MN Cross Country Predictions 2023

It does seem to me that Tonka and Mounds View will be very even next year.

We might see some sophomores that didn’t make varsity for Tonka score for them next year. Because they were on varsity at the beginning of the season. The Fries brothers could be challenging for top 10 spots. For the last few years there’s always been a sophomore in the top 10. Younger Fries could be the next.

Southwest could challenge for the podium as long as they find a fifth man

Hootie Hage could challenge for top 3. He finished as the the #1 non senior in 2020. He got top 10 last year.

I think McCollor and Weber will be interchangeable and finish right where Hamza finished

Yes I agree but. Big fries will have to work in summer and put some effort good effort in xc to be top 5 on the Minnetonkas 2023 team. It’s very obtainable, but giving to many predictions now is kinda ridiculous. Comparing mounds view to Minnetonka prediction times it is close.
*prediction for 2023 season*
Minnetonka
1. Sean Fries SO, 15:30
2. Tyler Voss SR, 15:50
3. James Thomas JR, 16:00s
4. Loyd Laninga JR, 16:15
5. Parker Barry SR. around 16:20s
Mounds View
1 Owen Kalmes JR, 15:20s
2 Levi Hammerbeck SR, 15:40
3 Otto Coleman SR, 15:50s
4 Cayden Stoner SR. 15:50s
5 August Arnold SR. 16:00s
This is a really rough prediction not taking into consideration the course differences. Anyway for me it’s close 🤷🏼‍♂️ but put healthy big fires in there and he’s sub 16 for sure

Next year, Minnetonka, Jefferson, Edina, and maybe Eden Prairie and Mounds View are all looking to be very good and 7-deep. Something that not many top teams were this year.

If Southwest gets top 2, it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

They return a solid fab 4 in Scott, Batalden, Meyer and Ueland.

Their 5th and 6th nonseniors ran in the low 18s at NXR but Meyer went from low 18s last year to a sub-16 this year. So if someone else makes a big jump like this they will be a powerhouse

They also have a freshman who appears to be new to the sport who ran a 18:48 at Heartland which isn’t bad at all especially for a freshman

For Mounds View, I can see Geer and maybe Joseph Cole get close to their 5th. Geer was close to Arnold at conference.
Cole was always their 7th nonsenior this year. But either way we aren’t sure who their 7th man will be. Whether Cole or someone else. At Mounds View, there always seems to be someone that breaks out.

Downin is another Minnetonka soph that could score next year. He went sub-10 in the 3200 at Hoka. He was #6 for them at the Heartland. Chose and Horvick weren’t far behind in times so they will have darkhorse potential. Downin was also sometimes their 7th man as a freshman.

But I agree, but making predictions like this and these times are kind of ridiculous. Like at Mounds View, people in Minnetonka happen to come out of nowhere. Who would have predicted the younger Vos go 16:26 this year based on his times from XC and track the first 2 years? The only thing that makes this less surprising is that he has an older brother who was really good last year

Robert Mechura ran the fastest Heartland time of all these guys even though he was in the open race.
I wonder if he would have run slower or even faster than he did if he ran in the championship race.

Maybe during the open races the course was more fresh because the championships race were the last races of the day. Maybe running solo helped him because it was less crowded.

I still think Sam Scott will win because he will be a senior and at the beginning of last year he looked like he was on the road to a 3-peat at state. And he won Griak in 2021

I think it will be:

1. Sam Scott

2. Robert Mechura

3. Nolan Sutter

4. Hootie Hage

5. Daniel McCollor

6. Will Weber

5/6 are interchangeable but I will give 5th to McCollor since he will be a senior

The fact that Tonka finished 4th at NXR, and Mounds View didn’t get top 10 gives more reason to have Tonka at second
Southwest needs a fifth to podium but there a couple of guys on that team that can step up during track and pull that off.

Robert mechura valid

Apparently he is a stud at skiing as well

2023 State Meet not at Olaf...confirmed! Best guesses for new venue?

Source?

None of this is important.

Per email from CC Advisory Board. St. Olaf didn't renew their contract to host any longer.

Ouch. I don’t want that to be true. The course at St. Olaf has been great, for both the athletes and spectators. The wide, straight start gives runners room to jockey for position before the first curve. The adjacent field house is great as a shelter against the weather in MN Novembers. The large cafeteria in Buntrock is a great place for real food. Parking has always been something of a challenge for the number of attendees, but it’s at least workable. And the 3,000 seat gym is nice for the awards ceremonies.

I’m trying (and failing) to think of another MN course with anything close to those amenities.

I know many coaches that wanted it moved to a different site due to the parking and the inability to access all areas of the course. Would cross-town Carleton be interested? Parking would be an issue, but they have the fieldhouse close to the course too. The Griak course could handle the races, but lacks the amenities and parking is always a nightmare. Maybe Highland Park?

Check out where it was held before

Agreed that Carleton could be an option. Great course that has hosted some larger college races, but parking would be bigger issue once again. Also like the Highland idea mentioned. I think it is large enough to host and has the high school close by.

Hard to imagine any venue that matches what Olaf offers. Would not be surprised if it was temporarily hosted somewhere for this year only until a permanent location is figured out for 2024 and beyond.

Boys AAA state team qualifier predictions
1AAA
1- Lakeville South- went to state and returns 2-6.
2- Lakeville North- dominated section last year. Loses its 1-5 but has a soph and 2 8th graders that are talented and can score next year. People take very big jumps from 8th to 9th grade.
Watchlist
Owatonna- returns everyone except #1 and 2. This varsity team also has 2 9th graders. Sophomores make big jumps from freshman year. There are some other 8th and 9th graders on JV that can help the team too. This team is looking to try to end the 11-year state meet drought.
Farmington. This team is losing only one senior, but it lacks depth behind their top 3 (all of whom are returning)

2AAA
1- Minnetonka. Very, very deep program. Looking to try to make the podium at the state meet this season. They are losing their 1&2 but there are many current sophomores not on varsity that are looking to help the team, and the older Fries should be up there with or ahead of his younger brother or better if healthy.
2- Edina. This team only loses their 4th and 5th runners from sections. Only missed out on state by 15 points.
Watchlist
Eden Prairie. After losing Ross, Holje, and Bakken, it will be hard to return to the state, but they also have Derouin who ran a 16:33 once last season but did not end up in the top 7. He should be able to help the team next year. This team should never be counted out

3AAA
1- Bloomington Jefferson. Qualified for state last year and losing only Lueth.
2- East Ridge. Placed third at sections and returns their entire team.
Watchlist
Rosemount. Will be hard to go back to state after only being 5-deep and losing 5 seniors. If Schultz is healthy and some other guys step up, they have a chance to return. They dominated the JV conference meet so lots of talent to pull from there

4AAA
1- Stillwater. Great program. Won sections last year and loses only 3 seniors
2- White Bear Lake. Failed to make state but they return 4 of their top 5. Great program as well.

5AAA
1- Mounds View. Loses McArthur but returns the majority of the team. Great program that has lots of people stepping up
2- Osseo. Was in third place at sections, but loses only 1 senior. Team will be lead by Sanvik

6AAA
1- Wayzata. Clear favorite. Returns everyone but Hamza
2- Minneapolis Southwest. Loses only two guys. Team needs a better fifth runner for them to do well at state
Watchlist:
Hopkins. Returns 2-6 + younger Drevlow who is a stud but did not race sections. There are lots of people in grades 8-10 that can step up
Washburn. Qualified for state last year and returns most of their squad, but it will be tough without Jones, Haugland and Tromiczak.

7AAA
1- Andover. Barely missed out on state berth and senior win. But they return their 1-5 including stud Gomes
2- Blaine. Made state already and only loses their #2 and #7
Watchlist:
Duluth East. Missed state by only 15 points and returns 3rd - 6th guys.

8AAA
1- Moorhead. Only loses their #5. Was a close to making state last year
2- STMA. Barely missed out on state but loses their #2
Watchlist
Buffalo. Only loses two seniors and won their section. This team always seems to reload

Boys AAA section winner predictions

1AAA: Ryan Gwaltney. Was the top nonsenior at sections last year. Next season will be his last chance to win.
Watchlist:
Aiden Jakubic. Shined his first year of XC, so we can expect him to make a big jump
Chase Altergott. With Casey gone, Altergott will look to be a new leader for Lakeville North.

2AAA: Nolan Sutter. Got fifth at state last year. Gilles is graduating
Watchlist:
Hootie Hage. Was #1 in his class until last season. Also finished very high at 2021 NXR. Has another year to bounce back.

3AAA: Andrew Schultz. Should be able to win if healthy after getting second
Watchlist
Nate Shultz. Looking to try to help East Ridge go to state for the first time in many years.
Zach Tapajna. Looking to try to be the new #1 on Jefferson after Lueth is gone.
Ian Klein. Could challenge for the #1 spot on the Jefferson team.

4AAA: Luke Williams. Should be able to go back to back
Watchlist
Dylan Riniker. This key Stillwater runner made a big jump from freshman to sophomore year. Another big jump and he can take the crown.

5AAA: Robert Mechura. Based on his NXR Open race time, he would have almost made NXN. Should have a great junior season
Watchlist
Cade Sanvik. Almost beat Mechura at sections

6AAA: Sam Scott. Favorite to win state. Could possibly run in the 14’s.

7AAA: River Santiago. Should be able to go back to back
Watchlist
Aidan Gomes. Almost won section

8AAA: Austin Liebl. Should win after getting second in 2022.
Watchlist
Will Termont. Continues to make big jumps