Will Donavan Brazier break the 800m world record and win olympic gold in 2021?

More like 5% chance of breaking the WR and 85% chance of winning gold (if fit).

I might agree, although, he is only 23. I see him going 1:41 next year but not sure if below that. Maybe in two years.

His coaches screwed up his training and did too much 1500 work, and as a result he lost a lot of speed. His 600m race was abysmal and was a very troubling indicator that he lost sprint speed.

He should still be the strong favorite to win, but don't count out Hoppell.

Doped ugly mega hype is done. DONE. Good riddance.

jeo wrote:

His coaches screwed up his training and did too much 1500 work, and as a result he lost a lot of speed. His 600m race was abysmal and was a very troubling indicator that he lost sprint speed.

He should still be the strong favorite to win, but don't count out Hoppell.

I think the exact same thing about his training. Something must have changed, and I speculate not for the better. You can tell he has lost a touch speed wise. He struggles to get going in the first 200m of the 800m now, and if you look at his races from this year and compare them to previous years, it looks like he is trying much harder to go the same speed now, as compared to the last few years.

The idea that he has lost speed is weird to me given that he has put up his best lifetime times over the last 12 months.

vike27 wrote:

Do you think Donavan Brazier break the 800m world record and win olympic gold in 2021?

I give him a 15 percent chance to break the world record next year and a 70 percent chance to win gold at the olympics. What are your odds?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSBps2aRhY4

0% chance of breaking the world record.

Good chance to take the gold.

WR: 1%

Gold: 60%

If Amos performs to the extent of his capabilities, I don't think there's anything Brazier can do, but Amos is one of the least consistent guys out there.

GL wrote:

WR: 1%

Gold: 60%

If Amos performs to the extent of his capabilities, I don't think there's anything Brazier can do, but Amos is one of the least consistent guys out there.

I think Amos has peaked already and on the decline. His PR was nearly 8 years ago. I don't have reason to believe Amos can regain such form.

His PR may be from 8 years ago, but he nearly matched it last year, and ran another 1:42. Plus he has run 1:42s in the years between 2012 and 2019.

As jabouk said. Amos ran 1:41.89 last year and 1:42.14 the year before, both faster than Brazier's PB.

His 1:41.73 in 2012 clearly flattered to deceive and was beyond his "true" capabilites at the time, dragged along by Rudisha's unreal run, but he's still only 26 and there's nothing to indicate he's on the decline. He's just inconsistent.

KT1 wrote:

jeo wrote:

His coaches screwed up his training and did too much 1500 work, and as a result he lost a lot of speed. His 600m race was abysmal and was a very troubling indicator that he lost sprint speed.

He should still be the strong favorite to win, but don't count out Hoppell.

I think the exact same thing about his training. Something must have changed, and I speculate not for the better. You can tell he has lost a touch speed wise. He struggles to get going in the first 200m of the 800m now, and if you look at his races from this year and compare them to previous years, it looks like he is trying much harder to go the same speed now, as compared to the last few years.

It looks like he's been dealing with plantar fasciitis. It likely affected how fast he could go in training at some point.

GL wrote:

As jabouk said. Amos ran 1:41.89 last year and 1:42.14 the year before, both faster than Brazier's PB.

His 1:41.73 in 2012 clearly flattered to deceive and was beyond his "true" capabilites at the time, dragged along by Rudisha's unreal run, but he's still only 26 and there's nothing to indicate he's on the decline. He's just inconsistent.

You would take Amos over Brazier in a one off race? I find it hard to believe.

KT1 wrote:

jeo wrote:

His coaches screwed up his training and did too much 1500 work, and as a result he lost a lot of speed. His 600m race was abysmal and was a very troubling indicator that he lost sprint speed.

He should still be the strong favorite to win, but don't count out Hoppell.

I think the exact same thing about his training. Something must have changed, and I speculate not for the better. You can tell he has lost a touch speed wise. He struggles to get going in the first 200m of the 800m now, and if you look at his races from this year and compare them to previous years, it looks like he is trying much harder to go the same speed now, as compared to the last few years.

The man hasn’t lost race in a year and he drops three back to back 1:43s on one good foot. He nearly put a second on the field in Stockholm over he last 50m. Terrible coaching.

pointing that out wrote:

KT1 wrote:

I think the exact same thing about his training. Something must have changed, and I speculate not for the better. You can tell he has lost a touch speed wise. He struggles to get going in the first 200m of the 800m now, and if you look at his races from this year and compare them to previous years, it looks like he is trying much harder to go the same speed now, as compared to the last few years.

The man hasn’t lost race in a year and he drops three back to back 1:43s on one good foot. He nearly put a second on the field in Stockholm over he last 50m. Terrible coaching.

Agreed its hard to ask for him to do any better. Once he has some real competition he likely will be able to go even faster. Looks like his track season in done though.

KT1 wrote:

jeo wrote:

His coaches screwed up his training and did too much 1500 work, and as a result he lost a lot of speed. His 600m race was abysmal and was a very troubling indicator that he lost sprint speed.

He should still be the strong favorite to win, but don't count out Hoppell.

I think the exact same thing about his training. Something must have changed, and I speculate not for the better. You can tell he has lost a touch speed wise. He struggles to get going in the first 200m of the 800m now, and if you look at his races from this year and compare them to previous years, it looks like he is trying much harder to go the same speed now, as compared to the last few years.

In an off-year, what is the downside to increasing strength? Next year when he goes all-in on 800m for the Olympics he can focus on his speed with the bonus added strength.

KT1 wrote:

jeo wrote:

His coaches screwed up his training and did too much 1500 work, and as a result he lost a lot of speed. His 600m race was abysmal and was a very troubling indicator that he lost sprint speed.

He should still be the strong favorite to win, but don't count out Hoppell.

I think the exact same thing about his training. Something must have changed, and I speculate not for the better. You can tell he has lost a touch speed wise. He struggles to get going in the first 200m of the 800m now, and if you look at his races from this year and compare them to previous years, it looks like he is trying much harder to go the same speed now, as compared to the last few years.

Maybe a two year plan. Fifteen-hundred metre training has less risk of injury than 800m training. Volunteering to loss one's speed is risky. No guarantee the speed comes back.

"If Amos performs to the extent of his capabilities, I don't think there's anything Brazier can do, but Amos is one of the least consistent guys out there."

vike27 wrote:

I might agree, although, he is only 23. I see him going 1:41 next year but not sure if below that. Maybe in two years.

Notice how many people on the list set their lifetime PR by age 25? The 800m is a young mans game. Bazier should be at his absolute peak over the next couple of years. If he isn't a 1:41 low guy next year, I doubt he will ever get the WR.

This year has been a bit disappointing but we have no way of evaluating how much that foot is slowing him down/affecting training.