An analysis of NCAA top 16 improvements from 2010 to now. Here is evidence super spikes don't help

Hot Takes wrote:

A lot of talk about 'super spikes'. I just went through quick every few years and took the 16th fastest time in the mile/3k/5k for NCAA men. For 2022/2023 indoor season I removed seniors since they normally wouldn't be in the NCAA as they got an extra year of eligibility from COVID. People currently listed as sophomores are actually juniors, juniors are actually seniors, seniors should be phased out but some of them came back for that last year of eligibility.

Anyway, here are the 16th place times for mile/3k/5k in 2010, 2015, 2020 (regular season completed, NCAA meet was canceled) and 2023 when removing seniors.

Year - 2010 -> 2015 -> 2020 -> 2023

Mile - 3:59.17 -> 3:58.25 -> 3:58.09 -> 3:56.08

3k - 7:57.42 -> 7:53.27 -> 7:51.00 -> 7:47.45

5k - 13:53.61 -> 13:47.22 -> 13:40.99 -> 13:34.30

As you can see, every few years the cutoff is getting tougher and tougher. The time improvements in the past three years are similar to the time improvements between 2010-2014 and the time improvements from. I realize I go from skipping five years at a time to only skipping three years to now but I don't really feel like going back to doing exactly three years each time.

If you use this as evidence, then you could maybe say the 'super spikes' make you run zero to one second faster per mile you're racing. Really I'd say this is evidence that they don't make you faster, and the NCAA has been getting faster consistently, and we saw similar improvement the past few years as we've been seeing. Saying a 13:20 guy today would only be 13:30 before the new spikes is a ridiculous statement.

it is time wrote:

Hot Takes wrote:

A lot of talk about 'super spikes'. I just went through quick every few years and took the 16th fastest time in the mile/3k/5k for NCAA men. For 2022/2023 indoor season I removed seniors since they normally wouldn't be in the NCAA as they got an extra year of eligibility from COVID. People currently listed as sophomores are actually juniors, juniors are actually seniors, seniors should be phased out but some of them came back for that last year of eligibility.

Anyway, here are the 16th place times for mile/3k/5k in 2010, 2015, 2020 (regular season completed, NCAA meet was canceled) and 2023 when removing seniors.

Year - 2010 -> 2015 -> 2020 -> 2023

Mile - 3:59.17 -> 3:58.25 -> 3:58.09 -> 3:56.08

3k - 7:57.42 -> 7:53.27 -> 7:51.00 -> 7:47.45

5k - 13:53.61 -> 13:47.22 -> 13:40.99 -> 13:34.30

As you can see, every few years the cutoff is getting tougher and tougher. The time improvements in the past three years are similar to the time improvements between 2010-2014 and the time improvements from. I realize I go from skipping five years at a time to only skipping three years to now but I don't really feel like going back to doing exactly three years each time.

If you use this as evidence, then you could maybe say the 'super spikes' make you run zero to one second faster per mile you're racing. Really I'd say this is evidence that they don't make you faster, and the NCAA has been getting faster consistently, and we saw similar improvement the past few years as we've been seeing. Saying a 13:20 guy today would only be 13:30 before the new spikes is a ridiculous statement.

Agreed. We've seen jumps before in qualifying. It's nothing new.

These days, coaches are getting younger and more in touch with trends in training. They're more able to reach out to others for information. The athletes can see races every weekend on streaming services and stay completely up to date on the NCAA. The bar keeps getting raised and humans always rise to the occasion.

Sure, the shoes help, but a lot of it is placebo effect. If you honestly believed a shoe helped you improve 3-4 seconds a mile you're going to race more confident, take more risks, and gain a lot of the benefits mentally.

I remember when the Zoom Kennedys (the first track version) came out or the original Zoom Victories came out. These spikes came out to better match the demands of distance races and people started running a lot faster. My whole team wouldn't wear anything but the Victorys or the Matumbos for a few years after that.

Hot Takes wrote:

Rumford wrote:

It makes me laugh how hard people are working to downplay the role of the shoes. It's so obviously the shoes, but yeah, sure, why not say it's better coaching everywhere all at once starting in 2021. If you're so sure it's not the shoes, why not line up in an old pair and see what happens?

For a clearer picture, look at the 100th best NCAA time across the years. You'll see 2.5-4 seconds / mile. Top 16 less clear just because of the low number of data points and the randomness of having everything come together (pacing, field) for a really fast race.

Another data point. Johnny G ran 3:49 pre 'super spikes' when Kejelcha ran the WR. In this thread I stated they help a second per mile or less (i lean more to less).. But let's say it's a second. You're saying I'm wrong and it's more than a second per mile. So you're saying Johnny G a couple years ago would have run 3:47 or better and have the world record if he had new spikes? I don't really think that's accurate.

Ffhjh wrote:

Hot Takes wrote:

Another data point. Johnny G ran 3:49 pre 'super spikes' when Kejelcha ran the WR. In this thread I stated they help a second per mile or less (i lean more to less).. But let's say it's a second. You're saying I'm wrong and it's more than a second per mile. So you're saying Johnny G a couple years ago would have run 3:47 or better and have the world record if he had new spikes? I don't really think that's accurate.

Stop using a single data point. Arguing whether or not so and so would run such and such is pointless because, you know, it’s only a single set of data. We’ll never know if Gregorek would’ve run 3:47 on that day in new spikes because we can’t go back in time. All we can do is look at a group of runners over a continuous period of time and try and make the best sense out of it. In all US mid and distance races (excluding the 800m) indoor and outdoor men and women for top 100 athletes average times there is 0 improvements between 2012-2019. For some distances there is a minor improvement between 2010-2012 but nothing noteworthy. As soon as 2021 hit all times in all events (except 800m) improved dramatically. What changed that could possibly account for improvement in times?

WhatElseChanged wrote:

Ffhjh wrote:

Stop using a single data point. Arguing whether or not so and so would run such and such is pointless because, you know, it’s only a single set of data. We’ll never know if Gregorek would’ve run 3:47 on that day in new spikes because we can’t go back in time. All we can do is look at a group of runners over a continuous period of time and try and make the best sense out of it. In all US mid and distance races (excluding the 800m) indoor and outdoor men and women for top 100 athletes average times there is 0 improvements between 2012-2019. For some distances there is a minor improvement between 2010-2012 but nothing noteworthy. As soon as 2021 hit all times in all events (except 800m) improved dramatically. What changed that could possibly account for improvement in times?

How about faster World Athletic Qualifying standards and the new ranking system? After that change there have been more time trial style races with very fast times rather than slow tactical races.