What realistic scenario would put Gwen Jorgensen on the Olymic team?

rojo wrote:

... I think it's really cool she went for her passion. It's like MJ going to baseball. Why not? You dont want to live life with regrets. Som runners are jealous of all the attention she's she in my mind is like DK Metcalfe. SHe deserves it. I

OP here ... I'm with you. It's cool that she's gone for it and really poured her heart into it even when it wasn't going well. Kudos to her. It would be fun to see her have some success, but then again, she already had the kind of success as a triathlete that most aspiring athletes can only dream of. Maybe it is somebody else's turn

Trails are cancelled.

Team spots are awarded based on most YouTube views for athletes with an Oly Q mark.

That’s the only way Gwen makes it.

tacomafan wrote:

Mass food poisoning at the trials?

+1

With a name like Jorgenson, she might be better trying for the Swedish, Danish or Norwegian teams based on recent nationality. Its usually based on either a grandparent of a certain nationality or at least one year's residency but as you say, national federation rules may differ. I think Coe has tightened up these rules recently however and its probably too late to change nationality this Olympic cycle.

Dncirk wrote:

ddidididid wrote:

So you think it is unreasonable for a person who ran a 15:08 5k to run a 31 min 10k a couple months later after the end of a training cycle? I would suggest you must be pretty new to the sport not to have seen dozens of people with those sort of splits over the years.

He didn’t say a 31 minute 10k. He is asking her to essentially run 15:25 and 15:25 back to back. Is it possible? It is extremely unlikely and she would have to set a big personal best at the Olympic Trials. Even then she likely does not make the team.

He said it would be unrealistic to set a PR by 1 min. Setting a PR by a min is about what I would expect if she runs a good 10k.

Run a 31 min 10k and you will likely have been in contention with 400 to go. I doubt she can kick with everyone else though.

Best hope starts with cranny and schweitzer running the 5k and huddle/sisson being injured. Then she would just need to beat a half dozen 31-3115 runners.

No realistic chance, no unrealistic chance. Simply no chance. Why are there constantly threads about her on here? I don't see daily threads on Carrie Dimoff, Elaina Tabb, Olivia Pratt, or Sarah Pagano making the Olympic team. I know, you're probably thinking, "Who are they?" Well, all four of them have run faster than Jorgensen and, like her, they have no chance. Jorgensen's ONLY chance to make the Tokyo team was if she stayed in triathlon. She chose to go another route. The entire 10K field (except for Jorgensen) could fall at the start, take 30 seconds to stand back up, and she would still easily get run down by Cranny, Sisson, Huddle, Infeld, Hall, and maybe a couple others.

Maybe she could claim Greek citizenship.

OP here ... I'm with you. It's cool that she's gone for it and really poured her heart into it even when it wasn't going well. Kudos to her. It would be fun to see her have some success, but then again, she already had the kind of success as a triathlete that most aspiring athletes can only dream of. Maybe it is somebody else's turn

OP HERE. I don't know who you are.

That being said, I agree with you.

I will make the Olympic team and return here asking for apologies.

I will place 3rd in the 10k and get the Oly standard by going with a pack of 5 at 8k. Hall and Infeld will pull away with two laps to go and will take first and second. I will push the pace with the remaining three. On the last lap, my kick will be weak but I'll barely fend off the other two remaining contenders and take 3rd.

I will not go home devastated. Go back to your Mom's basement.

Do we actually know what her kick is like in a slow race?

Every single race she is balls to the wall trying not to get dropped. What is she like in a 16 minute race.

I know the popular impression is that she's a grinder / diesel-type - but her results are better the shorter she goes...

cow jumped over the moon wrote:

No realistic chance, no unrealistic chance. Simply no chance. Why are there constantly threads about her on here? I don't see daily threads on Carrie Dimoff, Elaina Tabb, Olivia Pratt, or Sarah Pagano making the Olympic team. I know, you're probably thinking, "Who are they?" Well, all four of them have run faster than Jorgensen and, like her, they have no chance. Jorgensen's ONLY chance to make the Tokyo team was if she stayed in triathlon. She chose to go another route. The entire 10K field (except for Jorgensen) could fall at the start, take 30 seconds to stand back up, and she would still easily get run down by Cranny, Sisson, Huddle, Infeld, Hall, and maybe a couple others.

Maybe she could claim Greek citizenship.

That's an entertaining thought -- how big of a head start would she need on Cranny, Sisson, Huddle, Infeld, Hall, Schweizer, etc., in order to make the team? Even if she had a pacer to run a PB..

Additional scenario (OP here btw)

Gwen's vlogging crew is of course filming the trials for her adoring fans. While attempting to get close up footage of Gwen fading further and further back, the Segway/OneWheel the videographer is on flips out of control and nails Shelbo/Rowbury/and all the top girls in a pileup in a corner. The Segway gets back up and pwns the other chicks, snapping ankles and tendons and really giving it to them.

Where you think this is going (Tanya Harding) turns out it was just a software glitch from the manufacturer. Or the guy in bangalore that pushed out the firmware update was infatuated with Gwens YT channel and created his own User Story.

Gwen jogs to a 17:34, looking fresh for the camera and posts inspirational quotes on social media. Having met the standard in the qualifying window, Gwen is on the team in the 5k.

Alternatively: At the OT a virulent airborne disease spreads like wildfire, but somehow only Gwen is immune. Same idea, she jogs in for a 17:34, hopping over the other ladies bodies and is selected first.

Alternatively, only 4 ladies withstand the outbreak to finish, and Gwen is selected as the first alternate with said 17:34

Or, like I said a number of times before, she can take part in the exhibition sport of Swimrun, where she actually stands a chance of competing to some extent.

And since Swimrun doesn't involve shoehorning a triathlete onto a bike and increasing the odds they'll crash and be hurt X 1,000 this is a good career move.

OP here. Pinot grigio mile becomes an official Olympic event (finally).

OP here wrote:

Additional scenario (OP here btw) ....

mar828 wrote:

OP here. Pinot grigio mile becomes an official Olympic event (finally).

This is getting out of control. haha

There is but one OP, and I am registered.

Not Paulo wrote:

Do we actually know what her kick is like in a slow race?

Every single race she is balls to the wall trying not to get dropped. What is she like in a 16 minute race.

I know the popular impression is that she's a grinder / diesel-type - but her results are better the shorter she goes...

The women's 10k doesn't usually come down to a kick. Her speed is pretty bad (those TTs last summer showed that), but that's also why I think she has more potential at 10k. The top runners will probably be spread out and if she is in sub-31 shape and peaks at the right time she has a chance to be top 3.

I think the 10k does now - look at the kick for the sound meet 10k. Also, I don’t think she’s ever hit sub 31. Just saying, I think the women nowadays are fast enough that it will come down to a kick.

Going back to the less competitive tri. 90% of the world's population don't have access to a swimming pool or a £5k bike

The triathlon is like the Winter Olympics during the Summer Olympics.