Does this mean that someone else is the boss in the marathon, each year untill Kipchoge has ran his first race? Sorry I feel this is a bit disrespectful, again. Jakob doesn't have to constantly prove himself. He has the PR's and the hardware so he don't need that.
However, using your logic of "what have you done lately", If we look at accomplishments rather than strict time, Grant haven't done a thing in 2022 btw.
What a ridiculous take. Jakob should race at some meet (that I've never heard of that's thousands of miles away with no other reason to go there; I'm American and have been to 50+ countries including Norway but sorry the PNW has never been on my travel list) to "mix it up" with athletes a caliber below him a week before World Indoors?
Jakob is in the very top echelon of distance runners with Cheptegei/Cheruiyot/Kipchoge. Fisher and Ahmed are at or at least knocking on the door of "medalist contenders" (but behind the Kerr/Tefera level) which is commendable but you seem to be confused in thinking that the reigning Olympic champion gets the same benefit racing inferior athletes at a horrible location (requiring a full day each way of travel with no direct flights) a week before World Indoors that guys like Fisher and Ahmed would get to key off of one of the best runners in the world as the outdoor season ramps up at a meet very close to them. I'm a pretty good chess player but I don't expect Magnus Carlsen to check my calendar for the next local tournament I'm playing in. But if I see he's hosting all-comers at a bar an hour away I will be in the next Uber there.
Fisher and Ahmed are a level behind Kerr and Tefera???? You realize Ahmed as an Olympic Bronze and a WC bronze? And Fisher has crushed him in their 5k and 10k races this year, after being 5th in the Olympics last year? What are you on? If you're gonna put a bronze medallist with someone who's won 2 indoor golds, why wouldn't you put the guy who's gotten silver and bronze up there, plus the guy who's beaten him every time they've raced this year?
At this point, Fisher and Ahmed are medal favorites. That's a level behind gold favorites, but just barely. Hell, I think it's more likely that Fisher and Ahmed win medals than Kerr, no disrespect to him. The only way they're not in the top echelon if runners is that no one's expecting them to get a WR/gold this year, but I don't think anyone's expecting that out of Tefera or Kerr. Jakob racing a 5k against Fisher and Ahmed is the same level as racing Kerr/Tefera. Jakob is the favorite, but any of them could pull an upset.
Good post, I agree for everything except the last part. I think Jakob is more likely to lose a race to kerr or tefera than he is to fisher or ahmed. There are 2 reasons :
- his 1500m speed makes him untouchable for them in the last meters in a championship style 5000m (just like when he easily dropped everyone in the homestretch in Florence last year) and it’s unlikely they are going to drop him before the last lap. Jakob doesn’t have that advantage over someone like kerr or tefera at 1500m and therefore can realistically get outkicked.
- Like Jakob said it in 2018 : at 5000m the better runner usually wins, upsets can still happen but it’s less likely to happen at 5000m than 1500m.
I assume US soil 5000m record is Grant Fisher's 12:53 indoors earlier this year. Surely Jakob saw that and Grant's 26:33 and wants to show Americans who's boss.
What a ridiculous take. Jakob should race at some meet (that I've never heard of that's thousands of miles away with no other reason to go there; I'm American and have been to 50+ countries including Norway but sorry the PNW has never been on my travel list) to "mix it up" with athletes a caliber below him a week before World Indoors?
Jakob is in the very top echelon of distance runners with Cheptegei/Cheruiyot/Kipchoge. Fisher and Ahmed are at or at least knocking on the door of "medalist contenders" (but behind the Kerr/Tefera level) which is commendable but you seem to be confused in thinking that the reigning Olympic champion gets the same benefit racing inferior athletes at a horrible location (requiring a full day each way of travel with no direct flights) a week before World Indoors that guys like Fisher and Ahmed would get to key off of one of the best runners in the world as the outdoor season ramps up at a meet very close to them. I'm a pretty good chess player but I don't expect Magnus Carlsen to check my calendar for the next local tournament I'm playing in. But if I see he's hosting all-comers at a bar an hour away I will be in the next Uber there.
Fisher and Ahmed are a level behind Kerr and Tefera???? You realize Ahmed as an Olympic Bronze and a WC bronze? And Fisher has crushed him in their 5k and 10k races this year, after being 5th in the Olympics last year? What are you on? If you're gonna put a bronze medallist with someone who's won 2 indoor golds, why wouldn't you put the guy who's gotten silver and bronze up there, plus the guy who's beaten him every time they've raced this year?
At this point, Fisher and Ahmed are medal favorites. That's a level behind gold favorites, but just barely. Hell, I think it's more likely that Fisher and Ahmed win medals than Kerr, no disrespect to him. The only way they're not in the top echelon if runners is that no one's expecting them to get a WR/gold this year, but I don't think anyone's expecting that out of Tefera or Kerr. Jakob racing a 5k against Fisher and Ahmed is the same level as racing Kerr/Tefera. Jakob is the favorite, but any of them could pull an upset.
You're right on Ahmed, and I think Tefera has underperformed his ability in outdoor. I do feel that global championship 5k/10k races are a bit watered down because of the athlete limit (and due to schedule conflicts with 1500m) but that's not Ahmed's fault. I think if everyone is on their game, Cheptegei/Jakob/Barega/Kejelcha would beat Ahmed (and others like Kiplimo/Katir and now maybe Fisher are around his level). I think Kerr with his 2021 season and 3:48 indoor mile this year is solidly in the top 5 in his event whereas I can't see that argument for Fisher based on his performances against top competition. I know he has run super fast this year so maybe that will change.
Ahmed has the hardware and has run very fast, so I will concede that, but I don't view Fisher on Kerr's level. If you say both Ahmed and Fisher are medal favorites, that only leaves one left for Cheptegei/Jakob/Barega/Kejelcha/Katir/Kiplimo/others assuming they all run the 5k, which is kind of ridiculous.
One other thing you wrote: "Jakob racing a 5k against Fisher and Ahmed is the same level as racing Kerr/Tefera. Jakob is the favorite, but any of them could pull an upset."
Jakob, at least at this point in his career, is a 1500m specialist and even you admit he's a favorite against Fisher/Ahmed in the 5k. I don't think there are any 5k specialists I would put ahead of Kerr in the 1500m.
And Tefera did just beat Jakob for gold (who had recently broken Tefera's Indoor WR), I know there's the covid thing but he is super talented despite his erratic results and it wouldn't surprise me if either Kerr or Tefera beats Jakob in outdoors since 1500m results can be unpredictable sometimes.
Jakob should race at some meet (that I've never heard of that's thousands of miles away with no other reason to go there; I'm American and have been to 50+ countries including Norway but sorry the PNW has never been on my travel list) to "mix it up" with athletes a caliber below him a week before World Indoors?
Jakob is training in Flagstaff, and the only reason he would be racing there was to find some race with "not terrible quality" without having to travel too far for the race.
What a ridiculous take. Jakob should race at some meet (that I've never heard of that's thousands of miles away with no other reason to go there; I'm American and have been to 50+ countries including Norway but sorry the PNW has never been on my travel list) to "mix it up" with athletes a caliber below him a week before World Indoors?
Jakob is in the very top echelon of distance runners with Cheptegei/Cheruiyot/Kipchoge. Fisher and Ahmed are at or at least knocking on the door of "medalist contenders" (but behind the Kerr/Tefera level) which is commendable but you seem to be confused in thinking that the reigning Olympic champion gets the same benefit racing inferior athletes at a horrible location (requiring a full day each way of travel with no direct flights) a week before World Indoors that guys like Fisher and Ahmed would get to key off of one of the best runners in the world as the outdoor season ramps up at a meet very close to them. I'm a pretty good chess player but I don't expect Magnus Carlsen to check my calendar for the next local tournament I'm playing in. But if I see he's hosting all-comers at a bar an hour away I will be in the next Uber there.
Fisher and Ahmed are a level behind Kerr and Tefera???? You realize Ahmed as an Olympic Bronze and a WC bronze? And Fisher has crushed him in their 5k and 10k races this year, after being 5th in the Olympics last year? What are you on? If you're gonna put a bronze medallist with someone who's won 2 indoor golds, why wouldn't you put the guy who's gotten silver and bronze up there, plus the guy who's beaten him every time they've raced this year?
At this point, Fisher and Ahmed are medal favorites. That's a level behind gold favorites, but just barely. Hell, I think it's more likely that Fisher and Ahmed win medals than Kerr, no disrespect to him. The only way they're not in the top echelon if runners is that no one's expecting them to get a WR/gold this year, but I don't think anyone's expecting that out of Tefera or Kerr. Jakob racing a 5k against Fisher and Ahmed is the same level as racing Kerr/Tefera. Jakob is the favorite, but any of them could pull an upset.
Fisher is a medal favorite? I can't go that far. He's a contender, for sure, but he's also the guy without even a US title to his name. Who has he beaten in a real race? He even lost to Woody Kincaid in the trials lady year. Right now, he still has a lot to prove as a pro - he's a good time trialler, but can he get in the top 3 in real races? 5th at the Olympics was creditable, but he had nothing when the big guns kicked for home in that 10k
Jakob, at least at this point in his career, is a 1500m specialist and even you admit he's a favorite against Fisher/Ahmed in the 5k. I don't think there are any 5k specialists I would put ahead of Kerr in the 1500m.
And Tefera did just beat Jakob for gold (who had recently broken Tefera's Indoor WR), I know there's the covid thing but he is super talented despite his erratic results and it wouldn't surprise me if either Kerr or Tefera beats Jakob in outdoors since 1500m results can be unpredictable sometimes.
3 vaguely related thoughts.
1) You don't win u20 world bronze in the and European senior champs, both in the 5000, aged 17, if you're a 1500 "specialist." In Florence, Jakob beat Hagos, Ahmed, Cheptegei, Katir, and Edris, running 12:48. He's perhaps better in the 1500, but not by much. All evidence from last year points to him probably winning the 5000 if he had chosen to do just the 5 instead of the 15. Jakob is very much a 1500/5000 guy had much as someone like Barega or Cheptegei are 5000/10000 guys.
2) I'll call it now. Tefera won't medal in Eugene. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he never wins an outdoor medal. Since 2017 he has had season bests of 3:33, 3:31.6, 3:31.4, and 3:30.7, and yet has never made an outdoor final, and twice not made it out of the heats. His best Diamond League final placing is 8th. He isn't erratic: for 5 years straight he has been irrelevant outdoors.
3) I still think Ahmed isnt maybe under appreciated (rather than being overrated). 12:47, 26:34 are crazy times. Dont "super shoe me" - top guys have had those spikes since 2019 and in that time period he's #2 in the 5000 and #4 in the 10,000. Made his first Olympic team while still in college, and since Rio his 5000 global champs record is: 4th, 6th, 6th, 3rd, 2nd. He is the only guy to place top 6 in all those races. Sure not everyone does every race, but he shows up and is always competitive. To get those places he still had to beat guys like Kiplimo, Ingebrigtsen, Cheptegei, Chelimo, Lagat, all at least once. Is he the best? Nah, but he's one of the most consistently performers out there.
Jakob, at least at this point in his career, is a 1500m specialist and even you admit he's a favorite against Fisher/Ahmed in the 5k. I don't think there are any 5k specialists I would put ahead of Kerr in the 1500m.
And Tefera did just beat Jakob for gold (who had recently broken Tefera's Indoor WR), I know there's the covid thing but he is super talented despite his erratic results and it wouldn't surprise me if either Kerr or Tefera beats Jakob in outdoors since 1500m results can be unpredictable sometimes.
3 vaguely related thoughts.
1) You don't win u20 world bronze in the and European senior champs, both in the 5000, aged 17, if you're a 1500 "specialist." In Florence, Jakob beat Hagos, Ahmed, Cheptegei, Katir, and Edris, running 12:48. He's perhaps better in the 1500, but not by much. All evidence from last year points to him probably winning the 5000 if he had chosen to do just the 5 instead of the 15. Jakob is very much a 1500/5000 guy had much as someone like Barega or Cheptegei are 5000/10000 guys.
2) I'll call it now. Tefera won't medal in Eugene. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he never wins an outdoor medal. Since 2017 he has had season bests of 3:33, 3:31.6, 3:31.4, and 3:30.7, and yet has never made an outdoor final, and twice not made it out of the heats. His best Diamond League final placing is 8th. He isn't erratic: for 5 years straight he has been irrelevant outdoors.
3) I still think Ahmed isnt maybe under appreciated (rather than being overrated). 12:47, 26:34 are crazy times. Dont "super shoe me" - top guys have had those spikes since 2019 and in that time period he's #2 in the 5000 and #4 in the 10,000. Made his first Olympic team while still in college, and since Rio his 5000 global champs record is: 4th, 6th, 6th, 3rd, 2nd. He is the only guy to place top 6 in all those races. Sure not everyone does every race, but he shows up and is always competitive. To get those places he still had to beat guys like Kiplimo, Ingebrigtsen, Cheptegei, Chelimo, Lagat, all at least once. Is he the best? Nah, but he's one of the most consistently performers out there.
1. Ingebrigtsen is a 1500m specialist because the 15 is his primary event. Perhaps he is equally good over 3k and 5k, but that doesn’t preclude him from being a 15 specialist. Most top athletes are very competitive in races above and/or below their primary distance.
2. Betting against Tefera is pretty safe given his track record outdoors. His success thus far has been mostly relegated to the indoor season, but hopefully that will change this year. I’d love to see him with the top dogs in Eugene.
3. I don’t know that I’d call Ahmed underrated. You seem to be taking issue with his comparison to Kerr and Tefera, but I think the point was that Kerr and Tefera have more chance of beating Ingebrigtsen over 15 than Ahmed does of beating him over 5k. Perhaps Tefera doesn’t belong there (he’s only beat Ingebrigtsen once and it took covid for it to happen), but I definitely agree with the statement otherwise.
1. Ingebrigtsen is a 1500m specialist because the 15 is his primary event. Perhaps he is equally good over 3k and 5k, but that doesn’t preclude him from being a 15 specialist. Most top athletes are very competitive in races above and/or below their primary distance.
2. Betting against Tefera is pretty safe given his track record outdoors. His success thus far has been mostly relegated to the indoor season, but hopefully that will change this year. I’d love to see him with the top dogs in Eugene.
3. I don’t know that I’d call Ahmed underrated. You seem to be taking issue with his comparison to Kerr and Tefera, but I think the point was that Kerr and Tefera have more chance of beating Ingebrigtsen over 15 than Ahmed does of beating him over 5k. Perhaps Tefera doesn’t belong there (he’s only beat Ingebrigtsen once and it took covid for it to happen), but I definitely agree with the statement otherwise.
I think we might just be working with different definitions of specialist. I think being an event "specialist" is different to just one discipline being your main event. For me a specialist is someone who is disproportionately better at one event than any other event. Eg Josh Kerr, whose IAAF score for his 1500m is nearly 100pts better than any other event. Where he's a medalist in the 1500, but would struggle to make a final in another event. Or Justyn Knight, who is a good miler, but his12:51 is much more impressive than his 3:33.4 and he doesn't do the 10,000. They're "specialized" to that event. Anyway, not too important a distinction.
Agreed on point 2.
With Ahmed, I had a bit of a typo. I meant to say he might be underappreciated though maybe not underrated if that makes sense. Less a response to Kerr/Tefera comparisons and more how he is generally discussed. Since you mention it though, I would point out that it's strange to say Kerr has a better shot, given Ahmed is 1-1 head to head over the 5000 to Jakob (getting 3rd to Jakob's 4th in Doha) while Kerr is 0-5 over the 1500 to him, dating back to 15 year old Jakob beating 19 year old Kerr at U20 world champs in 2016.
1) You don't win u20 world bronze in the and European senior champs, both in the 5000, aged 17, if you're a 1500 "specialist." In Florence, Jakob beat Hagos, Ahmed, Cheptegei, Katir, and Edris, running 12:48. He's perhaps better in the 1500, but not by much. All evidence from last year points to him probably winning the 5000 if he had chosen to do just the 5 instead of the 15. Jakob is very much a 1500/5000 guy had much as someone like Barega or Cheptegei are 5000/10000 guys.
2) I'll call it now. Tefera won't medal in Eugene. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he never wins an outdoor medal. Since 2017 he has had season bests of 3:33, 3:31.6, 3:31.4, and 3:30.7, and yet has never made an outdoor final, and twice not made it out of the heats. His best Diamond League final placing is 8th. He isn't erratic: for 5 years straight he has been irrelevant outdoors.
3) I still think Ahmed isnt maybe under appreciated (rather than being overrated). 12:47, 26:34 are crazy times. Dont "super shoe me" - top guys have had those spikes since 2019 and in that time period he's #2 in the 5000 and #4 in the 10,000. Made his first Olympic team while still in college, and since Rio his 5000 global champs record is: 4th, 6th, 6th, 3rd, 2nd. He is the only guy to place top 6 in all those races. Sure not everyone does every race, but he shows up and is always competitive. To get those places he still had to beat guys like Kiplimo, Ingebrigtsen, Cheptegei, Chelimo, Lagat, all at least once. Is he the best? Nah, but he's one of the most consistently performers out there.
On 1), Jakob is definitely not a specialist. He is a 1,500/5,000 runner — he literally ran both in 2019 and fared pretty much the same. The 1,500 has tended to be a tad weaker, and he's more experienced at it at the highest levels so it makes sense to run it first if there's a scheduling issue. I expect he'll double this year. I will quibble with him being the 5,000m winner last year, though. Cheptegei ran a phenomenal race and won by a lot in a 12:58 with a fast close. Who knows if Jakob can match that. The field was quite watered down, so yes Silver seems like it would've been likely.
2) Yes, there is something weird with Tefera and outdoors. It's not just tactical racing because he's looked very sharp this past indoor season and in other ones kicking at the right time. We'll see how this season goes because while navigating the rounds is tough, he's underperformed his fitness specifically outdoors.
3) Ahmed is really good, but he has benefited from how Ethiopia has deployed their guys. He's capitalized on some of the watered-down fields, but this year could be a greater challenge if Barega, Jakob, Girma, Wale, Aregawi show up in the 5,000. I don't like his chances (as usual) to medal in the 10,000.
1. Ingebrigtsen is a 1500m specialist because the 15 is his primary event. Perhaps he is equally good over 3k and 5k, but that doesn’t preclude him from being a 15 specialist. Most top athletes are very competitive in races above and/or below their primary distance.
2. Betting against Tefera is pretty safe given his track record outdoors. His success thus far has been mostly relegated to the indoor season, but hopefully that will change this year. I’d love to see him with the top dogs in Eugene.
3. I don’t know that I’d call Ahmed underrated. You seem to be taking issue with his comparison to Kerr and Tefera, but I think the point was that Kerr and Tefera have more chance of beating Ingebrigtsen over 15 than Ahmed does of beating him over 5k. Perhaps Tefera doesn’t belong there (he’s only beat Ingebrigtsen once and it took covid for it to happen), but I definitely agree with the statement otherwise.
I would point out that it's strange to say Kerr has a better shot, given Ahmed is 1-1 head to head over the 5000 to Jakob (getting 3rd to Jakob's 4th in Doha) while Kerr is 0-5 over the 1500 to
You're really gonna use 30 years old Ahmed beating highschool Jakob as an argument ? Because current Kerr would also easily beat highschool Jakob at 1500m (even Lewandowski regularly beat him that year and he's for sure not as good as current Kerr who almost outkicked Cheruyiot)
1) You don't win u20 world bronze in the and European senior champs, both in the 5000, aged 17, if you're a 1500 "specialist." In Florence, Jakob beat Hagos, Ahmed, Cheptegei, Katir, and Edris, running 12:48. He's perhaps better in the 1500, but not by much. All evidence from last year points to him probably winning the 5000 if he had chosen to do just the 5 instead of the 15. Jakob is very much a 1500/5000 guy had much as someone like Barega or Cheptegei are 5000/10000 guys.
2) I'll call it now. Tefera won't medal in Eugene. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he never wins an outdoor medal. Since 2017 he has had season bests of 3:33, 3:31.6, 3:31.4, and 3:30.7, and yet has never made an outdoor final, and twice not made it out of the heats. His best Diamond League final placing is 8th. He isn't erratic: for 5 years straight he has been irrelevant outdoors.
3) I still think Ahmed isnt maybe under appreciated (rather than being overrated). 12:47, 26:34 are crazy times. Dont "super shoe me" - top guys have had those spikes since 2019 and in that time period he's #2 in the 5000 and #4 in the 10,000. Made his first Olympic team while still in college, and since Rio his 5000 global champs record is: 4th, 6th, 6th, 3rd, 2nd. He is the only guy to place top 6 in all those races. Sure not everyone does every race, but he shows up and is always competitive. To get those places he still had to beat guys like Kiplimo, Ingebrigtsen, Cheptegei, Chelimo, Lagat, all at least once. Is he the best? Nah, but he's one of the most consistently performers out there.
On 1), Jakob is definitely not a specialist. He is a 1,500/5,000 runner — he literally ran both in 2019 and fared pretty much the same. The 1,500 has tended to be a tad weaker, and he's more experienced at it at the highest levels so it makes sense to run it first if there's a scheduling issue. I expect he'll double this year. I will quibble with him being the 5,000m winner last year, though. Cheptegei ran a phenomenal race and won by a lot in a 12:58 with a fast close. Who knows if Jakob can match that. The field was quite watered down, so yes Silver seems like it would've been likely.
2) Yes, there is something weird with Tefera and outdoors. It's not just tactical racing because he's looked very sharp this past indoor season and in other ones kicking at the right time. We'll see how this season goes because while navigating the rounds is tough, he's underperformed his fitness specifically outdoors.
3) Ahmed is really good, but he has benefited from how Ethiopia has deployed their guys. He's capitalized on some of the watered-down fields, but this year could be a greater challenge if Barega, Jakob, Girma, Wale, Aregawi show up in the 5,000. I don't like his chances (as usual) to medal in the 10,000.
This specialist talk is so unbelievably dumb. El Guerrouj is the greatest 1500 runner of all time and only ran the 5000 a few times in his career, but don’t call him a 1500 specialist! He doubled in Athens and also ran the 5k one time when he was like 18 so he is a 1500/5000 runner.
Funny that in your list of Ethiopians who will challenge Ahmed in the 5000, you somehow managed to omit the only one who actually beat him last year.
This specialist talk is so unbelievably dumb. El Guerrouj is the greatest 1500 runner of all time and only ran the 5000 a few times in his career, but don’t call him a 1500 specialist! He doubled in Athens and also ran the 5k one time when he was like 18 so he is a 1500/5000 runner.
Funny that in your list of Ethiopians who will challenge Ahmed in the 5000, you somehow managed to omit the only one who actually beat him last year.
He got silver in the 5k, he lost to none of them…In the 10,000, he lost to Barega and Aregawi. Apologies for not mentioning Barega twice, but yeah I think it’s pretty clear you’d favor about 5-6 Ethiopians over him. They get 4 in the 5,000 (granted Eddie is not in shape yet) and if they let guys double Barega should be selected. Their strongest team imo:
This specialist talk is so unbelievably dumb. El Guerrouj is the greatest 1500 runner of all time and only ran the 5000 a few times in his career, but don’t call him a 1500 specialist! He doubled in Athens and also ran the 5k one time when he was like 18 so he is a 1500/5000 runner.
Funny that in your list of Ethiopians who will challenge Ahmed in the 5000, you somehow managed to omit the only one who actually beat him last year.
He got silver in the 5k, he lost to none of them…In the 10,000, he lost to Barega and Aregawi. Apologies for not mentioning Barega twice, but yeah I think it’s pretty clear you’d favor about 5-6 Ethiopians over him. They get 4 in the 5,000 (granted Eddie is not in shape yet) and if they let guys double Barega should be selected. Their strongest team imo:
Steeple: Girma, Wale
5,000: Barega, Edris, Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha
10,000: Barega, Aregawi, Worku
I don’t expect Barega to be mentioned twice but you can’t omit Gebrhiwet like that. He beat Ahmed easily in Florence just a couple days after running sub 27 at the trials.
I actually agree with your selections for the most part but there’s no way they let Barega double. Why send a proven champion when they can just pick a random kid with no credentials who runs 12:50 at the trials?