I was planning to buy a home for my growing family (kids ages 4 and 2) around this time, and so the past 3 years have been saving for a down payment outside of normal retirement savings. Have 250k plus saved for a down payment which I have in cash currently as I didn't want to experience a 2020 type crash that prohibits me from entering into the housing market.
Now the housing market is too heated and I'm losing bidding wars. Not sure when or if I should even enter this insane market (trying to buy in Westchester county ny or Fairfield county ct). Inflation is 7% but seems much much higher (feels like 20% honestly). Stock market is heading into bear market levels soon with the Russia sell offs.
What do I do with this cash? Bonds? Gold? Bitcoin? How do I fight inflation while also being liquid enough to enter the housing market when the time is right?
Feels like my only options are
1. Put this in the stock market and risk the market continuing to slide which limits my ability to buy a home.
2. Keep in cash and watch it devalue quickly every month
3. Buy a home right now at the absolute peak
If you truly saved this money outside of retirement savings, and you ARE actually investing in retirement accounts as you should be (diversified stock mutual funds with either Vanguard or Fidelity and you are doing 15% of your salary MINIMUM), then you should NOT put that money in the market. It is earmarked for a home down payment. You should not risk money like that in the short term in the market. The market is for long term investing. You should also not put that money into bonds or gold or bitcoin or anything else that could lose you money in the short term. Hold the money in cash. Make a plan to buy a house within a certain time frame...2 years, 3 years, whatever. Even add to the pile of cash if you can and want to. If there are still bidding wars by the end of the time frame you choose so that you can absolutely not buy a house, then consider moving someplace else where you can...or find a builder and have a new house built. Whatever you do, do not hold that money short term in bonds, stocks, or commodities. Just a really bad idea.
I'm in a similar situation as the OP (just closed on a home flip and have picked up $325K cash). My wealth manager said the EXACT SAME THING you are saying. In my situation, however, the cash will be ready when I find another home that looks good to renovate and flip.
Why do you feel your cash is "devaluing" every month? We have $180k cash right now in CapitalOne earning 0.50% which is better than nothing and better than a year ago, but not as good as when 2.0%... but every day I am grateful I didn't invest it in the stock market.
Probably high-yield savings accounts are the best you can do if you need the money at a moment's notice, although "high-yield" is about 0.5% right now everywhere. Maybe it will go up a bit later this year as the Fed increases rates.
I-bonds may be another option. That locks your money up for a while and only lets you invest $10,000 per year (I think), but it's at least a 7% interest rate
If you truly saved this money outside of retirement savings, and you ARE actually investing in retirement accounts as you should be (diversified stock mutual funds with either Vanguard or Fidelity and you are doing 15% of your salary MINIMUM), then you should NOT put that money in the market. It is earmarked for a home down payment. You should not risk money like that in the short term in the market. The market is for long term investing. You should also not put that money into bonds or gold or bitcoin or anything else that could lose you money in the short term. Hold the money in cash. Make a plan to buy a house within a certain time frame...2 years, 3 years, whatever. Even add to the pile of cash if you can and want to. If there are still bidding wars by the end of the time frame you choose so that you can absolutely not buy a house, then consider moving someplace else where you can...or find a builder and have a new house built. Whatever you do, do not hold that money short term in bonds, stocks, or commodities. Just a really bad idea.
I'm in a similar situation as the OP (just closed on a home flip and have picked up $325K cash). My wealth manager said the EXACT SAME THING you are saying. In my situation, however, the cash will be ready when I find another home that looks good to renovate and flip.
You need a wealth manager to tell you basic Dave Ramsey type financial advice?
I was planning to buy a home for my growing family (kids ages 4 and 2) around this time, and so the past 3 years have been saving for a down payment outside of normal retirement savings. Have 250k plus saved for a down payment which I have in cash currently as I didn't want to experience a 2020 type crash that prohibits me from entering into the housing market.
Now the housing market is too heated and I'm losing bidding wars. Not sure when or if I should even enter this insane market (trying to buy in Westchester county ny or Fairfield county ct). Inflation is 7% but seems much much higher (feels like 20% honestly). Stock market is heading into bear market levels soon with the Russia sell offs.
What do I do with this cash? Bonds? Gold? Bitcoin? How do I fight inflation while also being liquid enough to enter the housing market when the time is right?
Feels like my only options are
1. Put this in the stock market and risk the market continuing to slide which limits my ability to buy a home.
2. Keep in cash and watch it devalue quickly every month
3. Buy a home right now at the absolute peak
Don't do any of the above those are all stupid ideas. Follow the below directions.
1.) Buy a plane ticket you will want to fly first class it will make you feel the part.
2.) The plane ticket will be to Las Vegas Nevada.
3.) You will want to spent $10,000 per night on a luxury suite you are going to need your rest for the next part of this plan.
4.) Buy crystal meth and hard alcohol this will help you stay awake for a long period of time. It will also assist in you having the balls to do the below.
5.) You will have roughly $225,000 remaining.
a. Go to the Roulette Table put $100,000 on Green 00 if it hits you win 36/1 you make $3,600,000 if it does not shake it off.
5.) You have $125,000 remaining after the above missed opportunity.
a. The crazy slot machines at Caesars Palace in the High Limit Room off to the far right there is one $10,000 a spin yeah its a big boy. You are going to put $100,000 in and max it out that is $20,000 a spin you get 5 Spins make them count. A mixed line pays $250,000 however the Double Diamond Pays $32,000,000. Triple Diamond pays $64,000,000.
6.) If you win you will be hooked on Vegas if you lose at least you had fun. The above ideas if you lose you wont get laid looking like a crazy high roller you will just be sitting in front of your computer pissed off like some 95 year old Grandparent.
Why do you feel your cash is "devaluing" every month? We have $180k cash right now in CapitalOne earning 0.50% which is better than nothing and better than a year ago, but not as good as when 2.0%... but every day I am grateful I didn't invest it in the stock market.
Probably high-yield savings accounts are the best you can do if you need the money at a moment's notice, although "high-yield" is about 0.5% right now everywhere. Maybe it will go up a bit later this year as the Fed increases rates.
I-bonds may be another option. That locks your money up for a while and only lets you invest $10,000 per year (I think), but it's at least a 7% interest rate
With real inflation close to 20% (name one major expense item that only went up 7% this year. I'll wait), the only options are to keep cash in an high savings account earning *checks notes* .5%.
Putting in stock market is a gamble since we are in bear market terrority.
Calling BS on 20%. My primary expense is tuition for my kids, and this only increased by 4.5% (a typical increase). For my own expenses, then, inflation is running somewhere around 5%.
Be patient. With interest rate hikes coming for the next 2 years, investments/gambling/speculation will not pay off well unless you really know what you're doing.
Calling BS on 20%. My primary expense is tuition for my kids, and this only increased by 4.5% (a typical increase). For my own expenses, then, inflation is running somewhere around 5%.
My daughters preschool raised its tuition from 900 a month to 1250 (said with rents up and having to pay more for teachers they were forced).
Rents and housing in my area is up over 20% YoY
Gas is up 50% YoY
Groceries are up over 7%. Easily 15% more expensive now when I check out.
Calling BS on 20%. My primary expense is tuition for my kids, and this only increased by 4.5% (a typical increase). For my own expenses, then, inflation is running somewhere around 5%.
My daughters preschool raised its tuition from 900 a month to 1250 (said with rents up and having to pay more for teachers they were forced).
Rents and housing in my area is up over 20% YoY
Gas is up 50% YoY
Groceries are up over 7%. Easily 15% more expensive now when I check out.
Excuse me, but how is inflation still 5 to 7%?
Agreed. Same in my area (more expensive though on housing).
Had a plumber come out and now they are charging all customers $25 dollar fuel surcharge on all calls.
I say Option 1, go into the market. Things are pretty low right now, and this Russia Ukraine conflict won't last months and months. I'd be surprised if there's still a lot of fighting by the end of April, will probably be done by April 1st. Once that happens I'd bet most mutual funds will gain 10% from now to early summer.
Down arrows are extremely infantile. Instead of down arrows, debate me on here and refute my statement that S&P have no other choices but to go down with the ship. Debate me on here and refute my statement that indices like managers at Vanguard have zero choices besides writing some covered call contracts. More managed money mutual funds will beat indices this year. Make your argument.
In my opinion, housing is not at its peak. If you plan on living in your home for 5-10 years at least, and you can afford the payments comfortably, I'd still try to get into the market. Especially while interest rates are still pretty low.
I bought a house in 2015 when the market was just as crazy. Everything getting outbid, way above asking. I was personally outbid 4-5 times before landing an offer. Lots of doomsayers at the time saying the market has overheated, we're in a bubble, etc...
My home has doubled in value since then.
That wasn't the first home I've purchased. I also bought one in the early 2000s that I sold in 2007, fortunately before the actual RE bubble (created by fundamental issues within real estate lending and banking) burst. Then again in 2010.
The lending atmosphere is different now and we're not primed for a collapse like 07-08. Supply/demand is way out of whack for a variety of reasons and likely to remain that way for quite some time. If interest rates rise sharply, the RE market will cool off nonetheless, but if you're expecting a crash that can lead to a 30-40% discount, I wouldn't hold your breath.
In my opinion, housing is not at its peak. If you plan on living in your home for 5-10 years at least, and you can afford the payments comfortably, I'd still try to get into the market. Especially while interest rates are still pretty low.
I bought a house in 2015 when the market was just as crazy. Everything getting outbid, way above asking. I was personally outbid 4-5 times before landing an offer. Lots of doomsayers at the time saying the market has overheated, we're in a bubble, etc...
My home has doubled in value since then.
That wasn't the first home I've purchased. I also bought one in the early 2000s that I sold in 2007, fortunately before the actual RE bubble (created by fundamental issues within real estate lending and banking) burst. Then again in 2010.
The lending atmosphere is different now and we're not primed for a collapse like 07-08. Supply/demand is way out of whack for a variety of reasons and likely to remain that way for quite some time. If interest rates rise sharply, the RE market will cool off nonetheless, but if you're expecting a crash that can lead to a 30-40% discount, I wouldn't hold your breath.
30% drop is realistic. People are throwing up homes for sale right now that are 40% higher than what they bought like 3 years ago (in many places, 50 to 60% higher!). If that current market cools down 30%, then you are basically bringing it back to reality for many people that bought homes 3 to 4 years ago (which would be a modest 5 to 10% gain for them). The people that are burned are people who bought in past 6 months.
I'm seeing absolutely entitled listings on Zillow right now. Homes in bad school districts asking premium prices (with high taxes).
Absolute cheap/tear down homes over a million.
weird layout homes (2 bedroom only etc) asking premium prices.
You can tell many people are trying to offload their crappy homes and make off like bandits.
With 6 dollar gas, inflation, and wages not keeping up....no way this continues.
How about a mix of a few things, (1) keep 100k in cash in a high yield savings account won't be much interest but will be very safe (2) put 75k in VOO/SPY or mix of broad market ETFs, could go down if recession but also S&P is down 10% right now and this could be a good medium term entry point (3) put 75k into stable coins that earn 8-10% interest. I don't now much about this process but have heard and am considering this myself.
I have to ask, what do you do such that you can save $250k cash in 3 years?
If you truly saved this money outside of retirement savings, and you ARE actually investing in retirement accounts as you should be (diversified stock mutual funds with either Vanguard or Fidelity and you are doing 15% of your salary MINIMUM), then you should NOT put that money in the market. It is earmarked for a home down payment. You should not risk money like that in the short term in the market. The market is for long term investing. You should also not put that money into bonds or gold or bitcoin or anything else that could lose you money in the short term. Hold the money in cash. Make a plan to buy a house within a certain time frame...2 years, 3 years, whatever. Even add to the pile of cash if you can and want to. If there are still bidding wars by the end of the time frame you choose so that you can absolutely not buy a house, then consider moving someplace else where you can...or find a builder and have a new house built. Whatever you do, do not hold that money short term in bonds, stocks, or commodities. Just a really bad idea.
I'm in a similar situation as the OP (just closed on a home flip and have picked up $325K cash). My wealth manager said the EXACT SAME THING you are saying. In my situation, however, the cash will be ready when I find another home that looks good to renovate and flip.
How about a mix of a few things, (1) keep 100k in cash in a high yield savings account won't be much interest but will be very safe (2) put 75k in VOO/SPY or mix of broad market ETFs, could go down if recession but also S&P is down 10% right now and this could be a good medium term entry point (3) put 75k into stable coins that earn 8-10% interest. I don't now much about this process but have heard and am considering this myself.
I have to ask, what do you do such that you can save $250k cash in 3 years?
I work in investment banking. still relatively junior so i'm not a pulling those insane bonuses yet.
How about a mix of a few things, (1) keep 100k in cash in a high yield savings account won't be much interest but will be very safe (2) put 75k in VOO/SPY or mix of broad market ETFs, could go down if recession but also S&P is down 10% right now and this could be a good medium term entry point (3) put 75k into stable coins that earn 8-10% interest. I don't now much about this process but have heard and am considering this myself.
I have to ask, what do you do such that you can save $250k cash in 3 years?
This is probably the best answer, although Flagpole has some points - if you want to be conservative.
Some cash in high yield savings, some in S&P 500 ETF, and $20-$50K in oil futures or long call options in oil stocks (this is the gamble part - tho not much of one as even after the dip today I don't see how oil doesn't hit $180 this summer, at least).
The poster about entering the housing market asap is also correct. Housing prices may dip, but it won't be 30-40%. Also, what is your rent in NYC? I'm assuming ALOT.