Debate: Who will be the top American woman at the 2017 Boston Marathon - Jordan Hasay or Desi Linden?

[quote]rojo wrote:

Both were teen prodigies (Radcliffe on the global stage - world jr xc champ, Hasay on the US stage) who didn't quite live up to the hype on the track but that's mainly because they didn't know at the time that the track way way too short of an event for them.

Hardly. It was blindingly obvious to pretty much everyone at least 5 yrs ago that Jordan would be a marathoner - smooth stride, endurance but no speed. I must say that historically I had her pegged at about 2:27-2:30. I have definitely revised that to more like 2:23-2:24 on Monday and ultimately I bet she goes under 2:21.

So she didn't look like she was trying hard enough when she got dropped in 2015 and so you think she doesn't fight for the win? Wow. I know there are some ignorant posters but you are in a class of your own.

Hopefully, they can be smart and run together, supporting each other until the last 10K.

That's what the Kenyans and Ethiopians do, so there is no shame in it.

Linden is at a different level in the marathon. Maybe americas most experienced elite marathon veteran at the moment. Jordan will be learning on course on a difficult course at best with no pacers and unpredictable africans. Boston is unlike anything she has run before, the crowds, the press, the course ( 26.2 miles of not so easy terrain). Jordan has done the training, she has raced well leading up, but its Boston.

Lindens fast marathon was competitively run, almost forget the time, she was in the hunt, the girl can race. She has shown that over and over again in the marathon. One stumble by the africans and she can be right there.

Yes, 3rd place at the NYC marathon, with the winner a sub-219 runner is "comparatively average".

Des will stay in the pack. Bide her time. It will seem that she is working her way up to the front as the race closes in on 19 miles. But in reality, she will just be doing what she does. Maintain her strong, steady pace. And, the others that moved too early (And there is always those) will begin to come back. and we have all been there. When we have pushed and start to feel drained, and hear footsteps, with over 6 miles remaining, we know the reality of the situation. A doped-up Kenyan will win, and Des will make a good showing. Jordan will face the hills and be fatigued after, with not much strength remaining by 22 miles, and stagger in at 2:34/2:33. Des will hug her and encourage her to not give up.

Des is our future unless Amy Craig decides to compete soon.

George213 wrote:

Yes, 3rd place at the NYC marathon, with the winner a sub-219 runner is "comparatively average".

It is for Molly Huddle. I knew some would disagree though.

EternalFury wrote:

Hopefully, they can be smart and run together, supporting each other until the last 10K.

That's what the Kenyans and Ethiopians do, so there is no shame in it.

I hope they are side by side going into the hills at mile 16. Forget the predictions - this could be a really fun battle to watch. If they are trading the lead up and down the Newton hills, that would be awesome. Having just finished reading Duel in the Sun about the 1982 battle between Beardsley and Salazar at Boston in '82, we can only hope for something like that. Even if Linden and Hasay are running for, say, 4th and 5th place.

But I'm not immune to the prediction bug. I'm putting data aside and going with Hasay for the intangible of her mother's recent passing and the incredible drive she gets from her mother's presence and memory. She said that when she gets tired, she let's her mom take over and run for her for a bit. That's awesome. She is going to be all-in for this race.

Ok, lets talk about factors now.

Sunday weather looks to be 80 degrees! Monday ( race day) cooling to mid 60's with windy breezy conditions. Key will be which way the wind blows and if it does cool off to mid 60's as weather chart shows.

Debuts rarely end up being a runner's career best in the marathon when all is said and done. Most drop a lot of time from first to second and then it gets tougher. Hasay should run a good marathon, but not a lot of Americans have ever run sub 2:25 and first time out makes that about the ceiling for her in this race, despite the sub 68. Linden is a gamer and competes for the win if there is no 2:19 type doper in the race. For experienced marathoners, the half is typically close to full pace and that's the case with her. I guess 2:24 for Linden, 2:25 for Hasay, which would be a very fine debut. Recall how much better Goucher was than either of them at 10k and she ran 2:25 and then didn't even run faster. Hasay could end up at 2:22 after a few attempts though.

I'm going with Linden. Experience over youth.

NYC had 4 top strong international runners in the men's and women's field and Molly got 3rd. For her I thought it was an average performance. She got dropped early if I remember and was nearly 4 minutes back.

Similar to what Abdi did on the men's side. Not that deep a field and gets 3rd nearly 4 minutes back.

Good run for a guy who is nearly 40 and not done much recently, but not for someone who we are wondering if they might be the future of US women's marathoning.

Hmm, Des was 7th in the Olympics and has a number of top 10 finishes here. This is Hasay's first marathon. I've got Des in this one . I'll go out on a limb and say FTW. Hassay 8th .

Hasays road 10k PR (31:39 Tufts 2014) is just off her track 10000. Shes done quite well on the roads including courses were there's constant uphill downhills ( beach 2 beacon). If nobody presses the pace the first half as usually happens hasay will handle the pace quite easily which will help her get to 35k in a position to a least compete for top 3. Jordan will have a great future in the marathon and she may very well bust out a very good debut, but think anything under 2:25 is a bit too optimistic.

I expect no matter how the first 30k plays out Desi has a game plan. Like in the Oly trials she showed she has the confidence to sit back and reel the leaders back in despite not having blazing fast speed. Shell likely be in lead group most of the time and be able to keep the pace honest without having to front-run the entire time. She's trained to at least match or better her 2:22 and I think is determined to not leave any time on the course this year. Shell won't play it safe in the last 10k even if a podium spot is secured. She'll go for it.

I'm rooting for both and can't wait to watch what happens Monday. Advantage Desi.

I hope that Desi wins because a good race by Hasay is just another blow to CLEAN SPORT.

Just because she is cute with a pony tail doesn't mean as much to me as the fact that she runs for a known drug cheat.

Linden, unless she makes a tactical error and blows up which she never does. At 33, this might be her last chance to win a major. Her ambition/motivation has to be greater than Hasay's. This is Hasay's debut, so no pressure except the pressure to run up to her capabilities. Can't compare her to Salazar because frankly, guys' egos get in the way. Girls actually listen to their coaches. Since this is Hasay's debut, Salazar will have her go out at a sensible pace and then pick it up at the end, much like her half. She'll run well, probably better than expected, but won't place as high as Linden.

I'm giving hasay over linden. For reasons rojo said one thing though I wouldn't read into 1:11 half too much. She runs a ton of mileage she was probably pretty run down.

Doctor Feel Good wrote:

I'll help keep this going for you.

Desiree has unappreciated speed. She has spent very little time in her career focusing on speed but still has run significantly faster than Hasay for 5k and I believe Desiree has also run faster than Hasay for 3k.

False and true. Hasay's 3k pb is 846, linden's is 851.

Hasay's 5k pb is 1528 linden's is 1508.

I may have started the Hasay hype bandwagon but coach Salazar has now taken over and thrown me out of the cab. Hasay revealed today that she said she's the most prepared he's seen anyone for the marathon since he set the WR back in the early 1980s.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/04/desi-linden-alberto-salazar-says-jordan-hasay-totally-prepared-elite-women-boston/