Did you see the norwegian Championships? Jakob ran there a 3:33 absolutely alone from the beginning and looking very relaxed. He loocked very capable to hold on, this speed for longer. He need to run twice 3:40 to reach 7:20. I think he will be able to do that in the future. He is a 1500m/5000m guy from the beginning of his career. Not like Gerrouj or Lagat o added the 5000m later. So 3000m should be his race. I bet on him.
Impala31 wrote:
None of them will break it.
12:35 does not convert to faster than 7:20 and Cheptegei lacks speed so I guess 7:22-23.
I don't seen how jakob could shave 7sec off his pb in the next few year. Probably 7:23-24 at best in the next years.
I don't know if kiplimo can still make huge progression but I doubt it. He looks like a fully developped athlete.
So Komen WR is safe for a few more years. All tried (El G, bekele Gebre) but only one got closer than 5sec gap lol.
Komen is also the only guy to ever break 8:00 for the two mile. I know it isn't run as often but it was a pretty big deal breaking the 4 minute mile, twice with zero rest. Komen was an absolute beast. Saw him up close but not for long as he won an 8km race I was in.
I predict it will be broken by somebody not running yet and will last another 12 years.
Jakob has the potential to break the 1500 and 3000 records in the next few years. He is young and very accomplished already. His PRs are outstanding and he has upside potential that indicates he may be able to set some WRs.
hgggg wrote:
Against McSweyn(who is a superior 1500 runner) Kejelcha has a better resume so far but absolutely not far more upside. Gotta be kidding me there. I will save this post for next year during which we'll see who drops their PBs more. Mc Sweyn is faster but Kejelcha has more endurance strength. It will always be close between them at the 3000.
You're being a prisoner of the moment here. McSweyn is having a good season, Kejelcha is having a lousy one BUT Kejelcha has been a stud for years and has already run 12:46 (doing a lot of the work), 3:47.0i and won 10K silver. Kejelcha also indoors in 2019 ran 3:31.46/3:48.46 which were not at Boston fwiw and are on par with McSweyn's PBs if you are a BU Track truther. There's no convincing case that McSweyn has superior speed to Kejelcha. If he does, it's pretty marginal. The strength disadvantage he has is massive and in the 3000 that is a far greater factor than a moderate speed advantage that might not even exist.
McSweyn would have to improve a good deal to be as good as Kejelcha was when he ran his 7:28.00 with the crazy last K and 400. Kejelcha has shown signs since then that he's already improved (the 10K medal, the 3:47.0 mile) but just hasn't raced a fast 3,000 to show it.
Only thing is that Kejelcha's fastest mile/1500 was almost two years ago now. He's been focused on longer distances - like the 10k and even the half so I think his max speed is now past him. Goteborg was 2018. No way Kejelcha has that potential anymore in the 3 so I don't think he'll go under 7:28 unless he dedicates months for a 3k sharpening which I don't see why he would do that if he intends on being the top dog at 5k-half marathon.
It's not just McSweyn is having a good year. McSweyn seems to be continually improving and he should have gone a little faster than 7:28. He actually fumbled with his bib a few times in the beginning finally ripping it off and throwing it away. If you watch the latter part of the race McSweyn no longer has his BIB.
The only one who has shown he might have a chance is Cheptegei. I really doubt that Cheptegei can do it but he is in the conversation because he has run faster than Komen at 5000m. Therefore he cannot be eliminated as a threat. In a time trial Cheptegei appears to have no rivals at this time, and his pace for 12:35 was 7:33 3000m, so we know that on that day he could have run MUCH faster than 7:33, which already puts him in the low 7:20s.
I don't think Cheptegei would ever go under 7:24. More like a Bekele-type. Bekele didn't have the 1500 speed but did have a monster 5000...ended up a 7:25 best.
I'd like to see Cheptegei get someone to take him through 1600 in 3:57 and then just see if he could run 59s from there.
Berrioer wrote:
The only one who has shown he might have a chance is Cheptegei. I really doubt that Cheptegei can do it but he is in the conversation because he has run faster than Komen at 5000m. Therefore he cannot be eliminated as a threat. In a time trial Cheptegei appears to have no rivals at this time, and his pace for 12:35 was 7:33 3000m, so we know that on that day he could have run MUCH faster than 7:33, which already puts him in the low 7:20s.
His final 3000 was 7:31 I believe.
hgggg wrote:
Only thing is that Kejelcha's fastest mile/1500 was almost two years ago now. He's been focused on longer distances - like the 10k and even the half so I think his max speed is now past him. Goteborg was 2018. No way Kejelcha has that potential anymore in the 3 so I don't think he'll go under 7:28 unless he dedicates months for a 3k sharpening which I don't see why he would do that if he intends on being the top dog at 5k-half marathon.
It's not just McSweyn is having a good year. McSweyn seems to be continually improving and he should have gone a little faster than 7:28. He actually fumbled with his bib a few times in the beginning finally ripping it off and throwing it away. If you watch the latter part of the race McSweyn no longer has his BIB.
We'll just have to agree to disagree. It's 18 months from Kejelcha's 3:47.0. Yes he's running longer distances, but his speed doesn't just die with that. I don't think he is moving to the roads for good any time soon. This season has been lackluster (yet he did run 3:32.69, which is fine). The Ethiopian teams are incredibly competitive, he is going to attempt to make both of the 5,000 and 10,000 teams as nobody is good enough to put all their eggs into one basket. His potential for 3,000 has not gone away in my view, and I expect him to run it strongly on the circuit next year.
Yes I saw this McSweyn stuff, it was pretty minor. He was perfectly paced in great conditions. Can't ask for too much more. He's on a great path of improvement, but that doesn't mean that next year he is banging out 3:29/7:26 for the 1500 and 3,000. Hope so, but I think a plateau is coming (which still would be great for his chances to challenge for a medal somewhere.