MN Cross Country Predictions 2023

Section 6AAA will be very strong again. The best in the state. It will have Edina next year. So the rich became richer.

Wayzata will win that section again on the boys side, and for second place it will be a fight between Minneapolis Southwest and Edina.

Southwest has very strong top 4, including an individual who will be the favorite to win state. Their 5th and 6th returners were barely below 5 minutes in the 1600. It will help them if they close the 4-5 gap.

Edina returns all 3 individual state qualifiers (Haerter, Danielson, Nybeck), their 6&7, another 10:14 guy, and some more sub-4:50 runners to add depth.

Hopkins looks to be strong too with the younger Drevlow healthy. They have some underclassmen and incoming freshmen that really stepped up last year. They did lose their #1 guy though.

Minneapolis Washburn will be good but not good enough to qualify for state again. They lost state champ Jones and another scorer. They return 2 sub-4:40 guys, a 16:32 guy, and another 17:35 xc guy. No one else broke 5 minutes in the 1600.

For Armstrong it will be a rebuilding year after graduating Breker and many other varsity guys. They do return a strong #1 in Wiegert who almost made state last year individually and will also be back for the 2024 season.

On the individuals side, section 6AAA will be tough too. This section has:
-3 Edina qualifiers from last year (Haerter, Danielson, Nybeck)
-Hopkins individuals (Hering, younger Drevlow, and sub-10 3200 incoming freshman Morse)
-Washburn individuals (Dickel, Just, and Oscar Olson Gross)
-Southwest fab 4 (Sam Scott, Meyer, Batalden, Ueland)
-Wiegert from Armstrong who almost qualified last year
-A bunch of Wayzata guys. Wayzata will win as a team, which will give more room for other individuals to qualify for state.

Boys AAA State Meet early team predictions
1. Wayzata
2. Minnetonka
3. Mounds View
4. Minneapolis Southwest
5. Bloomington Jefferson
6. Eden Prairie
7. Lakeville South
8. Stillwater
9. East Ridge
10. Blaine
11. Rosemount
12. Buffalo
13. Moorhead
14. Lakeville North
15. Andover
16. Osseo
Edina is in 6AAA now
East Ridge is in 4AAA now

Is Mounds View becoming a powerhouse? Or maybe it is a cyclical deal and they are strong now?

Mounds View has had many great seasons, including a XC state title in 2019 and an NXN qualification in 2018 / 2019.
They also return these 3200 times for this coming season:
9:43, 9:46, 9:47, 9:53, 9:54, 10:01, 10:07, 10:09.
I’d say this is a lot of depth.

However, someone posted in this thread that both Mounds View’s and Stillwater’s head coaches are retiring, and that the assistant coaches of both teams will be taking over. I wonder how this will affect these teams.

Boys AAA Individual predictions
1. Sam Scott
2. Robert Mechura
3. Nolan Sutter
4. Hootie Hage
5. Will Weber
6. Daniel McCollor
7. Landon Hering
8. Cade Sanvik
9. River Santiago
10. Sean Fries
Weber and McCollor are very similar in terms of ability.
They can finish in either order.

Here’s some unfortunate news for Hopkins: Emmett Morse is actually going to Minnehaha Academy for high school (he was a lot of fun to watch and of course everyone at Hopkins is wishing him the best). With him and Tony Provenzano (who moved to indiana and ran 8:5x this season) they could have had some kind of team this year! Still, they have a good core of varsity guys and some really good-looking young runners who have been improving fast.

In Section 4AAA it will be a tight battle between Stillwater, East Ridge, and White Bear Lake for the 2 state berths.

Stillwater loses 3 scorers but returns the following:
Foote - 12 - 16:12 (outside of conference) / 4:37 / 10:05 PR in 2022
Riniker - 11 - 9:40
Walsh - 11 - 9:53 / 4:39 / 16:37 (outside of conference)
Richter - 12 - 10:14 3200
Gerald - 11 - 4:47 (was in the top 7 on the team for sections, state, and NXR)
Like I have mentioned, I wonder how the loss of Christensen will affect this team
Nelson - 10 - 10:39
Bushlack - 12 - 4:53 / 10:50

East Ridge (had no seniors last year)
Schultz - 12 - 4:22
Paine - 10 - 4:42 (no XC results. So not sure if he will be doing it)
Devine - 11 - 4:42
Mestery - 12 - 4:44
McNiesh - 12 - 4:45 (also has a 2022 grad brother who was a standout on the team)
Soenen - 12 - 4:54 (17:11 at XC sections)
Gramer- 11 - 5:01
Schultz, Devine, and Mestery all qualified for state individually.

White Bear Lake (graduated their 4th, 6th, and 7th from XC sections)
Williams - 12 - 4:27
Larson - 11 - 4:37
Kolstad - 11 - 9:59
Popp - 10 - 4:53
Greene - 11 - 4:57
Murphy - 12 - 2:02 800
Rubio - 12 - 17:25 at xc sections
Williams, Larson, and Kolstad all qualified for state individually

Is L Drevelow planning to run XC? He had no track results last spring

Yes he is, as far as I know.

He also spends a lot of time mountain biking. Will be interesting to see how his XC season goes.

Yeah they could have had a solid fab-4 (Provenzano, Hering, Drevlow, Morse) and they probably would have made it to state with a better 5th runner than Southwest

I’m sure Minnehaha is excited that they got a transfer like him

Morse to Minnehaha isn't much of a surprise given the family ties to the school. Hopkins should still have a solid team in the future, it's a great program!

Nice tempo for Breker.

Yeah Hopkins has a lot of young talent stepping up.

Also they still got 2 really good incoming freshmen.

L Drevlow and C Hering

And nice time by Haag who will help add depth to Wayzata’s varsity

Finally, the extra depth that Wayzata has needed! 😭😂

Last year one of their scorers got injured before sections so he didn’t race at sections and wasn’t racing his best at state / NXR/ NXN, and wasn’t scoring in those races

This is why it’s helpful to have a 6th or 7th runner close to their top 5, so that they have someone to back them up.
They were lucky that they were 6-deep.