4:47 mile pace, so Pabo Sancho, as wrong as I think he’ll prove regarding Mantz, is correct in that statement.
Ryan Hall's 2:04:58 is 4:46.0 pace. Sure it was wind aided by 1 to 1.5 minutes but it was also unaided by super shoes, so worth maybe 2:04-mid with today's shoes. Khannouchi would have been 2:03 or very low 2:04 with super shoes.
I think Mantz has potential to be the faster than Hall, so yeah, I hope only two US dudes have run 4:46 pace or faster (super shoe converted). That's still 9 seconds per mile slower than the WR, with a ton of dudes between Kipchoge and 2:05. Who cares if none of the active dudes are US. He's aiming and training for higher, like the Japanese guys who are all slower than him in the 5/10, but are hitting 2:04-2:07.
That Mantz said 4:46 = pace for 2:04:58 specifically makes me think he's training for sub-2:05.
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Listened to the podcast. Too much speculation and mid-understandings. He said he had a goal of sub 2:08. That is a good goal. Lots of Americans don’t understand goals anymore, and don’t even make goals. Better to make a lofty goal and fall short than not make any goals at all. He also said he felt good running a some miles at a 4:46 pace and he felt comfortable, and he felt like he could hold that for a long time. He didn’t say he would run that pace for the whole marathon. A sub 2:08 is something he wanted to do, didn’t say he would. Hope he surprises us and makes his goal. If not, he will still do well in the future.
But who does the US have currently running on the roads that has done anything recently that indicates they can run sub 2:08?
What has anyone in Japan done before running sub 2:08? Look at all these guys that ran the Biwa Mainichi Marathon in 2021
Kengo Suzuki (National record holder) went from 2:10 to 2:04. (13:57/27:49 prs)
Hidekazu Hijikata went from 2:09:50 to 2:06:26. (14:03/28:03)
Kyohei Hosoya went from 2:28 to 2:06. (13:38/28:05 prs)
Masato Kikuchi went from 2:11 to 2:07. (13:35/28:04 prs)
Shuho Dairokuno went from 2:11 to 2:07. (13:28/27:46)
These guys would all be 2:10-2:11 guys in America. We'll never know who is capable of this in the US because guys are too scared to go outside their comfort zone through halfway.
What about half marathon PRs/road results? Maybe the Japanese are better suited for longer races as compared to shorter distances on the track? Maybe it isn't about mindset and its coaching/training? I would also guess all or most of these guys made the switch from track to roads quite early in their career.
Now, before you all freak out, nobody is saying Mantz=Llano. Mantz will certainly end his career with faster PBs at any distance they've both run unless I am unaware of some outlier in Llano's resume marching up with an outlier in the other direction for Mantz.
"This debut will be faster than that debut," many of you will say. Correct. Nobody is disputing that. But we CAN compare. This guy has run a half about a minute faster than that guy. And the alleged goal time, if the 1:03 halfway target and all the talk here is accurate, is around 2 minutes faster.
Oh. I just hadn't heard of a U.S. marathon championships since the Olympic Trials in 2020, so was a little confused at what the OP meant. There probably won't be any good competition there anyway, because everyone would be more focused on the majors.
4:47 mile pace, so Pabo Sancho, as wrong as I think he’ll prove regarding Mantz, is correct in that statement.
Ryan Hall's 2:04:58 is 4:46.0 pace. Sure it was wind aided by 1 to 1.5 minutes but it was also unaided by super shoes, so worth maybe 2:04-mid with today's shoes. Khannouchi would have been 2:03 or very low 2:04 with super shoes.
I think Mantz has potential to be the faster than Hall, so yeah, I hope only two US dudes have run 4:46 pace or faster (super shoe converted). That's still 9 seconds per mile slower than the WR, with a ton of dudes between Kipchoge and 2:05. Who cares if none of the active dudes are US. He's aiming and training for higher, like the Japanese guys who are all slower than him in the 5/10, but are hitting 2:04-2:07.
That Mantz said 4:46 = pace for 2:04:58 specifically makes me think he's training for sub-2:05.
I am not sure how hard his 60:55 was for him, but most 61 minute half marathoners are not breaking 2:05.
Slightly off topic, but relevant (I think) but this guy reminds me of Jake Smith in the UK. Similar running form, build and stronger over long distances. Half PB's are close 60:30/ 6:55. Jake is the guys who was pacing a 2:11 marathon and when everyone fell off just finished the race in 2:11 with no fuel.
There are a lot of "predictions" on his Marathon potential being in the 2:05 region, he is no running with NN running team. It would be interesting to see how they both stack up in the next couple of years.
I think Chicago eliminated pacers for elites though pacers would not be assigned to 2:07 marathoners. How much will this affect him not having pacers? Could he go the Sara Hall route and get his own personal pacers?
Why didn't he run London or Berlin if he wanted to break 2.07? But I wish him the best of luck.
Chicago is very fast. A woman has run 2:14:04 on that course. Steve Jones and Khalid Khannouchi ran WRs there. Catherine Ndereba and Paula Radcliffe ran WRs there. The CR is 2:03:45 pre-super shoes, and if the men’s elite fields had been stronger in recent years it could be considerably faster than that. It’s where Ritz ran his PR and Rupp ran 2 of his 3 career 2:06s. Most notably it’s where I ran a lightning quick 2:52:10.
There is some crazy talk going on here. His 10K time is a minute slower than Rupp's so that difference would be about 4 minutes over 26 miles. Yet people here are saying he will beat Rupp's marathon time and some are even projecting a sub-2:05. No way.
40 seconds is not one minute. Rupp never went for a time trial marathon to find out what is the fastest he can do it in. Otherwise he would be a 2:02 runner. Mantz can certainly be in the 2:04 range in a paced time trial marathon.
40 seconds is not one minute. Rupp never went for a time trial marathon to find out what is the fastest he can do it in. Otherwise he would be a 2:02 runner. Mantz can certainly be in the 2:04 range in a paced time trial marathon.
No. He can't. Not anytime soon. He's run a 1:00:55 half. Let's seem him shave 2:00 from that before we start calling for 2:04 range.
He will finish sub 2:10 in Chicago. 2:08:24 is Hall's US debut record. So if he is aiming to fill those shoes then I think he may do it. I predict a 1:04 first half and on pace for Hall's debut record through 20mi then we will see. Michigan Ave can crush souls depending on which way the wind is blowing.
There is some crazy talk going on here. His 10K time is a minute slower than Rupp's so that difference would be about 4 minutes over 26 miles. Yet people here are saying he will beat Rupp's marathon time and some are even projecting a sub-2:05. No way.
No one projected sub-2:05. I pointed out 4:46 is 2:04:58 pace, and I'm pretty sure he knows that. Doesn't mean that I think he runs that on Sunday. Lots of people faster than Rupp in the marathon, in fact most of the people faster than Rupp in the marathon have a slower 10K than Rupp.
40 seconds is not one minute. Rupp never went for a time trial marathon to find out what is the fastest he can do it in. Otherwise he would be a 2:02 runner. Mantz can certainly be in the 2:04 range in a paced time trial marathon.
No. He can't. Not anytime soon. He's run a 1:00:55 half. Let's seem him shave 2:00 from that before we start calling for 2:04 range.
He will finish sub 2:10 in Chicago. 2:08:24 is Hall's US debut record. So if he is aiming to fill those shoes then I think he may do it. I predict a 1:04 first half and on pace for Hall's debut record through 20mi then we will see. Michigan Ave can crush souls depending on which way the wind is blowing.
Alan
- Rupp could not have run 2:02; there’s nothing to suggest that he could. 2:04-high/2:05-low seems most feasible at his marathon best.
- Mantz cannot run 2:04:xx, at least not now and probably not ever. 2:05:37 would be an awesome career best. Sub-2:08 for a runner of his caliber in this day and age is not a stretch whatsoever, and sub-2:07 on a great day could well be within his wheelhouse.
- Leonard Korir is an American and his 2:07:56 is the so-called American debut record, not Hall’s 2:08:24.
- Mantz’s 1:00:55 was run at the end of a very long year in the U.S. Champs which he won. If you consider that and his recent track and road results in the proper context, it’s easy to believe he could run a minute (4.5”/mile) faster in fast conditions.
- Kenenisa Bekele has never broken 60:00 for the half. Titus Ekiru (2:02:57), Evans Chebet (2:03:00), and Lawrence Cherono (2:03:04) have never broken 60 for the half—and those 4 men only bring us to #8 on the all-time marathon toplist. It’s pretty useless to isolate one’s half marathon PR as the sole predictor of their marathon time.
- Rupp ran 26:44 in 2014, but in 2017 when in marathon training he ran 13:54/28:18 SBs on the track and placed 5th at the US Championships 10,000. That year he won the USATF 20k in 59:04 vs. Mantz winning in 59:08, a total wash, and he ran two half marathons in 61:59 and 62:18. Last year he ran his fastest 10,000 since 2016, 27:59 at the Olympic Trials, and was beaten by Mantz before running…2:06 at Chicago, on a warm day.
