduated (w/ honors) from Florida, will she go to grad school??
1:49.84 - 800m Freshmen National Record - Cooper Lutkenhaus (check this kick out!!)
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
Congrats to Kyle Merber - Merber has left Citius for position w/ Michael Johnson's track league