Elle Purrier Chooses 1500

Houlihan & Purrier in the 1500 are just a notch in stature below Muhammed & McLaughlin in the 400 hurdles. Shelby & Elle are not 1-2 in the world but have to be considered amongst the top 6 or 7. That's a rock star duo I can't wait to see face off -- like Simpson & Rowbury were doing when they were in their mid-late 20s several years ago.

Which leaves one more spot open on the W1500 Oly team .

There is a fair chance that Simpson could still outkick Johnson & select few others mentioned earlier for that 3rd spot.

However, in the 5k -- without Houlihan & Purrier -- there is an excellent chance no one will outkick or outrun Jenny for the win, much less for 2nd or 3rd place.

With the announcement last month that the Trials schedule will match the Olympics, thus making the 1500 -5k double impossible --and now Purrier's decision to focus on the 1500 -- Jenny has to at least be seriously considering the 5k.

Bowerman VI wrote:

However, in the 5k -- without Houlihan & Purrier -- there is an excellent chance no one will outkick or outrun Jenny for the win, much less for 2nd or 3rd place.

With the announcement last month that the Trials schedule will match the Olympics, thus making the 1500 -5k double impossible --and now Purrier's decision to focus on the 1500 -- Jenny has to at least be seriously considering the 5k.

I can imagine Schweizer and Cranny forcing the tempo from a fairly long way out, with Rowbury able to hang while Simpson loses contact.

Despite the scheduling, I still hope for this fantasy scenario in which Houlihan competes in and qualifies for the double because she’s better than everyone else. Say in the 1500 she lets Purrier go with 300m left and finishes in a dead heat with Johnson (or Simpson, or whoever) for the 2nd and 3rd spots. An hour later she races the 5k, which gradually winds up from 3k out and she simply stalks teammates Schweizer and Cranny until the last lap when she out-kicks them for the win. Seems entirely realistic to me. The big question is whether attempting the double at the Olympics would kill her chances for a medal because she’d be burning the candle at both ends, or actually increase her odds because she gets two cracks at it.

Wise Old Man wrote:

Rowbury ran 4:02.5 and 14:45 last summer in real races, not time trials. I would not count her out at the trials in either event depending on what she chooses to do. Certainly in the 5000 there are not three US athletes clearly faster at the end of 2020.

I had forgotten about that - great reminder. The trials are going to be fun to watch. Whatever Jenny and Shannon decide to run, I hope it's the same event.

Mu will make the team running 3:59.

It'd be great but I just can't see Jerry signing off on it.

Per one of Pete Julian's IG posts from last summer's Big Friendly meet series, he referred to Rowbury as a 5k runner.

With all that has transpired since, look for Shannon in the 5k at the Trials.

Look, I like Purrier. She's great. I've been hyping her up for years to be a big star. But let's cool the jets a little bit. Top 6?

Which one of these six would she displace?

Hassan

Dibaba

Muir

Houlihan

Tseguy

Kipyegon

All of them are 3:55 or better with God knows how many DL wins under their belts. Purrier's Millrose games mile was insane - but literally just one race that she has not been able to replicate since. I'd still be tempted to say that even though Purrier beat Klosterhalfen in that race - there's no way Purrier runs 4:16 front running it. Similarly, Purrier beat GDS in Millrose (though GDS seemed off all indoors 2020), but GDS beat Purrier 3x in 2019 including by some 6-7s in the Birmingham DL.

Let Elle break 4 and make a world final before putting her in that top conversation. One indoor mile does not make a superstar. She can make that happen, but still has a ton to prove.

Purriers not a medal favorite or anything, but you’re underselling her a bit. She ran 4-flat on a high school track in a time trial last year as well as 2:00.7. She ran a huge neg split two mile this past indoor season that was impressive. I’d say she’s a very solid pick to get in the Final at worlds and finish in the middle of the field at 1500. She very well could finish 6th or 7th.

Go to the 5:55 mark in the following "It's Not the Shoes" post-race interview w/Pete Julian at the TX Qualifier in February:

https://www.flotrack.org/video/6905643

Summary: Pete states both he and Marc Coogan/NBB coach know Elle can run under 14:30 for 5k. Then, Pete postulates "she probably can run low-3:50s for 1500, she just needs to get in the right race."

After watching all her races since last year's Millrose, including her time trials last summer as well as this winter's races, that's all one should need to believe Purrier is one of the world's best at both distances but particularly the 1500/mile as that's her main event and a low 3:50 is just a couple/few seconds off the current world record.

Which makes Sinclaire Johnson's 800m win over Purrier at the Prickly Pear meet in February all the more impressive as both are 1500 specialists coming off winter base training more suitable to racing the 5k & 10k at the time. Sinclaire is arguably the fastest sprinter amongst the Bowerman Babes.

Which, going full circle back to Jenny Simpson, suggests her best chance of making another US Olympic team lies in an event other than the 1500.

TrackCoach wrote:

Predictor Person wrote:

Simpson for the win unless Brenda trips her up. Lol.

Sinclaire Johnson!

Remember that name.

I agree. I think she will make the team.

Per a different thread just posted today (4/8), Houlihan now confirmed for the 1500 which was expected..

To paraphrase a recent slogan . . . Your Move, Jenny . . .

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Purriers not a medal favorite or anything, but you’re underselling her a bit. She ran 4-flat on a high school track in a time trial last year as well as 2:00.7. She ran a huge neg split two mile this past indoor season that was impressive. I’d say she’s a very solid pick to get in the Final at worlds and finish in the middle of the field at 1500. She very well could finish 6th or 7th.

I think we might be talking about this from slightly different angles. I agree she *could* very well come 6th or 7th in Tokyo. But there's a difference between saying Purrier could, in a world/Olympic final beat enough runners to come top 6, and saying "Elle Purrier is one of the 6th best 1500m on the planet right now." Right - a really good comparable would be DeBues-Stafford. In 2019 she beat Gudaf Tseguy twice, plus Klosterhalfen, Muir, and Dibaba all once - while also running 3:56. However, I would not say that GDS was as good/better than Tseguy, KK, Muir, or Dibaba in 2019. This is because the other athletes were consistently faster and won more races both in 2019, and before 2019. Ergo while GDS had the ability to come top 6 (6th in Doha), I would not say she was the 6th best 1500m in the world in 2019.

I would say almost identical could apply to Purrier - like GDS she has 1 lightning quick time - (4:16 mile) and has beaten some quality opposition (though yet to beat one of the big six). However, she has no consistent established record of beating top competition. It's a tease - that Wannamaker Mile was an insane display that was a massive step up from her last results, and still head and shoulders above anything she's had the chance to do since.

So yes, I agree - top 6 a real possibility at Tokyo, but to be considered in that top 6-8 she needs to be taking the odd W over top 6 runners and consistently performing at the top. I believe she can get there but it would be inaccurate to say she's already there - and the Delilah/Sydney comparison is a bit fanciful too.

[/quote] Summary: Pete states both he and Marc Coogan/NBB coach know Elle can run under 14:30 for 5k. Then, Pete postulates "she probably can run low-3:50s for 1500, she just needs to get in the right race."

After watching all her races since last year's Millrose, including her time trials last summer as well as this winter's races, that's all one should need to believe Purrier is one of the world's best at both distances but particularly the 1500/mile as that's her main event and a low 3:50 is just a couple/few seconds off the current world record.

Which makes Sinclaire Johnson's 800m win over Purrier at the Prickly Pear meet in February all the more impressive as both are 1500 specialists coming off winter base training more suitable to racing the 5k & 10k at the time. Sinclaire is arguably the fastest sprinter amongst the Bowerman Babes.[/quote]

Yeah, I'm filing this under PJ's words getting away from a bit. Sub 14:30 for 5000m I find plausible under the right conditions, definitely sub 14:40. In Texas, Klosterhalfen solo'd a 31:01 10K, while Purrier solo'd a 15:08 5k. Brutal conditions, but the comparison is helpful as both were solo efforts on the same night KK is usually good for 14:20-14:30, so given Purrier's effort was a bit less impressive a fair guess would be that Purrier could hit high 14:20s, low 14:30s.

However low 3:50s "under the right conditions?" Her 4:16 generously converts to a 3:55 outdoor 1500m, though the tables are quite soft on the indoor mile I think so a 3:56 might be more apt. She won't get better conditions than being perfectly paced/dragged to a 4:16 by Klosterhalfen. Discounting 70s/80s Eastern Bloc/Ma's Army, only 5 women ever have broken 3:55. Suggesting someone is in low 3:50s is a very bold claim.

Lots of people *could* do something, and have potential to do so, but also I think people get caught up in the excitement of track and forget how difficult it is to turn that potential into reality. I don't think I'm being harsh on Elle in any of this. I just think people are forgetting 1) how lightning some other women in the 1500m are right now and b) how insane sub 3:55 is.

To be fair, I'm just saying I like her chances over Linden Hall, Laura Weightman, Winny Chebet, Jemma Reeke, Jenny Simpson, Arafe et al who fill out a WC 1500 field. I do not think she will beat Hassan, Muir, Tsegay, Houlihan, Kipyegon.

Bumping after this latest set of performances. I think Purrier has completely validated her Millrose performance. Still a ridiculous group to take down (though no Hassan who is doing 5K/10K) with Muir, Kipyegon, Houlihan and Tsegay. But I think she's clearly shown she belongs in the discussion.

Predictor Person wrote:

Simpson for the win unless Brenda trips her up. Lol.

Does Morgan Uceny have the standard?

In 4:10 1500m shape, as she was in recently, Jenny Simpson wouldn't make either 1500m or 5000m teams. Because that race was a lot closer to the trials than Centro's 3:40 (which itself was only 5 seconds off the likely winning trials time) and a lot further from top contenders, I'm more worried about her making the team than I was about Centro. She knows how to make teams, with about ten U.S. teams in a row, but maybe she is coming back from an injury. I'd like to see her run sub 4:05 or low 2 before I feel very confident in picking her for the team. Nevertheless, I believe she will qualify third in the 1500m with her race savviness, good kick, and knowledge of what it takes to prepare for the Trials.

I picked Sinclaire over her a few weeks ago, but she just threw up a huge clunker this week. That being said, it is a tough road for Jenny. There're tons of athletes in the 4:00-4:05 range. This isn't like the men's side where Centro needed to improve 4-5 seconds and suddenly he was on even footing with everyone. Jenny will need to be in 4:01 shape and run a great race.