2021 Boston Marathon cutoff predictions

Honestly I think it's a complete toss up. Could see it being around 7-10 minutes, or could see it being the usual 1-2 minutes.

I'm gonna guess 6:30 for the cutoff, but as someone with only a 3.5 minute buffer, I hope I'm wrong

Mike_Milburys_Shoe wrote:

Honestly I think it's a complete toss up. Could see it being around 7-10 minutes, or could see it being the usual 1-2 minutes.

I'm gonna guess 6:30 for the cutoff, but as someone with only a 3.5 minute buffer, I hope I'm wrong

Others in one of the several Boston Marathon Facebook groups estimated it would be a 7 to 10 minute cutoff based on the buffer for about the first 16,000 accepted entries from 2020.

From the below website:

During the registration period, the breakdown of accepted Qualifiers was as follows:

4,051 Qualifiers met their qualifying time by 20 minutes, 00 seconds or faster.

6,772 Qualifiers met their qualifying time by 10 minutes, 00 seconds or faster.

6,948 Qualifiers met their qualifying time by 05 minutes, 00 seconds or faster.

5,885 Qualifiers met their qualifying time by 1 minute, 39 seconds or faster.

471 Qualifiers were accepted based on finishing 10 or more consecutive Boston Marathons.

290 Qualified Para Athletes have been accepted, or are expected to be accepted, through the conclusion of the Para Athletics Divisions and Adaptive Programs registration period.

Middle Aged Runner wrote:

Others in one of the several Boston Marathon Facebook groups estimated it would be a 7 to 10 minute cutoff based on the buffer for about the first 16,000 accepted entries from 2020.

Yeah but, I'm not sure how much to project 2021 cut-off, based on 2020 registrations. That was for an April race, which was not up against the other two major domestic fall marathons in NYC and Chicago as this race will be. I also think international demand is a total wild card and will most likely be down. What BAA has said also makes it clear that this will not be a typical Boston experience and so those with qualifying times that will likely also work for 2022 might sit it out and other folks might sit it out for the similar reasons. Massachusetts has also been fairly restrictive in terms of Covid restrictions and so some might not want to risk cancellation (I live here and am actually bullish on the race happening). In other words, lots of factors at play that might dampen demand from what it was in 2020 and so I'm guessing cutoff will be under 5 minutes. On the other hand, there haven't been any mass participation big city marathons for going on 2 years now, and so there may be massive pent up demand that I'm underestimating

It will be one minute under.

Most can't/won't travel.

1 minute wrote:

It will be one minute under.

Most can't/won't travel.

god i hope you're right

Many are not interested in a fanless Boston run with masks. Maybe 5/6. Next time.

no thanks wrote:

Many are not interested in a fanless Boston run with masks. Maybe 5/6. Next time.

I think October is going to be quite a bit better than you might expect

From 2020: 24,127 accepted qualifiers of 27,288 applications…result: BQ-1:39 of those:

20 min+ 17.2%

10 min+ 28.6%

5 min+ 29.4%

0 min+ 24.8%

(For reference, from 2020, qualifier #16,000 was about BQ-6:31)

What will add to the cutoff:

- More time to have run a qualifier (bear in mind, most races were canceled for a 12 month span)

- More runners will fall in to the ”next” age category over the 2.5 year span

What will subtract from the cutoff:

- Chicago Marathon a day earlier

- New York Marathon 4 weeks later (will likely happen at this point and will draw some New England runners because of proximity)

- Paris Marathon

- Many will still fear Covid, not just for themselves but their family, crowds, travel etc. etc.

- Travel chaos, especially international

- financial reasons, let's not forget, many are still in financial dire straights

- Some already choose the virtual option

With all of these factors, my prediction -----> BQ--3:30

1-4 minutes

My prediction is that the massive uncertainty of it all and residual COVID-chaos will balance out the smaller field size and other factors, and it'll end up being a normal cut-off. But there's enough unknowns that I'm not super confident in that prediction, and I could be wrong. I'm sitting at -6:09, but it's recent enough (Feb 2021) that I might be able to use it for April '22 if I'm bounced this go 'round.

I think due to pent up demand, the expectation for significantly less Covid sicknesses, my prediction BQ - 7:00

For the sake of you joggers. Damn.

I am a 2:22 marathoner and I am getting into the Elite/sub Elite corral.

I think you must have accidentally responded to the wrong thread

I ran in 2017 and had the typically, great Boston Marathon experience. I ran it in 2018 experienced much less support from the crowd and just about the worst weather one can experience for the race. At least the line of buses I was in got lost and had to drop us off one mile from the start line. I never had to experience the wet, muddy mess of the Runner's Village. I got to watch the start of the pros and others. It was a highlight of my 2018 experience. When else will I ever be able to watch the start and later jump into the race. There was no line at the portable toilets near the starting line.

I don't mind missing the typically Boston experience in 2021 as I got that in 2017--nothing could ever equal a first race where the weather was beautiful which brought out the spectators. The only issue is it was a little too warm for runners. It will be the first Boston race in the fall which will be a new experience. For those that buy the Celebration Jackets it will be one of the few years with the traditional colors.

I know a number of runners with much less buffer than me. I would like to see them make it to the 2021 race too. All of us live in Great Lakes states and all would pick Boston over Chicago and other fall marathons. Chicago is an easy car drive for me. I qualified for it once based on time and ran it. I think I would try other marathons for a first time experience rather than repeat Chicago. Chicago may be a one and done race for me. Everyone has their own opinion.

No. Its laughable that all of you of like so on the edge of getting in or not. Jeez. If only you cared about others and life as much.

Not only because i am a sub elite 2:22 marathoner, but damn. You jogggers talk and bi*ch to much.

letsrunnin21. wrote:

No. Its laughable that all of you of like so on the edge of getting in or not. Jeez. If only you cared about others and life as much.

Not only because i am a sub elite 2:22 marathoner, but damn. You jogggers talk and bi*ch to much.

You seem fun!

Just for the record I'm 30 minutes below the AG qualifying time. Obviously I'm in. However, I have multiple friends and family members who are on the bubble. This affects me because: 1) I care about them, 2) it affects my travel/race plans.

If some of these friends and family on the bubble make it, I'm going to Boston. If none do, I'll go to another race to be with them. I've done Boston numerous times and would rather have an awesome trip with friends and family.

For those worried about cancellation, there is cancellation insurance offered with payment due at time of registration. Full refund.

Around 14 USD. And registration fee includes a 25 USD surcharge for Covid mitigation for the race.

adductor_injured wrote:

For those worried about cancellation, there is cancellation insurance offered with payment due at time of registration. Full refund.

I'm afraid the baa.org website specifically states that this insurance does not cover "If the B.A.A. and event organizers cancel the race due to factors outside of their control"

The insurance covers you if you get injured and cannot run or if there is severe weather that prevents you from travelling

2:50