When will Komen’s 3000 m outdoor record be broken?

When Taoufik Makhloufi makes the step up to the 3,000. He's great.

BuzzastoDaSilva wrote:

When Taoufik Makhloufi makes the step up to the 3,000. He's great.

He probably gets busted before that happens!

I think Josh could do it right?

Loppas wrote:

BuzzastoDaSilva wrote:

When Taoufik Makhloufi makes the step up to the 3,000. He's great.

He probably gets busted before that happens!

You turds have been predicting that for a long time. Not gonna happen.

Kongen wrote:

Loppas wrote:

He probably gets busted before that happens!

You turds have been predicting that for a long time. Not gonna happen.

Heard about re-testing?

Honestly, the athlete that had the best potential to break it was Mo Farah, as he came closest to matching Komen's 1500m/Mile to 5000m ability, but obviously he never really went for that distance minus that random indoor 2-mile world record he ran in 2014(better showing he might have had a chance). Jakob is the only guy today who seems somewhat comparable over that range, but even he was "only" 7:27.

jakob jacob or joshua have a chance over the next few years. but it is a very strong record.

i don't know that farah could have ever done better than a mid to high 7:20s. He ran one pretty hard in 2016. only got 7:32. they basically aimed to hit 60s every lap and then he strained hard to finish with a 59 second final lap and barely break the UK record. 1/10 second.

2016 was not Farah's strongest year. And I don't know what weather conditions were. But he did not show anything close to low 7:20 ability at that time. And he was going for a fast race that day.

The only way this happens is throwing all caution to the wind and POSITIVE SPLITTING. Komen went out in 1:55 first 800! Both Jakob and Jacob both have a shot. Maybe Mo wants to go for it. Possibly Kipruto.

Urban_Sombrero wrote:

The only way this happens is throwing all caution to the wind and POSITIVE SPLITTING. Komen went out in 1:55 first 800! Both Jakob and Jacob both have a shot. Maybe Mo wants to go for it. Possibly Kipruto.

Kipruto lacks the speed for it. Hasn't done anything to suggest it. 7:30 would already be good for Rhonex.

At the moment, with specific work, the only one who can break it is Joshua.

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

Urban_Sombrero wrote:

The only way this happens is throwing all caution to the wind and POSITIVE SPLITTING. Komen went out in 1:55 first 800! Both Jakob and Jacob both have a shot. Maybe Mo wants to go for it. Possibly Kipruto.

Kipruto lacks the speed for it. Hasn't done anything to suggest it. 7:30 would already be good for Rhonex.

At the moment, with specific work, the only one who can break it is Joshua.

maybe...I think he would have to improve his speed significantly. Maybe I'm wrong but seems like he is the kind of guy who can hold those 60s laps but doesn't have that much more speed. Not sure if i've ever seen him do a 55s lap

He has speed, does regularly 53"-54" on that grass track in Uganda, as he did before worlds last year. If you don't have the neccessary endurance, your speed is worth nothing.

He has a decent kick, which becomes world class in a very fast race, when the kick of others is diminishing. Fun fact, Kiplimo is widely considered an athlete with less speed than Joshua in Uganda, and then Rhonex..who is slower than both in basic speed.

None of them will break it.

12:35 does not convert to faster than 7:20 and Cheptegei lacks speed so I guess 7:22-23.

I don't seen how jakob could shave 7sec off his pb in the next few year. Probably 7:23-24 at best in the next years.

I don't know if kiplimo can still make huge progression but I doubt it. He looks like a fully developped athlete.

So Komen WR is safe for a few more years. All tried (El G, bekele Gebre) but only one got closer than 5sec gap lol.

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

He has speed, does regularly 53"-54" on that grass track in Uganda, as he did before worlds last year. If you don't have the neccessary endurance, your speed is worth nothing.

He has a decent kick, which becomes world class in a very fast race, when the kick of others is diminishing. Fun fact, Kiplimo is widely considered an athlete with less speed than Joshua in Uganda, and then Rhonex..who is slower than both in basic speed.

I'm sure he does have speed since he makes 60s look easy. However, even in his post WR interview he said he probably wouldn't have as quick of a last lap as Bekele had in his (57) and even though he can do it in practice, I still haven't seen a really fast kick in a race from him. If he was in a 13min 5,000m race, there are quite a few others I would bet on over him.

anyways, it will be interesting to see if he even attempts the 3,000m record. Even though Cheptegei said he didn't use it, I feel the wavelight could help a lot as prior fast times from Bekele for instance had awful pacing to start (Bekele's fastest time of 7:25 had laps of 61 and 62 which basically prevented any hope of a WR)

What’s a 7:20 3000m equivalent to for 1500m, 2mi, and 5000m?

Impala31 wrote:

None of them will break it.

12:35 does not convert to faster than 7:20 and Cheptegei lacks speed so I guess 7:22-23.

I don't seen how jakob could shave 7sec off his pb in the next few year. Probably 7:23-24 at best in the next years.

I don't know if kiplimo can still make huge progression but I doubt it. He looks like a fully developped athlete.

So Komen WR is safe for a few more years. All tried (El G, bekele Gebre) but only one got closer than 5sec gap lol.

12:35.36 converts to 7:20.30 which is faster than Komen. Given he can run even faster in the 5,000m, it gives him a nice buffer on the 3,000m world record.

If he prepares well for it, 2-3 months next year, then he could run 7:18-7:19 with good pacing and weather. If he goes for it while preparing 5,000m-10,000m, then yes, 7:22-7:23 sounds about right.

As another poster said, in a 13:00 race, he's not the favourite, but in a 12:40-45, all of a sudden the others are hanging for dear life already, so whatever kick he got left will do the job.

fhdhejjdjdn wrote:

What’s a 7:20 3000m equivalent to for 1500m, 2mi, and 5000m?

7:54 high, 3:26 low, 12:36

Also, the El G, Bekele, Gebre is misleading. El G had only 1 race ever over 3,000m, Bekele had horrible pacing too, and Gebre wasn't ideal too.

Only 1 race going for a fast time. Mo also could have gone very fast in 2015 shape.

People were closer to this record than it seems, similar to the 5,000m.

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

fhdhejjdjdn wrote:

What’s a 7:20 3000m equivalent to for 1500m, 2mi, and 5000m?

7:54 high, 3:26 low, 12:36

Also, the El G, Bekele, Gebre is misleading. El G had only 1 race ever over 3,000m, Bekele had horrible pacing too, and Gebre wasn't ideal too.

I agree. People talk about Komen's record as untouchable but if you look at all those others you mentioned, the pacing was really bad and one bad lap in a 3,000m will be hard to recover from if going for a WR. I think El G's attempt was actually on pace at first but lost it at the end.

Do you think Cheptegei is even interested in a 3,000m WR? seems he is more into the longer races given he's already attemping a half this year.

Karl Farbman wrote:

I am interested in hearing your predictions for when it’s gonna happen.

Never