2021 Boston Marathon cutoff predictions

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I'm wondering what happens next year. It's a really long window (sept. 2019 to october 2021 I bet) to qualify. There's a tremendous backlog I'm sure of people who missed out today. Might be just as bad as this one I'm afraid. I'm thinking unless I'm racing great in the summer and want to go crazy for a fall race before the deadline, that 2023 will be the move with a normal window and getting the 5 minute aging up cushion.

Many many races did not happen during that window though. I think it will back to normal cutoff times.

Middle Aged Runner wrote:

Old And In The Way wrote:

I missed it by a minute. Bah!

A friend of mine missed qualifying by 19 seconds. A woman posted an image in a Boston Facebook group showing she qualified by just 1 second. Every second can count in a BQ race. Good to remember when running the last 10K of a BQ attempt when the one may be approaching the wall.

Yeah but the difference this time is most people didn't think they were in any danger when on pace to run 7+ minutes under the BQ.

different this time... wrote:

Middle Aged Runner wrote:

A friend of mine missed qualifying by 19 seconds. A woman posted an image in a Boston Facebook group showing she qualified by just 1 second. Every second can count in a BQ race. Good to remember when running the last 10K of a BQ attempt when the one may be approaching the wall.

Yeah but the difference this time is most people didn't think they were in any danger when on pace to run 7+ minutes under the BQ.

I agree. It was not until the BAA announced the field reduction from 30,000 down to 20,000 that runners started worrying about their buffers of say 5 or more. My goal for my first marathon in 2016 was a buffer of 5+ to be safe and allow earlier registrations.

I don't get why they didn't say the 2022 window before today. I got my acceptance email today (-17 minutes) but am hurt and it's probably going to be a stretch to even run it but I went ahead and applied anyway since who knows when I'll be able to qualify again. Wouldn't have even applied if I knew I could still use my time for next year and helped screw people over in the process.

VaporBoi wrote:

I don't get why they didn't say the 2022 window before today. I got my acceptance email today (-17 minutes) but am hurt and it's probably going to be a stretch to even run it but I went ahead and applied anyway since who knows when I'll be able to qualify again. Wouldn't have even applied if I knew I could still use my time for next year and helped screw people over in the process.

What did you expect the window to be? I don't know why anyone would've thought that the April 2022 race wouldn't have to include at LEAST the fall season before COVID.

I must say it's somewhat demoralizing, after years of trying, to be told, "you finally qualified but you don't qualify." I'm 6+ under and according to BAA, I'm a "qualifier." But I can't race. Because I "didn't run fast enough." Even though I ran faster than the many most other qualifiers (in other genders and older age groups) and faster than most if not all of the charity runners.

And it's all "cUz coVid" and "social distancing" for a pandemic for which we have a vaccine that everyone will have had an opportunity to get by October 11th, in an activity where it'll be impossible to keep people "social distanced" where hundreds of thousands of spectators won't be social distanced.

So, it feels really weird to be in that grey area of "qualifier not fast enough to qualify who's faster than most qualifiers."

But that's enough p*ssing and moaning, I suppose. After all, life isn't fair. I'll just have to get faster.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I'm wondering what happens next year. It's a really long window (sept. 2019 to october 2021 I bet) to qualify. There's a tremendous backlog I'm sure of people who missed out today. Might be just as bad as this one I'm afraid. I'm thinking unless I'm racing great in the summer and want to go crazy for a fall race before the deadline, that 2023 will be the move with a normal window and getting the 5 minute aging up cushion.

Assuming they go from 20,000 to 30,000 again, that would make some room for the backlog (since it was almost 9,000+ 'qualifiers' who got the boot). Combine that with the fact that a large amount of qualifiers from the 2018-2019 window during which there were a ton of races, who aged into easier brackets, won't be in the mix next time.

My guess (?) would be that it would be back to a more normal qualifying time (?) but who the hell knows at this point,

The only solution is to get faster. How much faster in anyone's guess, with the BAA's love for moving the goal line.

Don't sweat it and don't let it define you.

You qualified for Boston, which is a mark of mild mediocrity as somewhat serious runners. Serious being you actually train more than 3 days a week and /or care. You'll likely get in at another time.

I'd have been interested in going this year for other reasons before the pandemic. I had a BQ-16 or something (I stopped counting) and I have a BQ-8 or 9 after Sept 2019 should that be the cutoff for 2022. Will I go for 2022? maybe. Boston's cool somewhat - but its far more interesting to do a race like that with a bunch of buddies. Aim for a year when you have a lot of people going.

I did Boston one year where I had a few friends while we waited and it was pretty cool. I've also done NYC a couple times; once where I barely knew anyone in the starting block for hours in the cold, and another when I had 6 buddies on a pretty nice sunny day. Which do you think I had more fun at?

I think the first time I BQ'd it was sold out before I registerred but so what - there are other years and there was.

Got my notice. I'm in

Your “mild mediocrity” line made me laugh and this post helps put things in perspective. Thank you.

BQ-20 wrote:

Got my notice. I'm in

Congrats 👍🏻

Just got my notice that I'm in. I hope the race actually happens.

Went to high school near the 6-mile mark, watched many Bostons in person. I was a committed Mid-D guy, didn't think I'd ever do a marathon. But still, having lived it as a kid, I always harbored the fantasy of running the course.

Long story short, made friends with an ultra runner (He was 23rd in the Tarahumara race 5-6 years back.) I got the bug! We burned up the mountains.

First marathon, I missed by 1:42. Ran easy for 20 miles, then slammed the last 5. Next time out, nailed it by 16 min at Napa Valley. One odd note - I was highly motivated to qualify, by as much as possible. I ran the tangents. I don't think I saw one other runner doing the tangents!

My goal is to be there, soak it up, and finish. Sure it would be cool to have a quick day, but there are other courses, other races for that. Hope to see you there!

No problem. Remember Boston is the only thing to some people. I know some who've got in through charity entries in the past just so they can say they ran Boston (despite being a 6 hr runner...). Just keep it in mind what's important and have fun.

under a bridge wrote:

VaporBoi wrote:

I don't get why they didn't say the 2022 window before today. I got my acceptance email today (-17 minutes) but am hurt and it's probably going to be a stretch to even run it but I went ahead and applied anyway since who knows when I'll be able to qualify again. Wouldn't have even applied if I knew I could still use my time for next year and helped screw people over in the process.

What did you expect the window to be? I don't know why anyone would've thought that the April 2022 race wouldn't have to include at LEAST the fall season before COVID.

If they’re going to let Sept 2019+ qualifiers register again in 2022, why not just defer the 2020 race to 2021, and then everyone after Sept 2019 gets to run in 2022?

Instead, those runners get to qualify for two Bostons from one race, while the 2020 people get screwed.

Anybody else see they are in on the Athlete's Village site but NOT get an email? Mine says accepted but no email as of yet.

It turns out that the first few posters on this thread were right in predicting a 7-10 minute buffer. Seems to have been the consensus view elsewhere as well.

FWIW, I got my acceptance email yesterday as well. Booked my (refundable) hotel room a couple of weeks ago. Had my first vaccine shot last week and training begins today.

Now, all I need is the border between Canada and the US to be open come October...

BOSTON Native wrote:

Anybody else see they are in on the Athlete's Village site but NOT get an email? Mine says accepted but no email as of yet.

i was an early registrant (streaker) and have been 'accepted' since April 20, but never got an email

My guess is around 7 or 8 minutes.

GettingFasterDude wrote:

I must say it's somewhat demoralizing, after years of trying, to be told, "you finally qualified but you don't qualify." I'm 6+ under and according to BAA, I'm a "qualifier." But I can't race. Because I "didn't run fast enough." Even though I ran faster than the many most other qualifiers (in other genders and older age groups) and faster than most if not all of the charity runners.

Charity racers are the problem. Get rid of them and you and 9,000 others are in. I remember the days when you knew you were going to Boston the moment you crossed the line at your qualifying race. The BAA values the 5-hour plus charity runners more than the sub-3:00 people. There are people who ran 2:52:14 and did not get in while some rich guy who never ran a marathon before and barely runs a couple times a week who will "qualify" to run because he has enough money to just pay the charity fee himself. Doesn't even need to go out and try to collect charity money. Running Boston is no longer an achievement; anybody with enough money can simply buy their way in. There are well over 1,000 marathons around the world and these charity programs can send people to any of them. Paris, Berlin, London, Tokyo, Athens, Rome ... but they choose to go to Boston because people think only "fast" people can qualify to run it. Heck, there are people from Massachusetts who use the charity program to get in. "I could go to London for free but instead I'll go 30 minutes down the road to Boston. What an awesome trip! And people will think I am a BADASS!!!"