This discussion has been hijacked in so many threads, so, why not create a separate thread on this?They have L/L/Doshi/Seymour/2 Aarons locked as their top 6.If anyone is interested in this discussion, any predictions on who...
Was D4 running the same course as everyone else? If so, Holman just crushed it today. I realize top teams and top individuals weren't going all out, but there was enough good runners who had to run hard for qualifying reasons more than a minute back of him to see that was a real solid run.
And Anthony Fasthorse is back. This is the first race that their top 5 has been healthy. This gives them an outside shot to break into the top 4 at state. Yes, still unlikely because the top 4 look pretty locked in, and Crescenta Valley is in their range as well, but not everything goes as expected on race day, so don't rule them out.
Yes. It’s a two lap 3M course that has some rolling but nothing compared to the normal course. Some went for it but most contenders did it as some type of workout.
And Anthony Fasthorse is back. This is the first race that their top 5 has been healthy. This gives them an outside shot to break into the top 4 at state. Yes, still unlikely because the top 4 look pretty locked in, and Crescenta Valley is in their range as well, but not everything goes as expected on race day, so don't rule them out.
I looked at the numbers, and actually Ventura being top 4 is a little more likely than I thought. Fasthorse and Hammel were missing from Clovis, and if Fasthorse was 6 seconds behind their #1 as he has been the last 2 meets, and Hammel ran the exact same time as DeGeorge, like he did at Woodbridge and league finals, then Ventura would have beat both Granada and Great Oak at Clovis. Yes, Great Oak was missing some runners as well there, so I wouldn't say Ventura is actually better than those teams, but now I think they are almost equal. Granada and Ventura ran 3200m time trials in late Oct, and if Hammel had tied with DeGeorge (which would be slower than his PR last year), then the top 5 of each team would have been almost identical, with a very tiny edge to Granada.
In Div 1, Mitchell and Short seem to have closed what looked like a big gap last year on Caudillo, with Mitchell the one I would give an outside shot of an upset at state. But Caudillo rarely loses races he should win, so I would not bet against him. Chu has also made a big jump to the top ranks.
Oakdale looks primed to win the Div 3 state team title. They probably won't quite make it to NXN. Any idea if they plan to go to RunningLane as a team?
Agree the SJS preview was good. Unfortunate that it completely left off D4 and D5 where there is some of the best individual talent on the boys side in the section. The kid from Sonora in D4 had the overall fastest time at sub-sections. Also St. Mary’s boy in D4 has had a breakthrough senior season and couple standouts in D5 too. I think three of the of them between 4 and 5 had the top 6 times at subs.
Personally I think Ventura has the best chance at success here, a team of all fast juniors, if they can close the 4-5 gap and get progressively faster, they'll be dangerous as seniors.