Seth Demoor runs almost 70 minutes at Detroit, NYC might be brutal

Although I agree that he hasn't done nearly enough paced work since Pikes Peak, he's also got peak mileage in his legs. It's really hard to turn it over on 20 miles a day volume.

Demoor Global wrote:

Pro hobby jogger/youtuber Seth James Demoor ran 1:09:42 today. It's most certainly not a time he wanted. Probably needs some faster stuff under his legs. I would predict around 2:27-2:28 at New York due to this performance. I think he has been putting too much vert in. Discus.

Although (from what I gather from the post above) he ran it with tired legs, this was entirely predictable. His training for non-ultra distances is complete garbage. And I know I'm a low-life hobby jogger piece of trash compared to him, but he's done this training style of super high slow mileage and sparse specific workouts for several road race training cycles now and he consistently falls short of his expectations (which to me are actually quite reasonable given his potential). It's time he did some self-reflection if he really does intend to run the times he sets for himself.

This is a bit harsh asSeth has admitted that his training (going from vertical mountain to road) are not recommended for everyone.

Leading into Detroit there was very little taper and this in prep for the NYC marathon in 2 weeks

Or once he tapers he can keep it up for twice the distance. We'll find out when the NYC marathon. Food for thought he has been doing 140 mile weeks for the last 5 weeks.

Looking at his Strava now, it doesn't look like he ever wanted to run the race all out. I was a bit harsh here, therefore. I still think his training is not good for producing what he expects of himself.

not the fastest wrote:

Or once he tapers he can keep it up for twice the distance. We'll find out when the NYC marathon. Food for thought he has been doing 140 mile weeks for the last 5 weeks.

I think he's burnt out. Things gotta be tough with all the craziness in his life plus training.

I’m a fan, but I find that he does not race very smartly. Always seems to have 2-3 miles to start off that are faster than anything else for the run. I would like to see him close the race out with his last 5k as his fastest.

Taken on its own, it isn't that good for him - but considering context, there's nothing to read into it.

His 2021 goal race was PPM. That prioritisation left a shortened lead-up to NYC - he has pointed out in many videos that his approach has been, of necessity, completely left-field. Essentially he realises that the PPM block has had to serve as a 'base-phase' of sorts for NYC. He knew this would be the case 6 months ago - but still, PPM was his priority.

On top of that, this race (Detroit half) comes right after peak mileage (previous weeks he has been at 140mpw!) in the modified block, and before he properly starts his taper for NYC. So he was never under any circumstances running 64/65.

He hasn't done enough speedwork, that much is true. That's a common theme. Had he the opportunity, he would prob have increased this - and I think slowly, slowly (frustratingly slowly) will increase it over time. Still don't think he'll PB in NYC, but that's because of circumstances - the race will be solid enough, but I do think he's more of a realist than 1-2 years ago.

Having said all of that, 2:27 is not unrealistic if all goes worse than expected. sub-2:23 unlikely, 2:25-high maybe more so with a good taper

It's always easy to be an arm chair coach.

What is his NY goal time?

I ran 2:25 low recently having run a half marathon 5 weeks prior in 70:41. I only had a total of 10 weeks running before the marathon due to an injury so was getting fitter all the time. I could see him being able to hold fairly close to this half marathon race pace for the full distance when tapered. He always, always go out too hard though. He's probably capable of 2:21 - 2:22 if he races smart but that's extremely unlikely based on his past record. He always races very dumb! I predict 2:27 if he goes out far too hard and blows up, 2:23-2:25 if he goes out a bit too hard and holds it together and 2:21 if he runs to potential.

flyingfrog wrote:

What is his NY goal time?

At one time he said he wanted to run Sub 2:20.

However, he does not appear to be laser focused on peaking for it. If I remember correctly, before his Amsterdam race two years ago, he ran a pretty fast time trial half at altitude and did a lot more faster stuff.

It's almost as if he is expirementing with a huge base (vertical plus mileage) followed by a Tom Osler inspired sharpening phase. (Osler wrote a pamphlet in the late 1960s recommending running all Long Slow Distance until about six weeks before race day and then "sharpening".)

FWIW -- Seth's tune-up before Pikes Peak this year was not super impressive but he crushed the ascent a couple weeks later.

Let's see if he can defeat retired elite woman and now hobby jogging mom Shalane Flanagan by 20 minutes? After all, she will have run five marathons in the weeks leading up to the race.

He is a non-entity. He won't even be in Manhattan when the winner crosses the finish line.

A Tom Osler reference! I am impressed.

His livestream is today. Someone should ask him some hard questions regarding his road training. I hope when he runs CIM next year he will actually put enough speedwork in. Do something totally the opposite of what he has been doing for marathon training. I don’t think he realizes that it actually takes more than 2-3 speedwork sessions to adapt to race pace.

Who?

I don't know why, but he never runs 'tempo.'

Every run is in the mountains, or 'steasy,' or overdistancing some racing shoe he'll never wear again, or 'spiking up' to do some weirdo thing on the track that reminds me of The Athlete Special. He's chronically missing a gigantic part of a rational training plan, so his race times can be expected.

He'll go mid-2:20s at NYC, which is 5-7 minutes slower than he wants.