Will Donavan Brazier break the 800m world record and win olympic gold in 2021?

Donavan hasn't lost any speed. It's more likely his foot as previously mentioned. Also, it's crazy to imply he lost speed because of 1500 training. The man barely runs 35 miles a week and wants to be on the 4 × 4 relay.

He'll most likely win gold given he doesn't get injured. Whose going to beat him if he's healthy? Amos I guess has the only chance.

Zero chance he gets the world record.

WR 15% (but not at olympics)

Tokyo Gold 25%

GL wrote:

"If Amos performs to the extent of his capabilities, I don't think there's anything Brazier can do, but Amos is one of the least consistent guys out there."

In spite of running some fast times in the last 2 years, Amos is in the twilight of his career with his best days behind him. I think in 2012 he was about 5 years older than his listed age, this means he is currently around 30, which is toothy for a half miler.

In terms of Brazier, he has beaten all of the world's best half milers with relative ease several times. I would say he is the overwhelming favorite for gold in Tokyo. As for the record, it is almost definitely not going to happen next year, there is not enough time to make that much of an improvement. We have enough data to say he is a consistent 1:43x performer and 1:42x on a good day; the way it normally works, you are a consistent 1:42x performer and 1:41x on a good day before we start talking about going sub-1:41. Personally, I don't currently see the speed or the strength to come close to breaking the record and in fact if I was his coach I would not risk injury training for breaking the record. Btw, there are a lot of athletes who ran 1:42 in their early 20s and never ran faster than that.

Gold medal yes.

WR no.

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

Jgt11 wrote:

In an off-year, what is the downside to increasing strength? Next year when he goes all-in on 800m for the Olympics he can focus on his speed with the bonus added strength.

And what happens if he never gets the speed back? Being a 47/1:42/3:39 guy might be better than being a 48/1:44/3:34 guy. Getting that strength causes adaptations which might not be what you want for the 800ms. You need to walk that fine line between endurance and aerobic strength.

But given how fast he was indoors (1:13.77 indoors is flying. Indoors tends to be worth .5-1s for most guys) and then slow outdoors (1:15), I am thinking the foot injury is the bigger factor than training.

I refuse to believe that people would actually believe Brazier can't run 47 anymore.

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

vike27 wrote:

I might agree, although, he is only 23. I see him going 1:41 next year but not sure if below that. Maybe in two years.

https://www.runnerstribe.com/features/peak-age-male-800m-runners/

Notice how many people on the list set their lifetime PR by age 25? The 800m is a young mans game. Bazier should be at his absolute peak over the next couple of years. If he isn't a 1:41 low guy next year, I doubt he will ever get the WR.

This year has been a bit disappointing but we have no way of evaluating how much that foot is slowing him down/affecting training.

People don't appreciate this enough. Speed seems to fade much earlier in a career than endurance.

DB - who? wrote:

vike27 wrote:

Do you think Donavan Brazier break the 800m world record and win olympic gold in 2021?

I give him a 15 percent chance to break the world record next year and a 70 percent chance to win gold at the olympics. What are your odds?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSBps2aRhY4

0% chance of breaking the world record.

Good chance to take the gold.

The chance may be low, but 0% is just as ludicrous.

He has to go out as close to 49 flat as possible then hope someone is there until ~550m and just rip.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say something outrageous - Max Virgin or Daniel Rowden will win the Olympics.

Don't come at me

WR - 2%

1:40.91 is pretty fast. Worth noting that Rudisha ran faster than Brazier’s PB on 9 occasions before he managed 1:40.91.

Olympic gold - 50%

He’s clearly the favorite, but there are so many variables that could come into play over the next year. Something like: Brazier 50%, Amos 15%, Korir 7%, Hoppel 6%, Rotich 5%, other 17%.

Are you basing the age comment on anything concrete? Also, this guy has dropped his 2nd and 3rd fastest times ever in the last couple seasons, as well as improving his SB every year since 2016. I don't know how anyone can state with any confidence that he won't be able to run 1:41-1:42 low next year, which would put him firmly in the running for gold IF he can produce it when it counts.

The issue with Amos is consistency, not ability. I have Brazier as favourite purely because he's more consistent, but he's by no means a lock.

GL wrote:

Are you basing the age comment on anything concrete? Also, this guy has dropped his 2nd and 3rd fastest times ever in the last couple seasons, as well as improving his SB every year since 2016. I don't know how anyone can state with any confidence that he won't be able to run 1:41-1:42 low next year, which would put him firmly in the running for gold IF he can produce it when it counts.

The issue with Amos is consistency, not ability. I have Brazier as favourite purely because he's more consistent, but he's by no means a lock.

Not to mention Brazier ran 1:43 low on plantar fasciitis? You'd think that on a board full of distance runners, people would have a better appreciation for the level of discomfort a foot injury like that can cause.

JumpsDoctor wrote:

GL wrote:

Are you basing the age comment on anything concrete? Also, this guy has dropped his 2nd and 3rd fastest times ever in the last couple seasons, as well as improving his SB every year since 2016. I don't know how anyone can state with any confidence that he won't be able to run 1:41-1:42 low next year, which would put him firmly in the running for gold IF he can produce it when it counts.

The issue with Amos is consistency, not ability. I have Brazier as favourite purely because he's more consistent, but he's by no means a lock.

Not to mention Brazier ran 1:43 low on plantar fasciitis? You'd think that on a board full of distance runners, people would have a better appreciation for the level of discomfort a foot injury like that can cause.

But if he has plantar fasciitis why in the f!ck is he running pointless races in an off-year?

What about Amos?

Pretty good odds of winning Olympic gold with only Amos I think a real threat. World record a possibility but if he's going to do it he doesn't have forever. Ages of last three 800 recordholders when they set the record -- Rudisha (23), Kipketer (24), Coe (25).

TrackCoach wrote:

In spite of running some fast times in the last 2 years, Amos is in the twilight of his career with his best days behind him. I think in 2012 he was about 5 years older than his listed age, this means he is currently around 30, which is toothy for a half miler.

He's 26 unless you have documentation that proves otherwise. And while he's not likely to improve on his time from 2012, it was Amos who ran the fastest time in the world last year -- 1:41.89 --not Brazier. If anybody can beat Brazier it's Amos, who has a 44.99 400 PB as opposed to Brazier's 47.02. Amos was still a Junior in 2012 and dropped 5+ seconds from his previous year's best. Pretty unlikely for a 23-year-old to drop that much time in one year.

maybe

No