Conner Mantz says 4:46 pace at altitude feels "comfortable" - Indicates he will go out in 1:03 at Chicago Marathon

Were you wearing "super shoes"?

He raced with grit in college. And his comments have added excitement for me to watch his debut. Sounds like he's going to be up front challenging.

Ha no, I’ve never worn them and this was back in 2014. Bekele pipped me by 46 minutes.

American men are never up front challenging. Neither are the women. Keira D'Amato was the pre-race favorite for the Berlin Marathon and the Africans left her in their dust. Was not even close.

The winner also ran 2:15 low. Keira isn’t a 2:15 marathoner. None of us expected Berlin to be won in 2:15.

American men have yet to show someone who can compete at the highest level in the marathon with the exception of Rupp.

He will run between 2:08 and 2:09. His workouts aren't that impressive for running a good marathon. He's just running with the BYU guys who are training for 10k CC.

Typical americanized training, afraid to really do what's necessary to run a good marathon. Running 8 miles at 4:46 pace or 12x1k in 2:58 or a Michigan workout tells me nothing about what you can run for the marathon.

Nike sponsors it and he doesn't have to go overseas. He's probably getting a bag for just running it

American men place more importance on track. Unlike prior years, they now now have a legit world threat from 3000-10000 meters. 1500 is still a problem though.

Update: no American MAN has been successful there in the last ten years. I'm just remembering Sara Hall in 2020.

Not a chance. I heard right here on this message board that it was going to be like 90 degrees in Chicago.

Just curious, what workout(s) tells you what one can run for the marathon, besides the actual marathon itself? Serious question.

2:06:59 - 2:07:10 (with good weather)

1:03

1:04

2:07

boom

Mantz has never had a bad race or even a mediocre race. Even the few times in the past couple of years where he has not won a race - which has only been few occasions - he has always been in position to contend for the win. And, that level of racing will bode well for him going into the marathon. I expect him to run a smart race going into his marathon debut. He learned a lot racing earlier this year at the NYC Half that Kipruto won. Kipruto, who is on a different level, injected some sub 4:30 miles early in the race, even one a 4:20 mile, and Mantz knew he couldn't hang so he dropped off the front pack but he clawed his way back as best he could to finish strong. I am glad to see him shoot for a sub 2:08 and I trust that his training has been closer to sub 2:07. No matter what he ends up with he will be in contention for a great debut and will, no doubt, have a great career. Not all debuts can have perfect conditions but he will have a strong race regardless, if not - and I hope - a great race (sub 2:07).

I don't see this happening.

I’ll bet he doesn’t break 2:10.

His workouts show good general fitness but there's a difference between general fitness and specific race fitness. I think the Hansons did the best as far as doing workouts for specific marathon fitness, they just never got the guys with the best wheels or pedigree.

Some workouts I think we'd like to see:

10 steady/10 marathon pace

30k @ marathon pace

Longer workouts around half-marathon pace

Alan

I'll basically second this.

He for sure is in very good shape, but looking through his strava training there are not many efforts at 95-105% marathon effort of substantial duration (when he uploads all runs).

When I read "comfortable at 4:46-pace" I had at least a 12-mile-tempo in mind and thought ok, he's gonna run 2:04/05.

I might have been overseeing the long tempo efforts but AT MP I didn't find more than a couple miles push towards the end of longer runs.

As he is very fit, I definitely think he's capable of 2:06/07, but e.g. Ryan Hall was so freakin' strong because of the 12-15 mile tempo runs and his marathon simulation runs (before London '08 he did 12 miles medium and 10 miles sub 5 at altitude).

The chances would have just been better when there'd been some 60-90 Minute efforts close to race feel IMO.

So no 2:04:57, but after a 1:03:30 first half a nasty last 8 miles, comin' in at 2:09:40 (and I hope I am wrong and he runs faster!).

Pikachu

I'd rather see a guy like mantz run 1:04/1:03 and finish in a low 2:07.

He does remind me, in PRs currently of Alberto in 1980, but he has smoother form so better running efficiency overall. Comparing him to Ryan isn't a great idea here, as I think that Ryan still wanted to be a miler when younger, he's said so, so his moving up to the marathon was the ideal athlete finally stepping into his event. We got a window into that with his Houston half. We haven't quite seen that from Mantz.

I think that we're looking at a GRINDER, which was the word that came to mind when i was watching his NCAA running. And his approach, both mentally and physically, looks well suited for the marathon, but i am not convinced, if I take off my American homer cap, that he's as suited to the marathon as Hall was. And I would love to be wrong come next sunday, that's just looking at the last two years of results.

I think a 1:04 first half, which would be comfortable, would let him power up to a negative split, especially getting to pick off all the dying guys ahead of him, and a low 2:07 would be in his grasp. My prediction on a perfect race: 2:07:17

I am extremely pleased to see him take a crack at the marathon now and step into it in his prime!