Please name these countries that have 15 people as good as the Olympic 5th place finisher and 12:53/26:33 guy. They must not have internet or something, or this place does not exist.
Agreed. Ethiopia is the deepest country in the world at 5-10,000.
Grant Fisher is in amazing shape.....but there is NO WAY he beats Hocker over 3k right now. In fact, if Hocker ever decides to focus on the 5k for a season, I have no doubt that Hocker would beat Fisher in the 5k.
Hocker ran 13:18 after 2 hard 1500s at NCAA's (battling Nuguse to the line). That was just off of 1500m training. If Hocker raced it fresh, he could have been 13:05-13:10. Don't forget that Hocker is almost 5 full seconds faster than Fisher in the 1500.
That's a bit disrespectful. Hocker is a true kicker. There is no way Hocker has the strength to run with Fisher in a fast 3k or 5k. Hell, Hocker lost to Teare in a fast MILE.
I think Teare and Beamish both have a good chance at beating Fisher in a 3k as well. Fisher's 10 "strength" won't help at all in a 3k. Fisher's outdoor 1500m PR is 3:36.2 - that twice in a row is 7:12.5 for 3k. The top guys are running 7:25 indoors (which is a lot harder than 7:25 outdoors)
Hocker has run 3:31 in the 1500. Hocker is a lot better at the 5k than Fisher is at the 1500. Fisher will be lactic a lot earlier in a fast 3k than Hocker.
If he did run world indoors, there's still a really good chance he doesn't medal. Placing 4th in an indoor 3k doesn't do him much good; There aren't really any incentives for him to do it. The 10k record, on the other hand, gets him a huge bonus from Nike, and is essentially guaranteed as long as he doesn't get injured. Plus, training for a 10k time trial in the spring gets him a WC qualifier, and sets him up really well to do great at WCs/potentially medal. Basically, there aren't many incentives to run world indoors, there are a ton to run a fast 10k.
Will he still be in monster shape after WCs? Yeah. But there's no guarantee that he'd get a good chance to run a fast 10k after WCs. Doing it in March ensured good conditions, and that BTC would have some say over how the meet went down (like being able to push it back a day, that wouldn't happen at any big meet after WCs).
Exactly this. When you're a pro runner, you want to maximize your paycheck. Grant talked about this on the LRC podcast, that he got the largest paycheck he had ever received from breaking the American record. I doubt even a bronze at world indoors would come close to that amount of money.
If we actually want athletes to take Indoor and Diamond league races seriously, then they need to be scheduled intelligently and they need to offer massive paychecks that incentivize athletes to run all of them. No pro tennis player would think of skipping a grand slam, since it would cost them so much money. The same should be true in track.
I dont understand why they should go out of their way to get certain athletes to compete when the worlds best already are competing.
In the recent LRC podcast Fisher pointed out that he likes hot weather and had no problem having the 10 held at 1 pm. He thinks his chances improve under adverse conditions rather than worsen. He’s confident in his speed and ability to kick off a slower and hotter pace than to keep up in a perfect conditions TT type race.
The indoor medals are all devalued by a lack of interest and participation. Fisher should do whatever he needs to do to be in perfect shape to run in July. Everything else is unimportant.
I don’t understand why people pretend American athletes are skipping indoors because it isn’t worth their time. Many of the fields are quite strong, and our athletes are going to have a hard enough time getting medals even in the more watered down events. Fisher is one of our best and he’d be lucky to get bronze in the 3k.
I think it would have been great for him to mix it up with some of the same guys he’ll be facing outdoors in the 5k and 10k. A time trial can be set up at any time so it’s baffling for BTC to prioritize a record attempt over a world championship.
100%. Far better athletes think indoor worlds are worthwhile.
Grant Fisher in the indoor 5000m right now would very likely medal and possibly win a gold medal. For a guy who has never won a global medal this seems like a strange choice to me.
Do you think Fisher is making a mistake by not striking while the iron is hot and racing indoors worlds this season?
First off, Grant would have to run the 3000 which favors mile types indoors. I would not say he has no chance at a medal outdoors, although it is probably less than 50 percent, but those are not bad odds when you think about it.
At the moment, there are basically 12 active runners from roughly five or six different countries with faster 5000m pr's than Grant Fisher, one of which he beat in the race, and there is just one active runner with a better 10000m pr.
Grant Fisher in the indoor 5000m right now would very likely medal and possibly win a gold medal. For a guy who has never won a global medal this seems like a strange choice to me.
Do you think Fisher is making a mistake by not striking while the iron is hot and racing indoors worlds this season?
First off, Grant would have to run the 3000 which favors mile types indoors. I would not say he has no chance at a medal outdoors, although it is probably less than 50 percent, but those are not bad odds when you think about it.
Granted, dark horse medal threats Beamish and Mechaal are the only miler types in the medal hunt. Barega and Aregawi are as much strength-based runners as Fisher. Girma seems to be more of a 3/5K guy. Fisher's best chance would seem to be at 10K, but how Ethiopian Trials shake out will be a big factor (last year 10k field was much stronger).
That's a bit disrespectful. Hocker is a true kicker. There is no way Hocker has the strength to run with Fisher in a fast 3k or 5k. Hell, Hocker lost to Teare in a fast MILE.
I think Teare and Beamish both have a good chance at beating Fisher in a 3k as well. Fisher's 10 "strength" won't help at all in a 3k. Fisher's outdoor 1500m PR is 3:36.2 - that twice in a row is 7:12.5 for 3k. The top guys are running 7:25 indoors (which is a lot harder than 7:25 outdoors)
Hocker has run 3:31 in the 1500. Hocker is a lot better at the 5k than Fisher is at the 1500. Fisher will be lactic a lot earlier in a fast 3k than Hocker.
Fisher's 1500 PR is from 2020. He's a completely different runner now. In 2020 his 5k PR was only 13:11.
I have no doubt that Fisher could run AT LEAST 3:34 at current fitness. Moh Ahmed ran 3:34 in 2020, and I think Fisher is fitter than 2020 Moh Ahmed, and probably has similar speed.
That's a bit disrespectful. Hocker is a true kicker. There is no way Hocker has the strength to run with Fisher in a fast 3k or 5k. Hell, Hocker lost to Teare in a fast MILE.
"Hocker is a true kicker" who got outkicked by his training partner and 5k specialist twice this year already.
He was outkicked in the 3k, yes. But he was not "outkicked" in the mile, which was a time trial where Teare led the last ~300m.
That's my point, Hocker has an unbeatable kick in a slower race, but is mortal off a hotter pace. There's no way Hocker wins a 5k against Fisher in anything under 13:10, or a 3k in anything under 7:35.
I think Teare and Beamish both have a good chance at beating Fisher in a 3k as well. Fisher's 10 "strength" won't help at all in a 3k. Fisher's outdoor 1500m PR is 3:36.2 - that twice in a row is 7:12.5 for 3k. The top guys are running 7:25 indoors (which is a lot harder than 7:25 outdoors)
Hocker has run 3:31 in the 1500. Hocker is a lot better at the 5k than Fisher is at the 1500. Fisher will be lactic a lot earlier in a fast 3k than Hocker.
Fisher's 1500 PR is from 2020. He's a completely different runner now. In 2020 his 5k PR was only 13:11.
I have no doubt that Fisher could run AT LEAST 3:34 at current fitness. Moh Ahmed ran 3:34 in 2020, and I think Fisher is fitter than 2020 Moh Ahmed, and probably has similar speed.
I still give the edge to Fisher in a fast 3k.
I don't think Grant is even close to 3:34. He's been doing primarily 10k training and his 800 best is a pathetic 1:51.86 (Hocker has run 1:46). Hocker ran 3:31 in the Olympic Final after 2 rounds of the 1500m - all in extreme heat. Hocker beat McSweyn who is a 3:29.5 runner and Hocker beat Wightman who is 3:29.4. CLEARLY Hocker was in 3:29 shape if it was a rabbited race at Monaco.
He was outkicked in the 3k, yes. But he was not "outkicked" in the mile, which was a time trial where Teare led the last ~300m.
That's my point, Hocker has an unbeatable kick in a slower race, but is mortal off a hotter pace. There's no way Hocker wins a 5k against Fisher in anything under 13:10, or a 3k in anything under 7:35.
I'd be a little cautious with that 3k proclamation. Hocker is aerobically strong, and if he takes a step forward to 3:30 this year he very well may bring his 3k abilities from 7:35ish to 7:30ish. In that scenario, he may have a pretty good kick in a 7:34 type race. People are reading a lot into Teare beating him in early season races where neither guy is particularly sharp. Note when he was sharp and semi-peaking at NCAA indoors last year he could drop a sub-26 in a 3:53 race. I wouldn't underestimate either guy in a 3K vs Fisher where the PB advantage might get pretty tight.
Fisher's 1500 PR is from 2020. He's a completely different runner now. In 2020 his 5k PR was only 13:11.
I have no doubt that Fisher could run AT LEAST 3:34 at current fitness. Moh Ahmed ran 3:34 in 2020, and I think Fisher is fitter than 2020 Moh Ahmed, and probably has similar speed.
I still give the edge to Fisher in a fast 3k.
I don't think Grant is even close to 3:34. He's been doing primarily 10k training and his 800 best is a pathetic 1:51.86 (Hocker has run 1:46). Hocker ran 3:31 in the Olympic Final after 2 rounds of the 1500m - all in extreme heat. Hocker beat McSweyn who is a 3:29.5 runner and Hocker beat Wightman who is 3:29.4. CLEARLY Hocker was in 3:29 shape if it was a rabbited race at Monaco.
3k favors 1500m runners over 5k runners.
I'm not totally sure if you're trolling, but I'll take the bait anyway. I had to look up Fisher's 800 PR because I didn't realize he even ran an 800 in college.
In contrast, Hocker ran 1:46 at Pac12s, getting dragged along by some very good 800 runners. I hardly think comparing their 800 times is a fair comparison.
Also, why don't you think Fisher could run 3:34? Ahmed ran 3:34 2 years ago, and I doubt 2020 Ahmed was meaningfully quicker than Fisher is currently. I think you're overselling Hocker's strength and underselling Fisher's speed.
@Genesis The Last Domino? Double-CD and 4LP sets out now from http://www.genesis.lnk.to/TheLastDomino Genesis "Throwing It All Away" was released on August 8...
You are living in the world of wouldas couldas and shouldas. Grant told Jerry what he preferred and that was the American records. In a nutshell he is telling u indoor is not the priority. He went for the ARs because he had the fitness and he stated he wouldn’t get another opportunity to run fast. This sets him up so he can put all his energy now into getting ready for the US championships in the 10000m in May. Who knows what he could have done if he chose the other option. we will never know…
Would running indoors only be worth it if Fisher was guaranteed a medal? Don’t you think there’s value in him racing some of the top athletes in the world, many of whom he’ll be facing in the 5k/10k later this year? And if not, what’s the point of running any championship race if you aren’t going to medal/win? Fisher could have just as easily targeted the 10k record (and a huge payday) last summer instead of going to Tokyo as he was obviously in great shape.
I’m still not understanding why you think he had to choose between running a fast 10k and doing indoor worlds. It’s hard to believe March 6 was really the only day this year that he could have gone after the 10k record. As we’ve seen many times, BTC can set up time trials whenever they want. There’s nothing stopping them from running an intrasquad meet like they’ve done in the past to chase records. They don’t have to rely on a big meet being held at the right time because they have enough talent within their team to do it on their own.
Would world indoors only be worth it if Fisher was guaranteed a medal? For Fisher, it's a big maybe. If he gets bronze in the 3k, how does he get more out of that than running 26:33?
Do I think there's value in him racing some of the top athletes in the world? Yes, of course. I'd love to see him racing the world's best more often. I'm just not sure that the value in him racing some of the top athletes in the world in a 3k is more valuable than going for a fast 10k, both from a training perspective and a monetary perspective.
I'm sure they could have gotten another attempt for a fast 10k in if they really wanted to, but they made the decision back months ago, and they probably didn't want to plan on getting in a fast 10k in August, 8 months away from when they were planning. Grant got hurt in the Olympics last year, and there's no guarantee that he gets through WCs and is ready to get the AR. If they chose to do world indoors, didn't medal, and then for whatever reason can't do a record attempt in August, then Grant's missed out on a huge payday and confidence boost. Plus, if they did do an intrasquad meet, people like you would be complaining that they didn't run against other people.