Coronavirus is super-spreading at the local university ⚠️

I'm sad that the Penn State guy died in June but have been thinking for a long time about Covid and university age students. I know the schools have only been open a short while and there is a lag between hospitalizations / deaths but this tweet from the other day really struck me::

https://twitter.com/andrewbostom/status/1302047711131308032

If that basically holds up, I think those in charge are going to have a real hard time keeping these lockdowns in force. It seems the smart thing to do would be to let all healthy (non-obese, etc) college age students go to college. Keep them away from everyone else and make them self-quarantine when they return to their parents.

IN all honesty,if the zero hospitalizations things keeps up, one could argue it's actually better if a ton of the college kids actually got Covid-19 as then we'd have a huge set of the population with immunity and be close to herd immunity.

Kvothe wrote:

WWRD wrote:

Pretty sure it will super spread at any University. The good news is none of them will die from it, then when they come home from break they'll have antibodies and not spread it to higher risk groups like parents and grandparents. It's a win win.

dozens of articles just like this one:

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/07/02/penn-state-student-coronavirus-death/

Also covid antibodies don't last more than a year or so, which makes your theory about not spreading to family incorrect.

I actually knew this guy at school from a couple years ago, really nice guy, and while what happened to him was really sad, he lived a very very unhealthy lifestyle

Allen53 wrote:

https://i.postimg.cc/1Xjh0qss/Screenshot-2020-07-19-20-16-54-1.png

So 99.96% of the world's population ISN'T dying from hunger? I like my odds! Better than that affliction with only 99% survival rate anyway...

One news report claimed herd immunity approach would take 4 years and cause millions of deaths. We will never achieve herd immunity before vaccines are available which should provide herd immunity. We don't have long term immunity from other coronaviruses so why should it be any different than with this one. Those who had this virus may only have immunity for 3 to 12 months.

A photo of Juan Garcia in one of the news reports would make it appear he was obese if not morbidly obese. Obesity prevalence is listed as 20.6% among 12- to 19-year-olds in the USA in the first link below. 9.1% are extremely obese. The rate for 20 to 39 year olds is over 40%. The college rate was around 30% according to older data from 2012. All the obesity rates are likely higher now. That makes for a lot of college students that should not go back to based on what you posted. Only about 30% of those in the USA are not overweight or obese so there are many who are not healthy. The professors or other employees in at risk groups should also avoid student on campus. Unfortunately many minorities who are in high risk groups may work in service jobs on campus so they cannot work remotely.

I will be interested to see the data 5 to 10 years from now showing whether or not covid-19 was likely responsible for any increases in heart, lung, kidney or other diseases. Some studies already conducted indicated organ damage even in some of those who were asymptomatic.

issuesssss wrote:

The biggest issue here is that you went to Earls.

EARLS.

That’s about as creepy as it gets on the Ave...

Yeah. More likely to die from the Long Islands at Earls than COVID.

hi!! wrote:

A slim guy walks the streets alone, all fussy about his hair being blown around in the wind, trying to keep it perfect like he had it in the mirror. Wanders from place to place, looking for anywhere that seems inviting enough to sit quietly and observe from a corner. Has a beer at a bar, checking his phone often enough to not seem like he came in just to stare. Sits there until it becomes uncomfortable. Walks a bit further and stares longingly into a frat party. Considers just saying "what the hell" and attempting to lose himself in the undergrad world for the night. Fantasizes for a minute, but decides against it. As he walks back home this song begins to play

Stuniingly accurate

Building on this and further debunking Mr "there are dozens of stories like this" guy. In my home state of NC, there have been 4 total deaths, in the under 25 age group, attributed to COVID, in 6 months of a pandemic. The risk to this population is virtually zero.

Don’t lie. You’re not sad. Nor should you be. People you don’t know personally die every day.

I didn't know him, but was curious if there were any pics of him online. It appears he was not just obese but morbidly obese. Sad regardless.

Didn't know him, but since the article didn't mention any underlying conditions, I was curious and went online to see if there were any pics of him. It appears he was not just obese but morbidly obese … which no report will ever dare mention. In any event, his death is sad.

just the facts, ma'am wrote:

Allen53 wrote:

https://i.postimg.cc/1Xjh0qss/Screenshot-2020-07-19-20-16-54-1.png

So 99.96% of the world's population ISN'T dying from hunger? I like my odds! Better than that affliction with only 99% survival rate anyway...

We actually could totally end hunger but it does not fit the agenda of those in charge.

You know, those same folks locking us down and plunging vaccines into our arms for our own good

Movies, watch a football game or any sport, eat at a restaurant, parks closed, school is closed, no fairs or carnivals, bars closed. All the while, here, you can still go to church without a mask lol.

So a lot of stuff has been closed for going on five or six months. Sucks

hi!! wrote:

A slim guy walks the streets alone, all fussy about his hair being blown around in the wind, trying to keep it perfect like he had it in the mirror. Wanders from place to place, looking for anywhere that seems inviting enough to sit quietly and observe from a corner. Has a beer at a bar, checking his phone often enough to not seem like he came in just to stare. Sits there until it becomes uncomfortable. Walks a bit further and stares longingly into a frat party. Considers just saying "what the hell" and attempting to lose himself in the undergrad world for the night. Fantasizes for a minute, but decides against it. As he walks back home this song begins to play

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sg0CeRog-yQ

+1

There have been about 10 times as many deaths from the flu this year for those under 20. I wish the media would inform people of this fact. Kids would be out protesting to get back to sports.

The most recent update I've seen, of this chart, shows 26k cases and still zero hospitalizations.

Kvothe wrote:

WWRD wrote:

Pretty sure it will super spread at any University. The good news is none of them will die from it, then when they come home from break they'll have antibodies and not spread it to higher risk groups like parents and grandparents. It's a win win.

dozens of articles just like this one:

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/07/02/penn-state-student-coronavirus-death/

Also covid antibodies don't last more than a year or so, which makes your theory about not spreading to family incorrect.

The guy died June 30th (meaning he was likely infected in late May or early June). Your argument falls flat because school wasn't in session. Young adults hang out with each other regardless of whether or not school is in session. In Colorado they monitor the wastewater in the dorms and classroom buildings which allows them to identify cases before people are even contagious. Colleges are arguably more safe than their homes (are you sampling your wastewater?). Not to mention that COVID is statistically no more of a risk for college aged individuals than the flu. We don't cancel school during flu season, we shouldn't do it for COVID.

Pull up weekly death totals for those under 25 on the CDC excess death site, there is no difference between 2020 and any previous year. You can pull up NYC in the middle of the pandemic and it is not statistically different from previous years.

Heck in my state, we are getting more non-COVID related excess deaths (from drug overdoses, suicides and people not seeking medical care due to COVID fears) than we are from COVID. The CDC excess death database reveals some interesting things.

This is what happens when they test asymptomatic individuals. A ton of cases with almost no hospitalizations or deaths. The IFR for this (especially among the under 25 crowd, where it is virtually zero) is much lower than estimated. You might actually get more adverse reactions among this group from a vaccine than you would the actual virus. It's better to let it run its course through the schools. The flu is more of a danger to this demographic than the virus.

This is a good lesson in Carl Bergstrom's "Calling Bullsh#t" (buy the book). Dr. Boston is not a Brown University epidemiologist. He is an internal medicine prof. with no work in the field of infectious diseases. He has written books claiming that antisemitism is endemic in Islam. If you look at his twitter feed, you will see that it is dripping with right wing political posts.

But the most troubling aspect of his "data" is that he cites no sources. Colleges have set up COVID dashboards so students and parents can monitor the results of testing. But these dashboards do not disclose hospitalization data. That would arguably be a breach of student medical confidentiality laws. COVID hospitalization data broken down by age is very difficult to find and may not exist in many places unless someone does a study and gets permission to pull the data. And the few places that are actively gathering the data and publishing are not breaking it down by college students (COVID-NET is the CDC source and only breaks down 18-29 and the best study to date could only break down numbers by 18-34, see below). So, where does Boston get zero when no one is specifically reporting COVID hospitalizations of college students? Is he just doing google searches? I did and found one hospitalization of a student at San Diego State (it could very well be that students haven't been in school long enough to see hospitalizations yet). Does he have a real source for his data? We don't know because he doesn't disclose. That is why everyone needs to read Bergstrom's "Calling Bullsh#t" so they won't be duped by politically driven BS data from people like Boston who clearly have a political ax to grind and have no real expertise in infectious diseases or pandemics.

And hospitalizations are another red herring like IFR and deaths. Even if every college student had a very mild case or was asymptomatic, they will seed new cases and cause wider outbreaks. Clearly, college students have shown that they cannot be trusted to adhere to social distancing requirements. There is no reason to expect that they will take proper precautions when they test positive. Just look at the video from Texas Tech.