Who’s America’s next 3:30 guy? Do we even know his name?

Cooper Teare and Reed Brown both have a super solid chance for it. Both ran 4:00 or faster for the mile while still in high school, and both can run a 3:54 mile right now any day of the week. With 1500/5k focus, I think both could get down under 3:32, perhaps under 3:30.

grant fisher

I am thinking Bucky Larsen because he is born to be a star.

John Lester

Jwilliams.18 wrote:

Rheinhardt Harrison from Nease highschool in Florida would be one of those “under-18” guys. He went 4:01 in the full mile as a 16 year old back in August. He’s won every race he’s been in during the xc season, just running the second fastest time ever on the Florida state meet course today at AAU Nationals. I should know, I was 43 seconds behind him.

How difficult is the Tallahassee CC course? Does it have a speed rating?

When I look at FL HS CC records, Brent Hoffman (14:14 3 miles) Herbert Wills (14:16 3 miles), and Keith Brantly (14:18 3 miles) stand out more than Harrison's 15:26 for 5K in the state meet.

AAU meet on the same course this year, I guess, where Harrison ran 15:08.

Harrison is putting up shocking times as a miler. Hope he doesn't get over-trained. Jim Ryan was amazingly talented, and I think if Ryan focused more on the 800m, especially at Mexico City 1968 Olympics, he wins the 800 gold. I've been to Mexico City, and almost the entire time there, I felt oxygen-deprived, even just walking.

bugattiaron wrote:

Cooper Teare and Reed Brown both have a super solid chance for it. Both ran 4:00 or faster for the mile while still in high school, and both can run a 3:54 mile right now any day of the week. With 1500/5k focus, I think both could get down under 3:32, perhaps under 3:30.

I love Reed Brown as much as the next guy, but he doesn't have a solid chance at 3:30. Most of his PR's are from his freshman year of college, and I'm not sure how far under 14:00 in the 5k he could go (right now his PR is 14:22). Now Cooper, on the other hand, may have a chance.

What about Nico Young? Once he matures and adds a little bit of muscle to his frame, I could see him doing it with his strength.

Not even close. He won't break 3:40.

my picks wrote:

#3 - Cole Hocker. Pretty recent suspect, but I remember back in 2018 him splitting 4:05 as a junior on the NBON DMR and running down our 1600m anchor and thinking "dang that guy looked relaxed". Fast forward to now and he's run 3:58 as a true freshman and just ran 7:45 and nearly beat an Olympic gold medalist, and he's still 19!!! A lot of people are looking at him as a Rupp-level talent, but what most people don't realize is that this kid ran 1:50 in high school. This kid is not only good, he's got speed. Ben Thomas is exactly the coach he needs to develop him in all aspects, and I think he's the best young prospect out there. I think if he doesn't turn pro early he could also be looking at 3:30-3:33 by the time he leaves Oregon, and if he does it will come even sooner.

This is looking like a smart take.

my picks wrote:

My picks wrote:

#3 - Cole Hocker. Pretty recent suspect, but I remember back in 2018 him splitting 4:05 as a junior on the NBON DMR and running down our 1600m anchor and thinking "dang that guy looked relaxed". Fast forward to now and he's run 3:58 as a true freshman and just ran 7:45 and nearly beat an Olympic gold medalist, and he's still 19!!! A lot of people are looking at him as a Rupp-level talent, but what most people don't realize is that this kid ran 1:50 in high school. This kid is not only good, he's got speed. Ben Thomas is exactly the coach he needs to develop him in all aspects, and I think he's the best young prospect out there. I think if he doesn't turn pro early he could also be looking at 3:30-3:33 by the time he leaves Oregon, and if he does it will come even sooner.

Former 3:30 guy for 1200m wrote:

This is looking like a smart take.

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Agree completely!

I think many people have underestimated the quality of Hocker´s 3:50.55 mile. Some use his split time at the 1500m 3:35.?? as comparison but this is wrong.

Hocker´s 1500m time should be calculated by dividing the mile time with 1.08 which gives a 1500m time at 3:33.47, (Teare´s mile time 3:50.32 equals 3:33.32 in the 1500m).

I wouldn´t be surprised if Hocker and/ or Teare go 3:30 already this year if they join some of the fast DL 1500m in Europe, especially Monaco.

Hocker and Teare are faster than Jake Wightman and less than 2 seconds behind Jakob with these calculated 1500m times!

Teare and Hocker this year. Kessler in three years. Those are the easy picks.

It's not gonna be Hunter. He isn't gonna shave off 10s of his recent 3:40 indoor run, yes outdoor is faster but not that much. Nothing in his running form indicates he can ever reach that level, no matter what training he does. Also very injury prone.

It's also not gonna be Brazier. WAY too fast-twitch. Some people like Makloufhi run well over 1500 on low mileage, but I just can't see someone like Brazier or Rudisha go out and run a 3:30, even if they drastically change their training. Their leg muscles just aren't made for an event that needs a lot of slow-twitch muscles. Lewandowski was less fast-twitch than Brazier, did 100+ mpw for many years and even he couldn't do it.

Also it makes absolutely zero sense for Brazier to even risk or think about moving up. 1500 races in the current meta are either Cheruiyot or Ingebrigtsen pushing the pace like crazy and running in 3:30 or faster, essentially eliminating any chance of winning for almost the entire field. They not gonna run a tactical race when someone like Brazier or Lewandowski is in the mix.

People underestimate how much different the 800 is from the 1500. Symmonds is a great example - strength based 800m runner, 70-75+ mpw PLUS cross-training (2-3 swim sessions/week), and not even close to 3:30. If Symmonds is so far off, how would Brazier ever have a chance of breaking it?

Chances are no US guy will run 3:30 anytime soon. It's a huge barrier.

Brazier if he wants to.

Else Hocker or Nuguse.

Former 3:30 guy for 1200m wrote:

my bet would be on a ... wrote: Stating Brazier a likely 3:30 man is to state van Damme would have been a 3:30 1500m man.

What? Why do I have to accept your crackpot notion that Brazier is Ivo Van Damme reincarnate? Did Van Damme ever run 1:42.34? (No, 1:43.86). Van Damme could probably have run 3:33.0ish in summer of ‘76. That has nothing to do with what Brazier could run, even if it is in the same ballpark.

With all respect, what Van Damme was best at was looking like he was 40 when he was only 22.

That's a poor assessment of Van Damme. He has a listed 400 PR of 46, won 2 Silver Medals including Walker barely holding him off in the 1500 and died in a car accident age 22. There was nothing about his appearance that made him look older than 22.

Coe also has a listed PR of 46 and was almost 25 when he set his 800 WR.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Former 3:30 guy for 1200m wrote:

What? Why do I have to accept your crackpot notion that Brazier is Ivo Van Damme reincarnate? Did Van Damme ever run 1:42.34? (No, 1:43.86). Van Damme could probably have run 3:33.0ish in summer of ‘76. That has nothing to do with what Brazier could run, even if it is in the same ballpark.

With all respect, what Van Damme was best at was looking like he was 40 when he was only 22.

That's a poor assessment of Van Damme. He has a listed 400 PR of 46, won 2 Silver Medals including Walker barely holding him off in the 1500 and died in a car accident age 22. There was nothing about his appearance that made him look older than 22.

Coe also has a listed PR of 46 and was almost 25 when he set his 800 WR.

False.

Also, you’re humorless. Van Damme was obviously a great runner.

punch up wrote:

Brazier if he wants to.

Else Hocker or Nuguse.

Wait is Nuguse from the USA?

red5 wrote:

punch up wrote:

Brazier if he wants to.

Else Hocker or Nuguse.

Wait is Nuguse from the USA?

Yeah, just Google “Yared Nuguse IAAF,” it’s pretty easy.

From Kentucky and runs for Notre Dame. What did you think?

red5 wrote:

punch up wrote:

Brazier if he wants to.

Else Hocker or Nuguse.

Wait is Nuguse from the USA?

Yes.

And I know he hasn’t done a track race in about a year, but back then he was battling with Hoare who just had a big breakthrough.