Not sure what the weather is going to be in Chicago, but if they get winds in their face, no way Mantz running 2:06-07.
Temp looks to be good. Winds in Chicago can be all over the place. Forecast shows winds from the SE, which doesn't matter because A) Chicago has long stretches going all directions and B) lake shore wind. I've run it twice and if there is wind coming down Michigan it will make those last couple of miles suck hard.
First off, I'll admit I'm a Conner fanboy. He's the most promising American marathon star we have at this point, in my opinion.
In a podcast that just came out, he said he's been doing 4:45 to 4:46 pace for marathon effort tempos at altitude and it feels comfortable. He also says sub 2:08 isn't even his A goal for Chicago and coach Eyestone likely wants him to go out at 1:03. That seems probably too quick on his debut and for anyone else a guaranteed recipe for disaster, but this is Conner Mantz and he's tough as nails. He's proven time and again he is strong and consistent. If anyone can go out in 1:03 and tough out a 1:04 second half it's him.
What does everyone think? Does he break the 2:07:56 debut American record at the Chicago Marathon this weekend? Is he the future? Or overhyped?
In comparison to everyone else… 2:06 isn’t that fast. Conner is super talented and has show insane grit over his college and pro career. Very nice guy who will probably blow everyone’s expectations out of the water. He’s going to have a great career.
It's great to have an American runner going for it in big races. Whether he runs 2:06/2:07 or not, he is at least adding some excitement to the race. I am happy to see a 25 year old top prospect transition straight to the roads. I am hoping for a successful career for Mantz and hopefully he can use that grit to grind to a few victories in the future.
I hope that Mantz does well, but just because he was strong in cross country does not mean he can do the same thing. I follow him on Strava, and his training looks strong, but racing a marathon at a high level is difficult even when you have several under your belt. Those last 10k will feel nothing like a hard cross country race. Marathon is complicated with pacing, fueling, and decisions on when to push harder and when to hold back.
I think 2:08 for Mantz would be super impressive for a first marathon.
Watching him grind Teare and other fast guys into dust in cross country is what I saw and very convincing. He did that two times. He's a faster version of Ryan Hall, who only got second at NCAA XC behind Ritz, with the addition of super shoes.
Well at age 25 Ryan Hall had run 59:43 while Mantz has run 60:55. So "faster" is an interesting word to use. Ryan didn't have the shoes either.
Ignore the hype, look at the data. Sub 2:10 would be a splendid day.
Age doesn’t matter in your mid-20s (many distance WRs were set under 25) training level does. Mantz has been pro for less than a year. It didn’t come out right, I should have used parenthesis instead of commas; I meant Mantz has super shoes, Hall didn’t, so that gives Mantz about 2 minutes shoe boost too besides have more much more impressive cross cred.
You only seem to be able to compare Mantz to other Americans whilst making your argument. If you were to look at Mantz's credentials vs. everyone that has gone sub-2:08, he compares quite favorably. Whether he does it on his first try or not is TBD, but he easily has all of the tools, training, and the mentality to give it a go. Most people paying attention see this.
Mantz got beat by Cheserker in that half he ran 60:55. Cheserek ran 60:37 and also has faster 5k/10k track PRs.
So does that mean Ches would debut in 2:05/2:06? Probably not no?
I really don't understand where these expectations are coming from. None of the data supports it and it his DEBUT. The marathon is hard man.
Also, Ed Eyestone is some marathon genius? Yes he ran 2:10:59 himself and Jared Ward is his best athlete (?) with a PB 2:09:25. But his athlete is gonna debut in 2:06!?!?!
I just don't see the hype. Debut in 2:10, give him 5 years maybe he runs 2:08
Pretty sure Mantz won that half marathon, the USATF National Champs half in SC?
I’m with you on debut. That is the operative word here & why caution is wisely heeded in terms of predictions.
I will say that Tinman’s pace calculator, which I find to be one of the most accurate calculators out there, equates a 1:00:55 half with exactly what Mantz has run for both 5,000 & 10,000, and it equates to a 2:06:50ish marathon. Which is interesting.
Slower for a debut but the super shoes are worth something, despite people pretending or needing to pretend otherwise. Two minutes sounds about right. If nothing else, the shoes protect the legs from falling apart over the last 10k.
2:06 wouldn’t “shock” me, but neither would 2:12. I still think he should go out in 1:04.
His 25 mile long runs and PMPs, one of them 10 miles at 4:47ish pace up at Provo’s altitude, are crazy. Maybe too crazy. We’ll see.
For grins only though, I’m going to predict 2:07:54
I think we’ll see by the half if Mantz is running smartly or has been pulled along at too fast a pace. It takes a lot of experience to get the two halves right - even the GOAT got a little carried away in the first half at Berlin and he paid a price (if you can call setting another WR paying a price). Mantz is no Kipchoge. By the time Kip started his first marathon, he was already maxing his track speed.
Mantz strikes me as smart, so hopefully he will hide in the pack for the first 15 and let everyone else do the work if he can. The real hard racing is yet to come.
While sub 2:08 may be "impressive", I think if he runs slower than 2:06 then not only will he be disappointed, but everyone on the board will be disappointed and we'll have 3 threads going about how he moved up too early and was over hyped...
While sub 2:08 may be "impressive", I think if he runs slower than 2:06 then not only will he be disappointed, but everyone on the board will be disappointed and we'll have 3 threads going about how he moved up too early and was over hyped...
Lol, probably true. But no way can anything under 2:08 not be considered a success.
While sub 2:08 may be "impressive", I think if he runs slower than 2:06 then not only will he be disappointed, but everyone on the board will be disappointed and we'll have 3 threads going about how he moved up too early and was over hyped...
Lol, probably true. But no way can anything under 2:08 not be considered a success.
I think the majority of posters and certainly the “silent majority” will be kinder than that.
