Official 2021 D3 XC Thread

Kellys?

d3xc.. wrote:

Joe Freiburger may be fast and sexy, but he is not a hot dog. As far as I can tell the only hot dog in the race will be Alex Phillip.

LOL

Biggest movements comparing Final Results with Final USTFCCCA Ranking:

Punching Above their Weight:

-11 St. Olaf (17th place / Ranked 28th)

-6 Lynchburg (18th place / Ranked 24th)

-6 Vassar (21st place / Ranked 27th)

-5 U Chicago (11th place / Ranked 16th)

-4 Bates (26th place / Ranked 30th)

-3 John Carroll (4th place / Ranked 7th)

-3 Wis Whitewater (5th place / Ranked 8th)

-3 Wash U (7th place / Ranked 10th)

-3 RPI (14th place / Ranked 17th)

-3 Amherst (28th place / Ranked 31st)

Chokes:

+11 Haverford (31st place / Ranked 20th)

+8 Wartburg (9th place / Ranked 1st)

+7 Colby (22nd place / Ranked 15th)

+5 Emory (23rd place / Ranked 18th)

+5 Tufts (30th place / Ranked 25th)

+3 SUNY Geneseo (8th place / Ranked 5th)

+3 NCC (15th place / Ranked 12th)

+3 Wis Eau Claire (25th place / Ranked 22nd)

+3 Loras (29th / Ranked 26th)

Pretty Close:

-2 PP (Champs / Ranked 3rd)

-2 Case Western (19th place / Ranked 21st)

-2 Calvin (27th place / Ranked 29th)

-1 Williams (3rd place / Ranked 4th)

-1 Johns Hopkins (24th / Ranked 25th)

+2 Otterbein (16th place / Ranked 18th)

+1 Wis LaCrosse (10th place / Ranked 9th)

+1 Carnegie Mellon (12th place / Ranked 11th)

+1 Wis Oshkosh (20th place / Ranked 19th)

Dead On:

2) MIT

6) CMS

13) Middlebury

32) WPI

Any big takeaways?

burnout boi wrote:

Freshman spotter wrote:

Did Tufts Dad officially retire?

IGC may have run a full mile in 4:02 but Jamie Norton ran a mile in 4:06 which is actually faster once you adjust for inflation. 4:06 in 2011-2012 is actually worth 4:00 today. Congratulations to Tufts Dad on his sons new PR. A full mile in 4:00 is very impressive.

Didn't hear any Jamie Norton chants today :(

First off, it was a great race. I'm sure some were happier than others, but the racing itself was still pretty fun to watch. Some takeaways:

1. The race was super tight- After the first 4 that came in, the difference between 5th and 20th was only10 seconds. In some cases, 1 second could move you up 4 or 5 places.

2. The race was more competitive than previous years due to at least 10-12 5th year seniors using that off year to stick around for one more shot. Runners like Ryan and Freiburger wouldn't have even been in this race in normal years. This phenomenon will be around for the next several years and all be interesting to see if runner graduate and use that extra eligibility to go to grad school elsewhere.

3. Pomona was dominant, and it wasn't even close. Their top 3 are all still sophomores so they be solid for at least a few more years.

4. MIT's pack running is legit and they come from behind. At 1k they were in 12th place as a team with 391 points! That is insane moving up through the field.

5. Hate Williams all you want but putting 2 in the top 5, and 3 in the top 20 shows they deserve top billing. And I think this puts to bed all that talk about choking.

What a great race, and now on to track!

Have been to maybe 15 NCAA DIII XC championships and I think this one had the largest crowd I can remember. I thought the atmosphere was outstanding and both races of high quality. Was this the fastest men’s National field ever? The number of guys under 24 was I believe 8, has that ever happened and over 100 men broke 25. That is ridiculous depth for a DIII race.

Individually, Kassie Rosenbum was dominant. 20:10. Has anyone ever broke 20 at a National meet?

The men’s team race was exciting. MIT’s pack running was impressive but Pomona Pitzer had too much in the end. Wartburg went out really really hard and at least in my opinion made a big mistake in doing so.

John’s Hopkins women got it done again but big props to CMS and they gave them a bigger scare than many thought possible.

Overall a great championship!

Missy Buttry ran 20:00.2 in 2003, with no one else sub-21.

I am waiting for the day when announcers stop equating closing speed in an 8km to 800m pr. Just watched over the broadcast, the male announcer (not sure his name) must have mentioned someone's 800 pr in relation to how their kick will be 5 or more times. Just because Aidan Ryan has run 1:53 on a track does not mean he will close an 8k faster than someone with a 1:56 or so PR like Lindgren or Phillip, (also I'm sure they could run faster than that, but that's besides the point). Cross country and track are entirely different sports, let alone a <2 min race vs a >23 min race,.

Interesting. Wouldn't classify a movement of 3 as significant for any school placing over 10th. Those spots get to be pretty interchangeable, especially since most teams didn't compete against each other so rankings are still a guessing game.

Of the top 10 teams: Wash U, John Carroll, and Whitewater were definitely impressive "step ups" on Saturday. SUNY Geneseo would probably not be considered a choke. Mostly just got outran by the three great runs by the teams above. Now Wartburg....woof. When's the last time a Top-3 ranked team fell so hard?

Not top 3, but the Carnegie Mellon team of 2019 was ranked 4th going into nats and finished outside of the top 15.

Buttry has the course/championship record by over 40 seconds on course that has hosted three Nationals championships. She was the real deal. And she's still fast, just running in the 2020 Olympic Trials with 2:41!

It was a fantastic atmosphere and the races were crazy fast. The qualifying times for All American (40th place) from 2019 would have finished 74th in the women's race and 117th in the men's race this year. I don't think the conditions were all that different - was it just the fifth years? Or the training without racing in Covid year? Or is D3 just getting better?

SlowFood wrote:

It was a fantastic atmosphere and the races were crazy fast. The qualifying times for All American (40th place) from 2019 would have finished 74th in the women's race and 117th in the men's race this year. I don't think the conditions were all that different - was it just the fifth years? Or the training without racing in Covid year? Or is D3 just getting better?

The conditions were very different. It was SUPER muddy as well as cold/rainy in 2019 compared to a very dry hard packed ground and nicer temperatures in 2021.

Ran in both races wrote:

SlowFood wrote:

It was a fantastic atmosphere and the races were crazy fast. The qualifying times for All American (40th place) from 2019 would have finished 74th in the women's race and 117th in the men's race this year. I don't think the conditions were all that different - was it just the fifth years? Or the training without racing in Covid year? Or is D3 just getting better?

The conditions were very different. It was SUPER muddy as well as cold/rainy in 2019 compared to a very dry hard packed ground and nicer temperatures in 2021.

I guess that explains why the times were about 40 seconds faster for the men compared to 2019. My initial suspicion was the course itself wasn't the same, but mud in 2019 would explain a lot. Here is a comparison by place:

10th place was 24:40 in 2019 and 24:01 in 2021

25th place was 24:51 in 2019 and 24:12 in 2021

50th place was 25:07 in 2019 and 24:29 in 2021

100th place was 25:27 in 2019 and 24:50 in 2021

150th place was 25:48 in 2019 and 25:05 in 2021

A better comparison is 2021 and 2016. It was the same course and the conditions were far more similar (2016 was colder and windier, but within the same ballpark). The time differentials between those two years is pretty incredible too and speaks to both how deep this year is and the general improvements in DIII running in the last 5 years.

I spoke to two runners who ran both 2019 and 2021. They said it was slightly muddier in 2019, but not enough to make much of a difference

Actually, comparing 2016 to 2021 is a worse comparison. Despite being at the same venue, the course was DRASTICALLY different pre-2019: two bigger loops on the main side of the course by the start and only 1 loop on the backside to the finish. The course was fast before, but definitely runs faster now that the wooded/hill part back by the airfield was taken out. Also, 2016 was a lot windier since the temp had dropped over 40 degrees overnight with a cold front.

Comparison with LACCTiC rankings with actual results

Men's Race

Actual compared to LACCTic

Pomona-Pitzer (1st place/ranked 2nd) [-1]

MIT (2nd place/ranked 3rd) [-1]

Williams (3rd place/ranked 1st)[ +2]

John Carroll (4th placed/ranked 7th)[ -3]

Wisconsin Whitewater (5th place/ranked 8th)[ -3]

CMS (6th place/ranked 4th) [+2]

Washington U (7th place/ranked 12th) [-5]

SUNY Geneseo (8th place/ranked 6th) [+2]

Wartburg (9th place/ranked 5th) [+4]

Wisconsin La Crosse (10th place/ranked 16th) [-6]

U of Chicago 11th place/ranked 11th) [0]

Carnegie Mellon 12th place/ranked 9th) [+3]

Middlebury (13th place/ranked 10th) [+3]

RPI (14th place/ranked 19th) [-5]

North Central (15th place/ranked 13th [+2]

Otterbein (16th place/ranked 15th) [+1]

St. Olaf (17th place/ranked 22nd [-5]

Lynchburg (18th place/ranked 17th) [+1]

Case Western (19th place/ranked 26th) [-7]

Wisconsin Oshkosh (20th place/ranked 21st) [-1]

Vassar (21st place/ranked 32nd) [-11]

Colby (22nd place/ranked 20th) [+2]

Emory (23rd place/ranked 23rd) [0]

Johns Hopkins (24th place/ranked 18th) [+6]

Wisconsin Eau Claire (25th place/ranked 29th) [-4]

Bates (26th place/ranked 31st) [-5]

Calvin (27th place/ranked 25th) [+2]

Amherst (28th place/ranked 33rd) [N/A because the LACCTiC model would not have them in]

Loras (20th place/ranked 14th) [+6]

Tufts (30th place/ranked 34th) [N/A because the LACCTiC model would not have them in]

Haverford (31stplace/ranked 30th [+1]

WPI (32nd place/ranked 35th [N/A because the LACCTiC model would not have them in]

"Punching above their weight" (-3 or more)

Vassar (-11)

Case Western (-7)

Wisconsin La Crosse (-6)

Washington University (-5)

RPI (-5)

St. Olaf (-5)

Bates (-5)

Wisconsin Eau Claire (-4)

John Carroll (-3)

Wisconsin Whitewater (-3)

"Chokes" (+3 or more)

Johns Hopkins +6

Loras +6

Wartburg +4

Carnegie Mellon +3

Middlebury +3

"Pretty Close" (within 2)

Pomona-Pitzer (-1)

MIT (-1)

Wisconsin Oshkosh (-1)

Otterbein (+1)

Lynchburg (+1)

Haverford (+1)

Williams (+2)

CMS (+2)

SUNY Geneseo (+2)

North Central (+2)

Colby (+2)

Calvin (+2)

"Dead On"

University of Chicago (0)

Emory (0)

Who is more accurate, the coaches association rankings or the LACCTiC rankings?

So uh, what happened to the Midwest?