Connor Mantz, 11th, 2:10:25, 3rd American - Are you giving Mantz a pass for his Boston result today?

This.

There's some selection bias here. It's true that the winner almost always comes from the front pack. But that's because the fittest runners self-select into the front pack.

On the rare occasions you see a runner who is "not supposed to be there" stay with the leaders and actually do well, it's because of their increase in fitness rather than some brilliant strategy. In fact, the increased fitness level is probably precisely the reason the runner felt good enough to start running with the leaders. Just because to us the 2:08 guy running over his head and the 2:08-but-about-to-be-2:05 guy look similar doesn't mean that they are.

I also want to point out that in the extremely rare chance that someone like Fauble wins the Boston Marathon, it would almost certainly be a race where he DOESN'T go with the leaders. Does anyone think Fauble is as good as Chebet? No? Then how is he supposed to beat him using the same strategy? But Fauble might have the tiniest chance for a win or at least a very high placing by laying off the pace and hoping that the top pack blows up. It's not completely impossible. Say Kipchoge had really gone for the course record, and the field went with him. Then everyone blows up. Meanwhile, Fauble has a really good day, runs 2:07-8 and wins. Or a weather surprise like we've seen in previous Bostons. It's unlikely, but certainly less unlikely than somehow just grinding Kipchoge/Chebet/Geay/etc. into the ground like some sort of comic book character.

(Note also that in 2018 both Yuki Kawauchi and Des Linden came from behind to win--although in Yuki's case it was a bit more complicated than that. So did Korir in 2012.)

I don't blame Mantz for running aggressively in only his second marathon; he and Fauble are in very different points in their career, and the experience was probably good for him. But make no mistake, Mantz' best chance for a high place AND his best chance for the win would both come by running closer to the way Fauble did. If you're not the best, you're not the best, and if you are, your legs have a way of getting you to the front.

Mantz and Anderson both had the guts to go out there and run hard from the start. Fauble and McDonald just played it safe and stayed back. They just hoped to get a good time and a decent place but were never a threat to challenge for the top spot. If this were an Olympics Trial race Mantz and Anderson would have ran a little more conservative and left those two cautious boys way in the back battling it out for the lower level prizes.

He always finishes races, never much below expectations, and afterwards seems happy and talks positively. Today he said he blacked out the last 2 miles, maybe from hypothermia (body temp 94 deg.), but still gritted out a finish in a good time. Galen Rupp would've DNF'd or jogged it in and not talk to anyone after. Also, Mantz still hops in 3Ks and 10Ks. Seems to be having a good professional career, from what I can tell.

You do make a convincing argument, I'll give you that.

I'm trying to think of an example where someone who had no business being in the lead pack actually ended up finishing in that area and not implode. It's great to see Mantz and Albertson out there in front, but for what? No one gives a crap about who's the first to the half in a mile race except Sam Parsons. Again, no medals for valiant efforts. Only medals for podium finishes.

If the race was run 10 times with Mantz and Albertson going out with the lead pack, how many of those times are we seeing either of them finish without cratering? If the answer is 0, then what business do they have being up there? I'm curious what you think about that.

Agree, no pass, but I don't think it was a foolish move. To be great, you have to be willing to mix it up with the big boys and either have a breakthrough race or flame out. It's like Fauble said, you dont sneak up on the podium. Kudos to Mantz for having the courage to get in the fight.

I also give him a pass.

He sort of HAS to go for it as a runner because he has no other choice. He's put all of his eggs into the marathon basket. It's likely his only chance of success because he isn't going to beat the 5,000m / 10,000m stable of American runners on the track.

Hopefully he's wise enough to understand that his chance of becoming a stud professional runner is slim and it's not just in God's hands etc (mormon), so he can make it last as long as possible and make a big break-through. I think it's possible, he's talented.

Giving passes or withholding passes is not how we are going to build support for US runners. And passes from whom? Keyboard warriors? Mantz and other US runners are not beholden to such keyboard warriors that are so prevalent with social media and message boards like this. It was a gutsy race and, only being his second race, why not push the envelope to see how long he could hang in there. He has plenty of other opportunities on faster courses to go for time. Props to Emma Bates as well for going for the win as well!

I think in conditions like today, it was reasonable that going in, they might think there is a 1 in 10 or 1 in 5. In normal conditions, it's 0 out of 10. It's happened before where bad conditions have led to someone "out of their league" pulls it off.

Even if it's 0 out of 10, I think it's good for the sport that Americans sent it and where up there most of the race. Especially in these championship style races. They had nothing to lose really by doing this. I really hope that they make the Olympic team and do this there. I would rather have my heart broken in the 18th 19th mile as mantz starts to crater than have faubs go to the Olympics and never really go for it.

I like to see our US runners challenging the best. Good for him and Albertson.

I think next time he will be better prepared with training and hopefully sit on that pack rather than pushing the front. You can't win from pack two or three. I give him great respect for the way he ran.

Yes, if he sat back he would have been the top American today. So what? I would rather he gained experience managing from the front pack so he knows what to do in a future race. Mission accomplished.

Good for you Conner! Keep your head up!

I think it was great that he went with the lead pack. His mistake IMO was not sitting at the rear of that pack the entire time instead of spending a lot of time up front

For me, Mantz was the star of the show today. Tuning in just after 10k and seeing him rocking it with the top dogs, while not hot dogging it, was brilliant. Seeing those few camera shots where he was giving everything to catch up to Kipchoge. Brother... if we still had good writers in America, writing about the 2023 Boston Marathon from Mantz's perspective would be a classic piece of sports literature.

Isn’t Mantz like 40? Not bad for a masters runner.

I’m having a a hard time seeing your point you were going somewhere then it just fell flat

That’s interesting because he obviously chooses to race on Sundays. I know a few Orthodox Jews who believe the opposite — it is OK to exercise on the Sabbath but not engage in competition.

Mantz wants to do something special. He is thinking bigger than being top American in Boston. Or top 10 at Boston. I respect that.

and he made it a hell of a lot more exciting for us fans watching, even if it was for “only” 25k

This did not stop him from racing in Chicago...

Mantz's 27:25 (when not training specifically for track) is a solid 10K time for a marathoner.

He got permission haha

Mantz clearly *IS* the best US marathon prospect for the near future. Anyone with half a brain can see that.
He made a fairly goofy tactical mistake today, and paid for it pretty heavily. He will learn from it and be stronger going forward.
He explained his thought process in the moment (basically that he was afraid to be left in 'no-man's' like he was for much of Chicago, and that he was trying to compensate for being a little too timid there), but it was a pretty bad mis-judgment.
If he'd eased off of the lead group, he still would've had Fauble's chase-group to work with, and they hit 64-flat --which was plenty fast enough for what Conner was ready for right now. He would've closed in sub-65 off that, and that 2:08:xx today would've been worth a 2:06-high or so in a more conducive race.

As long as he stays healthy for a while, he's definitely headed for that 2:06 sometime in the next couple years.
Unless Rupp comes back to form for one last run at glory, there's no one else on the scene right now who's likely to best that in the near term.

So no, your conjecture's pretty dumb.