What realistic scenario would put Gwen Jorgensen on the Olymic team?

Nobody really cares about this. She was apparently a great triathlete. She is a very good national class runner but not quite elite enough to make an Olympic team. That is all.

Swimrun

Here are her personal bests:

https://worldathletics.org/athletes/united-states/gwen-jorgensen-14314034

5K: 15:08

10K: 31:55

HM: 1:10

FM: 2:36

I think the entry standards for the Tokyo Olympics are 15:10, 31:25, and 2:29:30.

If she already has a qualifying time in the 5K, I think it would be pretty tempting to run the 5K and hope she does well in a slow heat. She might be in sub-31:25 shape for the 10K but it'll be tough  to set the pace for a top 3 finish in sub-31:25 if the pace is slow.

The 10k field is not that deep. I think Gwen can run high 30:xx, and if she peaks at the right time she could make it.

Hardloper wrote:

The 10k field is not that deep. I think Gwen can run high 30:xx, and if she peaks at the right time she could make it.

Why would you expect a 35 year old woman to beat her personal best by one minute in a 10000m race? These are the kind of notions that make no sense to reasonable people.

Injuries have unfortunately been an issue for some of the top contenders like Huddle, Infeld, and Fraser. They all seem healthy, and I hope that remains the case. That said, it is not unrealistic that a healthy Jorgensen makes an impact if injuries pop up for some of the favorites. Still seems unlikely though:

https://tracktimes.run/times/womens-10k/

The 5k/10k double is a possibility at the trials, right?

Dncirk wrote:

Nobody really cares about this. She was apparently a great triathlete. She is a very good national class runner but not quite elite enough to make an Olympic team. That is all.

I do. I wonder how/what she thinks about it every day, keeps training hard and what motivates her. It is very much her running career on the line. So how does she mentally prepare herself for each day? Does she believe can make the team and how does she visualize that happening? Or deep down, has she already given up? Or hoping for a miracle? What?

As someone who has won Olympic gold, I can't imagine she is delusional. She must be acutely aware of the situation she is in. In any event, objectively, as an athlete and a competitor, I think her situation is very interesting and unique. In terms of the psychology of the sport, I can't see how anyone wouldn't find her situation interesting as hell.

Well the reason it is not interesting to me is that there is no mystery here. Gwen is not good enough as a runner to make the Olympic team. How is it that you cannot see this? Who cares what she thinks? It is irrelevant to whether she is good enough. Her story as a runner is not that uncommon. She just happened to be a great triathlete. Block that out of your mind. It is leaving some of you confused. Just look at her running. It is not good enough.

Dncirk wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

The 10k field is not that deep. I think Gwen can run high 30:xx, and if she peaks at the right time she could make it.

Why would you expect a 35 year old woman to beat her personal best by one minute in a 10000m race? These are the kind of notions that make no sense to reasonable people.

Big PBs in the 10k happen. Carrie Dimoff and Keira D'amato have done exactly what you describe. She's run 15:0x and her speed is pretty bad so she has a lot more potential at 10k than she has shown so far.

Dncirk wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

The 10k field is not that deep. I think Gwen can run high 30:xx, and if she peaks at the right time she could make it.

Why would you expect a 35 year old woman to beat her personal best by one minute in a 10000m race? These are the kind of notions that make no sense to reasonable people.

Because she's only been focusing on running for a few years?

David S wrote:

Dncirk wrote:

Why would you expect a 35 year old woman to beat her personal best by one minute in a 10000m race? These are the kind of notions that make no sense to reasonable people.

Because she's only been focusing on running for a few years?

And she ran 31:55 in 2018 and 32:12 in 2020 and 32:39 this year.

Mass food poisoning at the trials?

She had hubris coming into running believing she could win a gold medal in the marathon. Now, she has too much pride to quit. I also believe that she believes she can make the team in either one. Yes, she didn’t go to altitude so she should have much better performances, but I also believe the others in the field have earned it and I personally am not rooting for her to make a team. If she does, it will be because the others were injured or had a bad day. She would get smoked at the actual olympics.

No negativity towards Gwen, but I feel this is correct. She is a very good runner. But the US is very deep. I just don’t think she is fast enough. The 5k? Even if the trials aren’t super fast, I assume the top 3 will all have sub 14:50 pr’s. The 10k? Similar. I’ll take a rising Monson and maybe slowing Huddle over her.

I wish Gwen her very best result, but I don’t see top 5 in either event.

There is zero chance Jorgensen makes the team. Even if she ran a 1 min. PB in the 10,000 that would still be within range of the other competitors. They would just sit on her and outkick her at the end. People who focus on times completely overlook the fact that track races nearly always come down to the kick. Jorgensen has none, which puts her at a huge disadvantage.

I’ve been in her shoes in regards to qualifying times-

5000m is the only option.

Go Gwen!

A scenario would be it's a tactical race and everyone falls on the last lap except for her and maybe a couple other people.

Dncirk wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

The 10k field is not that deep. I think Gwen can run high 30:xx, and if she peaks at the right time she could make it.

Why would you expect a 35 year old woman to beat her personal best by one minute in a 10000m race? These are the kind of notions that make no sense to reasonable people.

So you think it is unreasonable for a person who ran a 15:08 5k to run a 31 min 10k a couple months later after the end of a training cycle? I would suggest you must be pretty new to the sport not to have seen dozens of people with those sort of splits over the years.

ddidididid wrote:

Dncirk wrote:

Why would you expect a 35 year old woman to beat her personal best by one minute in a 10000m race? These are the kind of notions that make no sense to reasonable people.

So you think it is unreasonable for a person who ran a 15:08 5k to run a 31 min 10k a couple months later after the end of a training cycle? I would suggest you must be pretty new to the sport not to have seen dozens of people with those sort of splits over the years.

He didn’t say a 31 minute 10k. He is asking her to essentially run 15:25 and 15:25 back to back. Is it possible? It is extremely unlikely and she would have to set a big personal best at the Olympic Trials. Even then she likely does not make the team.