Killeriottt wrote:
Fact: almost all of you are not understanding the impact of altitude on Cheptegei’s 1500m. It was almost nonexistent. The altitude was 3937. This might have slowed Cheptegei by .5 second. Maybe. Look at Kip Keino running 3:34.91 at 7382 feet in an Olympic final in 1968. This was Keino’s lifetime best. Joshua Cheptegei had no response when his mate and the unknown Kenyan Kamar Etiang went by him. Joshua is very likely a doper and this race provides further reason to be suspicious. 3:41 is probably his 3000m pace if he raced last year and now he is working hard to run 3:37.
It's a good start, but I still see some of your unfiltered imagination. For example, is ".5 second. Maybe." a fact?
We know from altitude studies that effects on endurance performance are observable at low altitudes from 1000-3000 ft. In a 2005 study, they observed that at 3900 ft. altitude, the drop in VO2max for the unacclimated sea level runner is about 5.5%. This would correspond to about 10 seconds for the 3:37 1500m runner.
But beyond altitude, we would need to flesh out more facts in all relevant areas related to observed performance, before we start embellishing them with imagination designed to draw the conclusions we want. Not only unique factors like the previously mentioned shoes, and track lighting/pacing, but many other factors that every experienced and successful coach is aware of: talent, training, strengths, weaknesses, peaking, pacing, importance of event, etc.
Even in 1968, the Olympics is an event of significant importance, and many athletes train to be in peak form at the Olympics.
In Cheptegei's own words, this event in Uganda, his first track race of the season, in April, was meant to test his speed, in preparation for the upcoming Olympics, several months away.
We should hardly draw too much significance from the first track race of the season, in an event that an athlete is not training for.