Brazier predictions for the 800 tonight/ Official Thread Big Friendly #3

Jonathan Gault wrote:

1:43.84 was Brazier's time for those of you whose live stream froze (seems like everyone?)

I guessed 1:48.8, so again I am closest prediction. I need an award.

Coevett wrote:

Brazier runs 1:43.8 and he's still going to break the WR this season, maybe the first man under 1:40. Jakob runs 1:46.4 and that will be his career PB at 19. Way too slow to out kick Erhiopians in the 5000m.

Brazier ran 1:43.55 at 19 as a collegiate athlete and went on to win in Doha with a CR/AR.

Jakob was already a 3:30/13:02 man and three-time global championship attendee before his 1:46 (at 19). He’s not some untapped talent just entering the professional ranks anymore. He’s more aerobically developed than Cram, Coe, or Ovett probably ever were, but he doesn’t even have top-tier 800m speed for his age group.

Even so, the Ethiopians are too fast for Jakob. In Doha, he took the lead with 400m to go and got killed in the final 200m. He went too fast, but he also had no ability to respond to their speed. That Ovett/Yifter-esque burst is something the Ingebrigtsens don’t have and can’t train for. They simply aren’t explosive in the slightest.

1:42.37

Salvatore Stitchmo wrote:

restrunner wrote:

9 times, 15 times at all.

Actually you are right - good spot! 15 times in the last 39 years!!!! (ever)

And in the last 20 it's been done by only 2 men - Amos and Rudisha and of those 9 times it was done by Rudisha 7 times!

This even reinforces my point about how hard it is and how insane it was people just thought he was gonna go out on Friday night, run and 800 and yeah I dunno, pop a 1.41. Gimme a break.

Exactly.

And I have no idea why one crazy poster has brought Jakob into this discussion. Coe was a bad enough comparison, but Jakob!

11 to the mile wrote:

Impossible Names wrote:

Evidently Donavan Brazier will be running an 800 in Portland tonight at a pop up meet. I'm gonna say he goes 1:41.43,

1:43.97

Wow dude second post in the thread was a winner

Oh Please wrote:

Not enough competition, will run a solo 1:43.8

YES!

Dubs of victory. Damn bruh

Coe running 1:44.0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5zTzMciyxw&t=198s

On this topic here is the deal:

Brazier isn't running sub 1.40

Consider that since Coe first ran under 1.42 back in 1981 it's now 39 years on. (insane to write that - 39 years and 1 month! or 14297 days!). In that time we stand with a WR 0.82 seconds faster and even more telling is there have been just 2 athletes (Kipketer and Rudisha ) responsible for ALL of that improvement. This is important because this single statistic shows how we quite conceivably are approaching the pinnacle for 800m running for human physiology as we know it (as in if there were multiple athletes at 1.41.0 + or - 0.2 seconds it's more likely we would see jumps and even legit challenges on the record much more regularly).

I'm not saying that this is a purely linear situation but if it was another 40 years from 2012 until we see another 0.82 second jump, then we are looking at 1.40.09 in the year 2052.

The evolution in human physiology you would have to be seeing from Rudisha to Brazier isn't a "few years" deal - it's potentially multi-generational, and even then it is quite conceivable a lot of us won't even be around when we get to the point a human runs 2 laps in under 100 seconds.

So the answer is he's not running under 1.40

Can Jakob run 1.44? Of course he can. Jesus if Craig Engels can run well under 1.45 then so can Jakob. He ran 1.46 in his first real tilt at it and if he stays healthy in the next 2-3 years it's a formality if he wanted to do it - irrespective of "targetted" 800m training . He's run 3.30.16 for 1500m for gods sake. Trust me - he can run 1.44.something

If I understand your logic, 1:40.09 should be done in 2043.

I don't agree with the argument, that a big gap at the top is some indication that the ultimate limit is close. I tend more to the opposite: if we would ave seen hundreds of 1:40.91 clockings, but not a single one faster, than this might be the limit.

But the theoretical possible limit will never approached really close by any athlet - it's just almost impossible.

But sub 1:40 will not take some decades - as you have said, those progressions are not linear. The 100m record has improved by 2 tenths within a few years - nobody has expected this. There just wasn't a Bolt, Komen or Bekele in the 800 so far.

Salvatore Stitchmo wrote:

Can Jakob run 1.44? Of course he can. Jesus if Craig Engels can run well under 1.45 then so can Jakob. He ran 1.46 in his first real tilt at it and if he stays healthy in the next 2-3 years it's a formality if he wanted to do it - irrespective of "targetted" 800m training . He's run 3.30.16 for 1500m for gods sake. Trust me - he can run 1.44.something

It has nothing to do if someone trusts you or not. You and nobody else knows the answer.

I don't think he can do this - trust me.

by the time this thread is over all you joggers will be angry with Brazier, because your hopes and dreams were not met. Or were far exceeded.

I got blocked by Chanelle Price for mentioning that she had tripped up Brenda Martinez in the 800. Talk about having thin skin.

Yes you are right - based off where we are now it would be 2043 where we saw 1.40.09 and not 52 - my mistake.

Your opinion that if 1.40.91 was close to the limit we would have seen "hundreds" of performances makes absolutely no sense I'm sorry. This would go completely against the theory of normal distribution which typically is very accurate in statistically plotting a multitude of natural phenomena. Surely I don't need to explain how this could be relevant to an event like the 800m where the best athletes in the world obviously need to have a certain set of physiological criteria to do what they do. There is a reason why running under 1.42 has only been done by 5 human beings ever

I believe that starting with Coe, we were entering the territory of outliers. The next one second from Rudishas 1.40.91 (1.40.91-1.41.91) contains all of 5 athletes. The next second (1.41.91-1.42.91) contains 28 athletes. That right there is your "hundreds" even though I am going to guess that was just a figure of speech you used to imply volume. If you were to plot this - going right through to the 335 humans ever that have run under 1.45.0 you will see back end of a normal distribution or bell curve. I can't put this any nicer - you are flat out wrong.

As for Jakob - again that's fine. But when it comes to trusting what ultimately is an opinion and feel for this distance here is what I know. I have run the 800m at an Olympic Games, a World Championships, meets all over Europe and even competed against a few of the athletes who figure on that all-time list inside the top 20. I do think I would know what it takes to run 1.44 and change, and based on that I know Jakob Ingebritsen can do this. So yeah, I'm going to trust myself on this one - no offense.

restrunner wrote:

Salvatore Stitchmo wrote:

Can Jakob run 1.44? Of course he can. Jesus if Craig Engels can run well under 1.45 then so can Jakob. He ran 1.46 in his first real tilt at it and if he stays healthy in the next 2-3 years it's a formality if he wanted to do it - irrespective of "targetted" 800m training . He's run 3.30.16 for 1500m for gods sake. Trust me - he can run 1.44.something

It has nothing to do if someone trusts you or not. You and nobody else knows the answer.

I don't think he can do this - trust me.

Yes I have to disagree with Salvatore on this one.

Jakob is not an 800m runner. 1:44 is not a formality.

If Jakob had run 3:27 I'd agree somewhat, but he still doesn't do the speedwork. And I'm afraid it must be done. Training of course makes a huge difference to specific event performance.

He is a 5k strength guy. He is much more likely to break 12:50 than 1:45 in his career. And that is due to multiple factors such as: training specificity, race practice and opportunity.

If Jakob runs 2-3 800s for the rest of his career then he probably breaks 1:45. Without that, he doesn't. Which for me means he never breaks 1:45.

Why are you not mentioning the intervals from 1:39.91-1:40.91, 1:38.91-1:39.91, 1:37.91-1:38.91... ?

It seems a certainty for you that they MUST remain empty, but that's open for some discussion.

If the results are normal distributed for sure they must not remain empty, we just havn't seen such a result yet because of the laughable low number of races which have happened so far.

For sure "hundreds" of 1:40.91 results (and not a single one faster) would require thousands and thousands of 1:41 results and so on.

We will never see a runner just coming remotely close to the "limit", it depends on way, way too many factors.

Bolt's 9.58 is definitely worth sub 1:40 and I think Donavan Brazier MAYBE COULD be the man to achieve the equivalent. But for sure it's extremely difficult and he might never come close. Let's wait and see!

Salvatore Stitchmo wrote:

As for Jakob - again that's fine. But when it comes to trusting what ultimately is an opinion and feel for this distance here is what I know. I have run the 800m at an Olympic Games, a World Championships, meets all over Europe and even competed against a few of the athletes who figure on that all-time list inside the top 20. I do think I would know what it takes to run 1.44 and change, and based on that I know Jakob Ingebritsen can do this. So yeah, I'm going to trust myself on this one - no offense.

Congrats to your racing experience (really, I appreciate this) but on the other hand I'm sure I have seen more races than you - and now?

What does "run 1:44" even mean to you? 1:44.00 or 1:44.99? That's a full second difference. Maybe he can do a 1:44.99, but I don't think he will ever give this a serious try (including the necessary training). 1:44.00 - never ever.

I don't see Jakob running 1:44. There are some amazing mid-distance runners that have never run 1:44 and Jakob obviously is a strength runner which is why he continues to get out-kicked in World Championships and is medal-less.